Kamchatka's Bezymianny Volcano At Highest Alert Level

(Reposted from KVERT)

Bezymianny report from KVERT:
Issued: 20120306/2332Z
Current AVIATION COLOR CODE: RED
Source: KVERT
Notice Number: 14-12
Volcano Location: 55°58'N, 160°36'E;
Area: Kamchatka, Russia
Summit Elevation: 9,496 ft (2,895 m)

Prognosis of Volcanic Activity: Activity of the volcano continuously increases. Strong ash explosions up to 43,000 ft (13 km) a.s.l. possible at any time. Ongoing activity could affect international and low-flying aircraft.Volcanic Activity Summary: Activity of the volcano remains high. Seismic activity began to grow on February 12: about 7-19 weak seismic events were registering each day till February 29; about 25-43 weak seismic events and episodes volcanic tremor were recorded each day on March 01-05. Probably there is a preparation of a strong explosive eruption of the volcano. According to satellite data, a size and a brightness of a thermal anomaly abrupt increased on March 02, and continues to increase.Volcanic cloud height: No ash cloud produced at present.Other volcanic cloud information: No ash cloud produced at present.Remarks: Bezymianny volcano is one the most active volcano of the world. In 1955, for the first time in history, Bezymianny started to erupt and after six months it produced a catastrophic eruption with the total volume of eruptive products over 3 km3. The lava dome began to grow in the explosive caldera immediately after the catastrophe and continues at now. 42 Vulcanian-type strong explosive eruptions of Bezymianny occurred in 1965-2011, while 20 of them producing ash up to 10-15 km a.s.l. Last explosive eruption occurred on April 13, 2011.

Supervolcanoes And Why You Shouldn't Worry So Much

It's a pretty quiet week in volcano world (at least until I can get my paws onto the latest GVP report), so I thought I might dabble in the realm of supervolcanoes today, since they are such a hot topic, and very misunderstood.

There has been plenty of hype in the news media surrounding so-called supervolcanoes like Yellowstone, Toba, Rotorua, Uturuncu, and the like. Media outlets looking for a sensational and fascinating story seem to fixate on the apocalyptic scenarios of a Yellowstone eruption, or an eruption so devastating that it wipes out humanity as we know it. While there are supervolcanoes in our midst, and some like Yellowstone that are still seething and breathing, a true supervolcanic eruption has never occurred in the span of recent human history, and probably will not for a very long time.

Yellowstone had its last truly catastrophic eruption some 600,000+ years ago. Journalists and some researchers point out that Yellowstone has a major caldera type eruption around every 600,000 years, and some say the volcano is overdue. But this again assumes that volcanoes actually have a schedule, and conform to our time lines. This of course is absurd. Volcanoes erupt simply when the conditions are met for an eruption, and Yellowstone is a far ways away from anything major. At the very worst, we'd probably see a small phreatic (water explosion) eruption, or a minor cone building event, but even this is far fetched at this point in time.

The ONLY supervolcanic eruption in human history occurred approximately 75,000 years ago in Indonesia. A volcano named Toba erupted, punching a gigantic caldera into the earth's surface, creating a mini ice age, and reducing the population of humans worldwide to around 5,000 individuals. This has been proven from many angles like ice-core samples that show an immense amount of sulphur dioxide and tephra, as well as DNS analysis of humans pointing to a genetic bottleneck around that time.

The next largest eruptions in recorded human history were the eruptions of Tambora in the 19th century, the eruption of Krakatoa (now Anak Krakatau, 'child of Krakatoa), and the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens, and Pinatubo. These eruptions were all on a scale of VEI 6 to VEI 4. Far from the supervolcanic force of a VEI 7 eruption which is required to be classified as a supervolcanic event.

There are no supervolcanoes currently displaying the characteristics of an imminent eruption. The requirements for such an eruption are extremely rare, and complex. First, the magma chamber has to be massive, fully charged, and pressurized, and then it needs an injection of fresh magma from the mantle. Surface observations would include heightened fumerolic and geyser activity, ground uplift and swift deformation, accompanied by multiple explosive events, culminating in the emptying of the magma chamber, and subsequent collapse of a massive caldera. There are NO volcanoes that currently display any of these characteristics... not even Yellowstone or Uturuncu.

Events like these are extremely rare, and require all of the above conditions to occur. Given that the earth has already suffered so many volcanic eruptions, and several supervolcanic events, one might wonder if the Earth still has the magma required to make one happen. It does, and supervolcanic events will happen again... but the likelihood of one happening in your lifetime is so infinitesimally small, they're hardly worth the calculation. In fact, you have a much better chance of seeing a meteor strike the earth, or a supernova in space than you are to see a supervolcano erupt.

Supervolcanoes are terrifying, fascinating, and worrisome for governments to prepare for... but one has to ask... given that we've never had a super eruption in our living history, why would we lose sleep over something that is so unlikely to occur? Most of the worry and hype can be blamed on the "2012'ers", Hollywood, or just plain old Yellow Journalism. Some can be blamed on conspiracy theories, or doomsayers. But truly, it is human nature to be on guard about any threat to our existence, and while the threat exists, we will always pay attention. I however will never lose any sleep worrying about Yellowstone. 

El Hierro Eruption Officially Over?

Reports from earthquake-report.com are saying that INVOLCAN will officially declare the eruption at El Hierro to be over today, possibly lowering the overall alert level to "green" and allowing the village of La Restinga to slowly return to normalcy. Tremor for the past few weeks has been at a minimum, with little to no changes, save the very slight increases and decreases in amplitude, and occasional small earthquakes. For now it seems, the eruption of "Bob", the submarine volcano that ALMOST made it to the surface of the water, is over.

This however does not mean that activity on the island as a whole is finished. Indeed, deformation is still occurring, and earthquakes are getting shallower at other locations around the island. So, while the village of La Restinga may be able to breathe a sigh of relief that "Bob" has gone to sleep, the rest of the island as a whole is still on pins and needles. The last eruption of El Hierro occurred in the 18th century, and lasted two years.

While many volcano enthusiasts and scientists alike were watching El Hierro with anticipation of being able to see a well-documented Surtseyan type eruption (which ended up not happening), the island chain of Jebel Zubair in Yemen pulled a fast one on us and had an island-producing eruption behind everyone's back. Quite frustrating if you were hoping to witness the actual birth of an island from start to finish. It's really too bad that the Zubair group of volcanoes isn't really monitored that well, or we might have gotten our wish.

All things said and done, the ending of the El Hierro eruption, and the lowering of the alert level for La Restinga will likely come as a relief to islanders, as they have been hurt economically by the closure of the fishing port, and the hotels/cafe's which were evacuated during the heightened alert. While the local and Spanish governments might have used the eruption as a tourist draw, like they do on Hawaii or Iceland, the local media hyped the story and scared lots of people and tourists from the island. Only bloggers, and locals were actually reporting on this eruption objectively (or close to objectively), which has given me much more respect for bloggers and freelance journalism.

In any case, my best wishes to the residents of El Hierro, and hopes that if activity does resume, or start in another area, it will be as mellow as the eruption of "Bob", and merely be an interesting, not violent, occurrence. Time will tell if the island has gone back to sleep, but as far as the local government and the scientists at INVOLCAN are concerned, it's time to consider the eruption over... but a word of caution, I'm pretty sure volcanoes don't have to follow government law or statements... we're living on their schedule, not the other way around.

Even though the eruption has "officially" ceased, there will be some remnant activity at the volcano, such as degassing, and occasional structural adjustment quakes.

Tremor Gradually Increasing Again At El Hierro

Harmonic tremor at El Hierro is very gradually increasing, at an almost imperceptible rate, but it is occurring. The tremor from yesterday to today is now about twice as strong as it was, but is still very low, and the eruptive vent is not displaying any surface activity at this time. This could mean that the magma is slowly (and I mean VERY slowly) building up again and is re-pressurizing the vent. At this time however, this is all uncertain, and we will need to wait and see if this is an anomaly, or a pattern.

Tremor readings at El Hierro, showing a very slowly increasing amplitude.

The eruption at El Hierro has been at a very low level the past couple of weeks, but is still apparently ongoing. The eruption is being compared to submarine eruptions in Hawaii such as Loihi, in that underwater flows are continuing slowly, but surely. Degassing is still taking place, although at a very low level compared to a couple of weeks ago. The "Jacuzzi" is spotted intermittently, but remains weak and doesn't stick around for long. It is possible that the activity could resume, or simply diminish.

2.0 Magnitude Quake Strikes Eyjafjallajökull

A Magnitude 2.0 quake struck the Eastern flank of Eyjafjallajökull today, near the same spot of the initial fissure eruption at Fimmvörðuháls. There could be many explanations for this quake, such as structural settling of the post-eruption fissure region, or resumed intrusion of magma into the Eyjafjallajökull-Katla transform region. It is simply too early to tell as this quake pretty much happened within the last hour, so this will be a short post until/if anything further occurs in the region.

There were also two >1.0 mag quakes within the Katla caldera.

Other areas of Iceland experiencing heightened seismicity include the Reykjanes peninsula near the Brennisteinsfjöll volcanic field where more than 27 quakes, two above magnitude 3.5, have struck within the last 24 hours. An area to the East, near Hengill volcano is experiencing continued seismicity due to geothermal exploration and power generation (Iceland is the worlds biggest user of geothermal energy). The quake swarm at Brennisteinsfjöll is strong, and is probably related to magma dike intrusion, however the area has not seen any eruptions since the 14th century, so it is difficult to say what's happening here. Harmonic tremor is being detected at this location, so the quakes are most likely volcanic in nature.

Tremors at Reykjanes peninsula within the last 48 hours.