Magnitude 7.4 Quake Strikes Guatemala

A Magnitude 7.4 earthquake has just struck off of the coast of Guatemala in another Pacific subduction quake. There were no immediate reports of damage, and the inland appears to have been spared major shaking due to the mountain ranges that seem to have served as a buffer. The quake occurred off of Guatemala's west coast at a depth of 41.6km, which is also why the surface intensity must have felt a bit lower (shallower quakes are typically a lot more damaging).

Google Earth snapshot with USGS real time quake plugin.

There are no immediate detailed reports for this quake. A blog on CNN is the most up-to-date at this time. There was no threat of a tsunami according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, who's statement is below:

"TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
EWA BEACH HI 643 AM HST WED NOV 07 2012
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.
NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 0636 AM HST 07 NOV 2012 COORDINATES - 14.0 NORTH 92.2 WEST LOCATION - OFF THE COAST OF CHIAPAS MEXICO MAGNITUDE - 7.5 MOMENT EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT.

A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED. "

There are many volcanoes int he area, as this epicenter lies along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire. Volcanoes in the area include (from NW to SE):

Tacaná
Tajumulco
Santa Maria (currently erupting)
Almolonga
Santo Tomás
Tolimán
Atitlán
Fuego
Acatenango

Quakes of this magnitude can affect seismicity in active volcanoes, especially ones that frequently erupt, or have a very pressurized magma chamber. It is unclear at this time whether or not this will be the case.

Very Large 7.7 Mag Quake Reported Off Of Canada

A magnitude 7.7 Earthquake has struck off of Canada's West Coast near Graham Island Queen Charlotte Island. The depth was a shallow 9km deep, along the Pacific subduction zone. It is unclear if there was any damage or if a tsunami has been generated. The quake occurred at 8PM which is only a few minutes after I am writing this. Below is a screenshot of the epicenter location.

Google Earth/USGS snapshot of location of 7.7 mag quake.

Aside from the linked article above, this quake is so fresh that nobody yet knows the implications. I will update this article as more info becomes available.

.

Image from USGS.gov detailing the shake strength of the quake.

UPDATE: According to WFAA a tsunami alert was issued from Vancouver Island, British Columbia to Cape Decision, Alaska. Residents are urged to move to higher ground. This is likely a precaution but if you are in the area please do not hesitate to seek higher ground.

A mag 5.8 afterschock occurred a few miles SW of the epicenter.

The island is lightly populated by what appear to be logging towns. Looking at Google Earth reveals several towns in the area nearest the epicenter. Those towns are:

Sewell Inlet
Skedans Village
New Clew
Sandspit
Skidegate
Queen Charlotte
Tlell
Port Clements

It is likely that these towns sustained some damage, but reports will likely be slow to come from the region.

Here is an update from the Tsunami Center:

From: tsunami-information-ioc@lists.unesco.org
Date: October 27, 2012, 11:14:14 PM EDT
To: IOC_Public_Lists@ptwc.noaa.gov
Subject: [Tsunami Message - IOC] Tsunami Information Bulletin
Reply-To: tsunami-information-ioc@lists.unesco.org

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001

PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0313Z 28 OCT 2012 THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA... WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. ... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ... THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 0304Z 28 OCT 2012 COORDINATES - 52.9 NORTH 131.9 WEST DEPTH - 10 KM LOCATION - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION MAGNITUDE - 7.1 EVALUATION A WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. THE WEST COAST AND ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE INFORMATION REGARDING ANY LOCAL TSUNAMI THREAT TO COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.

The information provided on this email service does not originate with UNESCO. UNESCO is transmitting this information on an unofficial basis. The official warning messages are sent by governmental authorities through the Tsunami Warning Focal Points (TWFP) and the designated national authorities. UNESCO does not warrant, guarantee, or make any representations regarding the timeliness, currency, correctness, accuracy, reliability, or other aspect of the characteristics or use of the information available through this email service.


UPDATE:

CNN is now covering the story and has a live blog of all developments at http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/27/quake-with-a-magnitude-of-7-7-strikes-off-canada-coast/?hpt=hp_t1

UPDATE

so far 13 aftershocks ranging from 4.0-58 have occurred. Likely aftershocks will continue for up to a week or longer, with diminishing magnitudes.

Italian Geologists Convicted Of Manslaughter

Now usually I don't get into the politics of science, but this article today on NBCNEWS.com and other sources really sent me for a loop. In 2009, a deadly quake occurred in Italy that resulted in destruction of many historical sites, residential homes, and other buildings. While the quake's magnitude was not extremely large, the structures in Italy were ill-prepared for a somewhat strong, and shallow quake.

Let's set the scene. Prior to this quake, there were a few smaller tremors, and this prompted the Italian government to ask during a press conference of their geologists, whether or not those quakes were a precursor to a larger quake. This is a very fine line for scientists to cross. First of all, it is nearly impossible (nay, it IS impossible) to 'predict' earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Does the scientist say "Yes, there is that possibility", and cause panic? Where would people go? Where would the epicenter be? What sort of damage? How strong a quake? These are questions which scientists would never be able to answer with certainty. The safe answer in this case is usually "There is no proof that smaller quakes will cause bigger ones". Of course, that is the scientific method. Going out of those bounds is called 'conjecture'.

The Italian government accused the geologists of 'failing to predict the earthquake', which has resulted in their conviction. "Failing to predict an earthquake", just let that sink in for a second. Failing to predict an earthquake is like failing to predict the winning lottery numbers. Yeah, there's about a 1:1,000,000,000,000 chance, but I guess the Italian government must see this as a significant figure of some sort.

Clearly, (and this is happening throughout the world in most countries) the Government does not have any sort of grasp on what science is or what it is capable of doing. And now, scientists who were honestly doing their best to keep people safe are being strung up like sacrifices to the earthquake gods. It is plainly pathetic, shocking, and insanely ignorant to convict geologists of failing to predict a large earthquake. Where was their funding for such a project? Were they supposed to magically fabricate instrumentation from the future that would send them an email warning? Come on now!

This problem can easily occur anywhere in the world (the problem of a scientifically ignorant government hellbent on placing blame on someone). It could easily happen here in the USA, where 99.8% of our elected officials are either religious, have no scientific background, and are mostly legal professionals (good at arguing esoterics and rhetoric, not so much with scientific fact). Indeed, in the USA, most politicians  especially on the right, believe in creationism, the second coming, and deny most things scientific like environmental studies, and other data in the name of their religion, or capitalism.

There is very little your average citizen can do about this unfortunately. People seem to love the things that science produces (TV's, cars, the Internet), but HATE it when scientific findings challenge long-held beliefs or superstitions, (like gods, prophecies, faith), and will absolutely turn on scientists at a whim. In my opinion this is absolutely abhorrent, and the only way this is going to stop is if we start telling our governments that we want SCIENTISTS on Science Committees (not all pastors, preachers, and ideologues). I can wish, I can hope, but the only way this is going to change is for people to become aware of the implications having a scientifically ignorant government produces.

In the meantime, my thoughts and hopes go out that these poor Italian scientists will be exonerated by an appeal, or that international pressure is hot enough to earn them a full pardon, because frankly, the Italian government at this time should be absolutely ashamed with this witch hunt.

And that's my piece.

*****UPDATE10/24/12*****

Two top Italian scientists have quit in protest of the ruling according to CNN. Physicist Luciano Maiani Is quoted as saying "The situation created by the sentencing yesterday on the facts from L'Aquila is incompatible with a clear and effective performance of the functions of the commission and its role as a consulting bodies for the state."

In addition to his departure, the Italian Director of their volcanic and earthquake monitoring program also quit, saying (which absolutely concurs with my point in my article) "To predict a large quake on the basis of a relatively commonplace sequence of small earthquakes and to advise the local population to flee" would constitute "both bad science and bad public policy."

It is unfortunate but highly understandable that scientists would not want to work for a government that feels like it can simply throw them under a bus at the first sign of trouble. This could be the beginning of a trend that could see many government employed scientists leaving their employ to other countries, or private industry.

It is appalling to me that governments could be so ignorant as to basically say "I thought you scientists knew everything, well, we had an earthquake and you didn't warn us". A high-school educated science student has more sense than this, and for government officials to take a position of extreme ignorance in order to point a finger at someone is frankly, insane.

New Concerns About Campi Flegrei in Italy

There are less than 20 so-called "supervolcanoes" on Earth, and of those some are well known, and some are not. From Yellowstone to Taupo, Toba to Uturuncu, and more, we know that these volcanoes erupt with extreme volatility, yet very rarely... with the exception of some. The most recent magmatic eruptions from any known supervolcanic caldera has occurred in the Aira caldera in Japan, where the resurgent Sakura-Jima stratovolcano has been erupting in the center of the caldera for many decades. The most recent actual supervolcanic eruption (VEI 8) occurred over 75,000 years ago at Lake Toba volcano in Indonesia, which, according to widespread genetic analysis, may have reduced the modern human population to under 5,000 individuals worldwide (although the maximum population at that period has never actually been quantified).

Indeed, supervolcanoes are a terrifying thought, however these events are so rare, and nearly unpredictable (according to current science) that one should not even sweat one drop worrying that this may occur...

But this is not the case in Italy, as the Campi Flegrei volcano is again in the media spotlight (as occasionally Yellowstone or Uturuncu is when news outlets want some ratings).

As I have reported previously on this blog, Campi Flegrei is the site of a study that seeks to better  understand the dynamics and goings-on in the magma chamber beneath Pozzouli, Italy. The area boasts a population of over 3 million people, and any eruption from the restive caldera would be of grave concern to the government, and to the population. As recently as 2010, industrial drilling has taken place at the volcano, however once scientists proposed a drilling operation that would reach the magma chamber, unfounded concerns by non-experts forced the operation to be on hold until recently.

Now, a team of geologists will drill some 3.5+ km into the magma chamber in an effort to monitor and detail the dynamics of one of the world's most active super volcanoes. The last eruption from the Campi Flegrei field produced the Monte Nuovo cinder cone in 1538, which was documented thoroughly by local witnesses of the time. Earlier volcanism produced several solfatara fields, and modern-day activity has consisted mostly of fumerolic/phreatic activity, and gradual uplift of the caldera area, which in the 1980's prompted evacuations of some areas due to the rate at which the land was rising.

Current uplift has left some modern and ancient nautical ports/docks inaccessible due to he gradual and constant uplift of the land. In one port, the land has risen so much that the cement boat launch platform that used to serve the area pre-1970 is now so elevated that you might consider using it as a diving platform rather than a place to launch your boat.

Campi Flegrei is monitored by the Vesuvius volcano observatory in Italy (Vesuvius, another powerful and notorious volcano is located a mere 15km East of the Campi Flegrei Caldera), and lately, no warnings have been issued in regards to seismic swarms, magma intrusion, or increased fumerolic or solfataric activity in recent memory.

There is not enough data that currently exists at this time to say what the next phase for this sleeping giant would be, but most sources that know what they're talking about would tell you this: A super volcanic eruption is a rare event, which requires rare circumstances. The conditions at Campi Flegrei, and every other super volcano in the world suggest that while we are now aware of the existence of such volcanoes, we should sleep well at night knowing that none of them are currently capable of producing the conditions for such a natural disaster. Not even Yellowstone.

Large Quake Swarm Under Herðubreið in Iceland

A large swarm of earthquakes is occurring just NE of the Askja caldera in Iceland. This began sometime yesterday and continues to the time of this writing (see below pic). It has recently been noted that Askja caldera was strangely ice free during the cold months, with the water still quite cold, yet unfrozen. Some theories about this pointed to possible underwater fumeroles, to chemical changes, and other theories, but as of yet nobody can fully explain why.

Picture graph from Iceland Meteorological Office


The current swarm of earthquakes is most likely related to magma dike intrusion. Currently I am unable to determine the depth of these quakes, but most quake swarms in Iceland are volcanic in nature, given that the entire land of Iceland is basically riding on top of a mantle plume, and is also smack-dab on the middle of a spreading ridge between the North American and European plates which are drifting away from each other.

The swarm's location is actually under a "tuya" named Herðubreið. A tuya is a volcano that most likely formed underneath a glacier, but never pierced the surface to produce an explosive eruption. There are many examples of tuyas in Iceland, Canada, Alaska, and other cold regions of the world where volcanism occurs. Most tuyas were formed during the ice age, as the ice back then was extremely thick and not even a volcanic eruption would have been able to break free of the ice. Herðubreið is theorized to have erupted in the last glacial ice period.

The nearby volcano, Askja, has also seen some recent possible activity (I covered the strange happenings at Askja in a previous post). The last time Askja erupted, according to the Smithsonian GVP, was in 1961 and produced lava flows from a fissure vent system near Öskjuvatn lake. The caldera forming event occurred in 1875, and was one of the largest eruptions seen in historical times by Iceland (with of course the exception of the famed Laki eruption that has been blamed for famine in Europe and the eventual catalyst for the French Revolution). An eruption from Askja today would likely consist of fissure fed lava flows with some minor explosions. The last report on activity at Askja included a satellite photo that seemed to show some very minor ash deposits near a crater on the rim of the lake, which may or may not be the result of an eruption (it could also be that it was ash was blown that direction from another deposit).

It is completely unknown at this time whether Herðubreið is an active volcano, however given the quake swarm, I would suspect that it is not completely dead. As Chaiten volcano, and Nabro volcano both recently proved, volcanoes long thought to be dead can spring back to life without warning. This is more than true in Iceland, so Herðubreið is a volcano that should be monitored in my opinion (and I am quite sure that it is now). There is no way to tell what type of eruption might occur at Herðubreið, but I would suspect that if any eruption occurs, it will be explosive. There are no towns or villages near Herðubreið as it is in one of the more remote and inhospitable locations in Iceland, so the danger level from pyroclastic flow or otherwise is quite low, however its location could pose a nuisance from ash to Europe.


*****UPDATE 5/18/2012*****

The quake swarm under Herðubreið is still ongoing at this time. Approximately 15+ quakes have occurred under the volcano within the last 48 hours.

Katla Reported To Be Melting Ice

A report from the Iceland Volcano and Earthquake Blog by Jon Frimann seems to suggest that Katla volcano in Iceland has been experiencing some ice melt and creating some jökulhlaups (glacier outburst floods). Jon suggests that a geologist who is close to the monitoring efforts on the volcano is recording harmonic tremor since April 28th, which suggests magma is on the move, and possibly making contact with the base of the glacier.

The months of April and May have so far been pretty quiet for the volcano when it comes to seismicity. While there have been many small earthquakes, they are few and far between. Tremor is not necessarily registered as an earthquake by seismometers, but is picked up by waveform monitors designed to listen to this type of tremor. Harmonic tremor typically denotes the movement of magma within a system, and is typically seen as a precursor to a potential eruption...

But then again, oftentimes (a recent figure from the USGS states something more like 90% of the time) harmonic tremor and magma intrusion doesn't lead to an eruption. Personally I would not go ringing the alarm bells yet on Katla volcano. If it was actually gearing up for an eruption, it is highly likely you would see many more rock fracturing earthquakes, followed by land swell indicated by GPS measurements. This would most likely take at least 1-2 weeks given the history of many Icelandic volcanoes, and would give us plenty of warning ahead of time.

Indeed, there has not been a recent eruption in Iceland that did not give off some fairly obvious warnings before the main event. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull was preceded by GPS measurements that indicated the mountain was swelling outwardly, then harmonic tremor/volcanic quakes, ultimately resulting in the fissure eruption at Fimmvörduhals, and finally the main caldera eruption at the summit. Katla, despite its ongoing geothermal action, has not yet displayed the sequence of events that suggest an eruption is imminent.

Katla volcano will erupt in the future. Maybe even the very near future. But right now, I wouldn't hedge any bets on this being really soon. As the summer months warm Iceland, ice will most certainly melt, and it will be easier for geothermal heat to assist in this process. There will undoubtedly be adjustments to the earth's crust when the level of ice falls, and seismicity will probably pick up a little bit. For now, I (and I'm sure Jon Frimann) will be watching Katla a bit more closely. 

Japan's Iwo Jima (Ioto) Volcano Showing Signs of Activity

A report from Japan's Meteorological Agency indicates new activity at the famed WWII island of Iwo-Jima (Ioto). The report details that a new fumerole has opened, and there was water discoloration in the water near the island. Famed for its role in WWII when US forces were striking at Japan, most people don't realize it is actually an active volcano! While Iwo-Jima didn't have explosions during the war (without the aid of bombs and artillery), the island constantly fumes with acidic pools, fumeroles, and is prone to frequent, and small, phreatic eruptions.

The Smithsonian GVP characterizes Iwo-Jima here:

"Ioto (also known as Iwo-jima) in the central Volcano Islands portion of the Izu-Marianas arc lies within a 9-km-wide submarine caldera. Ioto, Iwo-jima, and Io-jima are among many transliterations of the name, which means "Sulfur Island;" the volcano is also known as Ogasawara Io-jima to distinguish it from several other "Sulfur Island" volcanoes in Japan. The triangular, low-elevation, 8-km-long island narrows toward its SW tip and has produced trachyandesitic and trachytic rocks that are more alkalic than those of other Izu-Marianas arc volcanoes. The island has undergone dramatic uplift for at least the past 700 years accompanying resurgent doming of the caldera. A shoreline landed upon by Captain Cook's surveying crew in 1779 is now 40 m above sea level. The Moto-yama plateau on the NE half of the island consists of submarine tuffs overlain by coral deposits and forms the island's high point. Many fumaroles are oriented along a NE-SW zone cutting through Moto-yama. Numerous historical phreatic eruptions, many from vents on the west and NW sides of the island, have accompanied the remarkable uplift."

The island rises from the seafloor to the surface due to the Pacific and Asian plate subduction zone, very close to the Marianas Trench, the deepest chasm on earth, where famed film director James Cameron just set a new depth record for an upcoming documentary on the trench. The Marianas Trench is a result of severe collision and subduction of the two plates and is prone to frequent submarine, and island volcanism, as well as very powerful earhquakes ranging up to 8.6 in magnitude (as far as we know). This is South of the fault that caused the devastating 9.0 earthquake in Japan last year which resulted in a large tsunami, and damaged the nuclear power plant at Fukushima.

Other volcanoes currently erupting in Japan include Sakura-jima, Kirishimayama (Shinmoedake), Miyake-jima, Suwanose-jima, Satsuma-Iojima, and Fukutoku-Oka-no-ba.

Japan, much like Indonesia, Russian Kamchatka, The West Coast of the USA, and the entire coast of South America, is part of the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, and is quite prone to earthquakes and frequent volcanic eruptions. Most eruptions are fairly benign, and Japan has a large appetite for geothermal energy, and volcanic hot springs which the locals consider great medicine for skin ailments, and skin health. Locals love to use the hot water, and fine ash for exfoliation, and relaxation, and the volcanic resort towns are world renowned for their innovative use of what most people consider to be a dangerous and destructive force... but when your culture is as old as some of the volcanoes themselves... well, you either adapt or you don't!

A follow up also on the purported activity at Japan's Mt Fuji, which I touched on a while back. NO new info, video, photos, or anything of the sort has confirmed the news report from Japan about a "row of new craters" on the eastern flank, and recent satellite photography did not reveal these features on the mountain. I suspect that someone was rather mistaken, and wished to hype up the possibility of the eruption. In my previous blog post on Mt. Fuji, I pointed out that I was highly skeptical of the possibility of eruption, due to Fuji's worldwide fame, and the swiftness at which social media can cover such an event. Fuji is not an inconspicuous volcano, and I assume if there was ANY activity, it would be huge news quite fast.

My Beef With a Wired.com Article [Opinion piece]

Recently I happened upon an interesting article (or rant) on Wired.com's Eruptions blog, where the author, Erik Clemetti had challenged readers to describe or otherwise link the technology that would be required to successfully predict an imminent volcanic eruption. You can find my comments in the comments section of the article, but I was immediately like one of those kids who KNOWS the answer to the question in any school class raising his hand "Pick me! Pick me!".

Recently I started looking into what it would take to predict a volcanic eruption. I had seen several National Geographic specials about volcanic eruption prediction, and the pains to which some scientists have gone to make this sort of method or technology a reality. Erik seems to believe that A) No progress has been made and B) that it never will be... Allow me to retort!

First of all, there are some VERY interesting technologies out there to which he might be unaware. One such technology involves using muons (or more specifically, muon detectors). In a recent project undertaken by Japanese scientists, it was shown that placing muon detectors in a 360 degree pattern around a volcano, you can construct a complete 3D image of the volcanoes magma chamber. This technology works by calculating the number of muons flowing through a point in this 3D space to reach its destination. Muons thankfully are formed by the cosmos, so you need no machine, no projector, no generator to produce muons. They fly from all vectors and angles, and continue on uninterrupted until they collide with something (usually something VERY dense like lead, rock, etc). The absence of resistance from the muons travels (ie, the more muons that hit a certain detector at a certain angle) indicates a weak resistance force. This in turn indicates a magma chamber, or void space. This data is then used to create an actual 3D image of the magma chamber... and let me say, I would be skeptical too if I didn't see the tech work on TV. It is now being used to map the chambers of both Mt Shasta in California, and Mt Vesuvius in Sicily.

There are also other very good tell-tale signs that an eruption could be about to occur. Harmonic tremor and long-period events (one in the same really) indicate rising magma underneath the surface. While a recent article about Santorini on MSNBC pointed out that scientists say "90% of the time, magma intrusion does not lead to an eruption", persistent harmonic tremor has preceeded a great many powerful eruptions, most notably (and why harmonic tremor is now considered to be a precursor to an eruption) with a Columbian volcano (Galeras) that erupted, killing many including the volcanologists at the summit), even after the volcanologists had warned that an eruption was imminent. This eruption WAS predicted, and the prediction was ignored.

However, all volcanoes are different. What worked at Galeras does not say, work at Mt Shasta, nor could the same exact method be applied to a great number of volcanoes int he world. Plainly speaking, volcanic eruptions could only be predicted by using specific methods for specific volcanoes, until the day that we have such technology that can predict magma currents in the mantle to the lithosphere with as much accuracy that we do with weather.

Currently, we can tell a volcano is getting ready to erupt by many factors, such as increased harmonic tremor (undetectable without instrumentation most of the time), increased fumerolic or hydrothermal emission, increased SO2 and CO2 emission (indicative of de-gassing magma), deformation (measured via GPS) of the volcano, or frequent volcanic tremors. Couple this with a muon scanner that can tell you if magma is in fact in the chamber... well you have yourself a volcano eruption predicting machine, at least giving you a few days notice before an eruption (speculation, yes, but I imagine quite clearly that this would be one hell of a comprehensive system!).

But do NOT count out human innovation. Using muons to map internal geological structures is not a new idea., and the technologies required to make such a method to predict eruptions might already be available, but simply have not been tied together into the proper medley of technologies so that they are useful to us. If I had to take a wild swing as to when these technologies might be available and in use, I would guess probably 10-20 years from now. It is simply only a matter of time, and innovators are only limited by their imaginations and the materials available. I don't see that being a particular challenge this day and age when open-source collaboration is on an upswing. Just look at the private space travel industry!

In any case, it is my onion that not only can we, as humans, eventually predict eruptions, but the technology is already well underway to do so. So, to the author of Wired, I do appreciate scientific skepticism, but you might want to catch up on the stuff that is already being invented. You might say that scientists are keeping secrets, but I had no trouble in finding information BY SCIENTISTS to the contrary.

What do you think? Post your links to neat geological tech below and let the debate begin! You can see the links to the muon scanners (by the scientists who invented and tested them on volcanoes) below!

http://indico.cern.ch/getFile.py/access?contribId=19&resId=1&materialId=paper&confId=51276 (link to CERN labs explanation of MUONS)

http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/yaoki/2010JGR.pdf link to scientific paper by the tech's developers.

Cascades Volcanoes, Sleeping Giants

The entire West Coast of the United States, and Canada are strewn with large stratovolcanoes. From Mt. Shasta, to Mt. St Helens, to Rainier, to Glacier Peak, the West Coast is literally pockmarked with large, explosive, and potentially dangerous volcanoes. The Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), and the newly minted California Volcano Observatory (CalVO), are tasked with monitoring these massive volcanoes that are near heavily populated centers. With so many volcanoes on the West Coast, it is a wonder that not a lot of people out here actually realize how volcanically active California, Oregon, and Washington actually are.

The last eruption of a Cascades range volcano was in May 1980 (actually I need to correct this... Mt St Helens erupted from 2006-2009 with a lava dome building event!), when Mt St Helens ended a very long period of dormancy explosively and with little warning (although with today's technology, we may have seen that eruption coming, but we did not have advanced GPS satellite data to measure deformation, nor did we have the types of seismic knowledge that we do today). Mt. St Helens was a beautiful, conical volcano, which until 1980 was a favorite hiking trail and nature preserve. The eruption, many thousands of times more powerful than a nuclear bomb, wiped out and flattened the landscape for tens of miles around the volcano. The only death was a man ironically named Harry Truman, who refused to leave his mountain home. As many as 57 people were killed in the blast, mostly hikers, and a mountain resident named Harry Truman. One persons ordeal was captured on his camcorder as he attempted to escape the ash cloud, but unfortunately he was unsuccessful. Several others survived lahars and thick ashfall, and lived to tell their stories. This eruption could have been much worse if it occurred in nearly any other Cascades range volcano.... and this is the only eruption that is still fresh in the minds of the US.

There were however eruptions of other Cascades volcanoes within the last century. The eruption of Mt Lassen in 1914-1917 was extremely large, and one of the first eruptions to actually be photographed as it exploded. Huge boulders many tons in mass were flung miles from the summit, pyroclastic flows raged down the sides of the mountain, and ash fall was recorded very far from the volcano. There are very few people alive today who would have witnessed this eruption, and the eruption has all but faded from memory.

Before the Lassen eruption, there was the reported eruption of Shasta in the late 18th century. "Shasta's only historical eruption was observed from the ship of the explorer La Perouse off the California coast in 1786." according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Project. While this seems like a long time ago, consider how long St. Helens was dormant for. Shasta, like most other volcanoes in the Cascades still experiences periods of heightened seismicity, and weak geothermal action. Shasta will erupt again, but like St. Helens, it is in a lightly populated area (a town called Weed, CA).

But then there are the more dangerous Cascades volcanoes. Like Vesuvius in Italy, Mt Rainier is considered by many scientists to be the most dangerous volcano in the world in regards to the population surrounding it. Not far (40 miles SW) from Tacoma and Seattle Washington, Mt Rainier looms over the landscape and dominates the skyline. This 4,392 meter tall giant of a stratovolcano last erupted some time in the 19th century, according to tree-ring data and analyzed tephra layers.

The threat from this volcano is three-fold. An eruption would melt the glaciers capping the volcano, causing mudslides and lahars. Even if the volcano doesn't erupt, it can collapse due to hydrothermal action 'rotting' the rocks it is made of. This is currently the biggest worry of geologists, and they have a reason to. Flank collapses have reached all the way to the Puget Sound, and that didn't even require an eruption from the massive hulk. Currently, the volcano steams away at the summit, creating a series of steam carved ice caves, a reminder that it is still very much an active volcano. The worst case scenario for this volcano would be a collapse resulting in an eruption, mudflows, pyroclastic flows, and lahars. Much like St Helens, but far larger.

All of these volcanoes have erupted before, and all of them will erupt again. And thankfully, we will probably known at least a few days before that will happen, but there is no predicting structural collapse of these volcanoes, as there are little to no precursor signals that we could be aware of except for GPS measurements, and they would have to be rather frequent. In any case, if you, like me, live on the US West Coast, it's always good to have a disaster plan. We have frequent earthquakes, and will have volcanic eruptions in the future. It's a matter of when, not if. We even have our own supervolcano, the Long Valley caldera, which has erupted after Yellowstone and still shows deformation, seismicity, and hydrothermal action. Its a good thing any new eruption at Long Valley would likely be a small dome building event, or I might just get worried.

The best course of action, especially if you worry about silly things like 2012, etc, is to have a volcano preparedness kit. Breathing masks, batteries, flashlights, LOTS of bottled water, non-perishable food... if you worry about these things, you should have a supply ready to be used in an emergency. The same goes for earthquakes, wildfires, or any other natural disaster our coast has and will experience again. 

Video from El Hierro's Underwater Volcano Released

Video of the actual volcano underwater off the coast of La Restinga, El Hierro in the Canary Islands (Spain) shows a degassing and slowly erupting cone. The video, published by IGN (Institutio Geografico National) shows in very clear water, the surface of the vent degassing. It is the first video published by scientists that clearly shows what is actually happening under water, giving us our fist actual observation of the cone itself.

The eruption at El Hierro was declared over by the government, much to the chagrin of scientists and volcanologists who insist the eruption is not over, merely slow. The government is apparently quite eager to declare the eruption over as tourism has actually suffered, not prospered, during this eruption. Sensationalist news media, and negative press caused the usually booming tourist industry to slow to a crawl, and residents and businesses were forced out of the small fishing town of La Restinga, putting a large dent in their economy.

However this is a dangerous presumption for the government to make. First of all, the eruption is NOT over, and second, giving residents and tourists a false sense of security in regards to the volcano is ill advised. It is still quite possible that other vents can open up, or that activity at the main vent can resume. It is impossible to say, but in most scientists views, the eruption at El Hierro would be over as soon as there are little to no earthquakes and NO harmonic tremor.

The interesting thing about the volcano and the government is the clear attempt to cover up what is actually going on. The webcams have been shut off completely. The webcams were shut off due to "cost concerns" as the provider claimed that they were too expensive. I highly doubt that they are. This apparent "blackout" of information coincides completely with the Spanish government's declaration that El Hierro is now a "green" zone, ie: safe for tourists, boats etc. There is still a very small exclusion zone for commercial boats around the vent, but the port and town are now open.

And even as government officials claim the eruption is at an end, there was a 2.7 magnitude earthquake directly under the erupting vent, and more earthquakes in the El Golfo region (the El Golfo basin is an area that has been highly seismically active, with some scientists wondering whether or not there is another open vent at the bottom, out of reach of our instruments). So with an active and hot cone, earthquakes every day in and around the erupting vent, and now visual confirmation of the vent itself with an underwater camera... one has to ask themselves, who is the Spanish government kidding? 

Alaska's Cleveland Volcano Back To Alert Level "Orange"

AVO has again raised the alert level at Cleveland volcano due to the resurgence of yet another lava dome at the summit. Two have been emplaced slowly, and each time the dome has either exploded or collapsed in two very minor eruptions. The slowly erupting volcano has been going back and forth between "Yellow" and "Orange" aviation codes during the recent months. Typically after the dome collapses, AVO has lowered the alert level thinking that the volcano may have stopped erupting, but this has turned out not to be the case.

Cleveland volcano has been erupting for around a year, with an initial lava dome emplaced at the summit crater that reached a diameter of approximately 160M. This dome was destroyed when the volcano had an ash producing eruption. A smaller dome was extruded into the crater, and also subsequently destroyed. The current situation is another lava dome is now being built, however the current dome has not been measured.

This slowly erupting volcano can escalate the eruptive activity with little to no warning, and Cleveland was actually responsible for the only death ever from an Aleutian volcano. The "Orange" alert does not reflect the slow eruption, but its potential to enter into explosive phases at a moment's notice. The Aleutian arc is a very popular sky route for many airlines going to and from Asia to North America, and given an incident with Redoubt volcano in which a plane nearly crashed due to ash being sucked into its engines, AVO takes no chances with the safety of travelers.

For now the volcano continues to slowly seethe and push out the viscous lava into the crater, repeatedly making and destroying its lava dome. It is possible that new magma is pushing up older, cooler magma to the surface, and this is just the "cork in the bottle" so-to-speak. As AVO states, it is certainly possible for this volcano to change eruption characteristics at any moment. Good thing that this volcano is in an area of the world that is nearly uninhabited!

Earthquake Swarm and Possible Dike Intrusion at Krísuvík Volcano in Iceland

There is not a whole lot going on in the world in respect to new eruptions or volcanoes at this moment, however Iceland is always fascinating to watch. Today there was a swarm of quakes just SW of the Kleifarvatn lake, just south of the epicenter of Krísuvík volcano. The quakes were shallow, weak, and numerous, but the area is highly active, much like most of Iceland. Most of the quakes registered below a 1.0 magnitude, but were clearly seen on the many Icelandic seismic sensors. The are is home to many thermal vents, as well as hot springs, fumeroles, and fissures.

The last known eruption of Krísuvík volcano was in the 14th century (the 1500's). A few eruptions have taken place at this location after Iceland was settled, but nothing in recent times. It is probable that this swarm will not lead to an eruption any time soon, but Iceland sits on a spreading fault, so it is not a matter of if, but when this volcano will erupt again.

There are several volcanoes in Iceland that are expected to erupt at least within the next 10 years. Those are Katla, Askja, Grimsvötn (or Grimsfjall, Grimsnes), Hekla, and the Reykjanes Ridge, all of which show heightened seismic and thermal activity. However for most of these volcanoes, it is normal to display some kind of activity, and no eruption for any of these, save probably Katla and Hekla, are certain.

Icelands last major eruptions were from Eyjafjallajökull, and Grimsvötn. The Grimsvötn eruption, while spectacular to watch, was nowhere near as big a deal as the Eyjafjallajökull eruption which caused widespread economic damage due to flights to and from Europe being grounded for weeks because of the ash cloud it produced. The ash from Grimsvötn is much more coarse and larger grained than the very fine and powdery ash produced by the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, and thus fell to the earth quickly and did not get picked up by the jet stream.

The activity at Krísuvík can be attributed to a few causes. For one, Iceland is one of the worlds largest users of hydrothermal/geothermal energy, and regularly injects water into hot rocks to produce steam. This does sometimes cause swarms of quakes to occur, and it is rather hard to tell whether or not this could be related, but as the quakes happened on an active spreading fault, I suspect this is not the case, rather a small magma dike intrusion probably occurred.

Around the world most dormant volcanoes are sleeping or slowly rumbling away. Mt Etna did display some nice activity this weekend, but other than Etna's fireworks show, most active volcanoes showed relatively little activity during the month. Not good for us volcano bloggers out there to tell a story, but hey, the Earth does what it wants on its own time with little concern for my Google money! Hopefully this post is at least a good diversion! I'll post more as it occurs!

Another 6.3 Quake Hits Mexico

A magnitude 6.3 quake struck the Oaxaca region of Mexico today, near the area where the large mag 7.6 quake hit a couple weeks ago. This is the largest aftershock thus far from the 7.6 tremblor. Housing and property were damaged by the large quake, however injuries and fatalities were thankfully very low due to citizens being well prepared for evacuating. Mexico, like the West Coast of the US, is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, an arc of subduction faults and volcanoes spanning the rim of the Pacific plate.

The quake was centered in the Western corner of the state of Oaxaca, approximately 2 miles away from the epicenter of the 7.6 quake. The quake was felt as far away as Mexico City due to the composition of the earths crust (a mix of clay sediments, and volcanic ash), which is a good conductor for seismic waves.

No volcanic unrest has been associated with these quakes. Several rumors were circulated that Popocatepetl might have been 'disturbed' by the shaking, however the volcano continues to act normally, only occasionally puffing our steam, or small amounts of ash.

Mexico is very familiar with earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Central Mexico is home to thousands of cinder cones, vents, stratovolcanoes, and calderas. Popocatepetl is Mexico's most active volcano, having erupted fairly regularly in historical time.

The current seismicity is associated with the collision and subduction of the Pacific Plate and the North American plate, and is not volcanically related. Some quakes can and do disturb volcanoes, and can destabilize magma chambers, but most volcanoes in Mexico are long dormant, or too far from the quake epicenter to be affected in any serious way, so there is probably no risk of heightened volcanic activity as a result of the recent quakes.

*****UPDATE*****
The quake was downgraded to a 6.0 later by USGS. No reports of damage or injuries have been made apparent.

New Info On Bolivian Volcano Uturuncu Indicates Uplift Is New

The recently "awakened" supervolcano in Bolivia, Uturuncu, may have actually awakened just recently, according to new data. The data suggests that the volcano began re-inflating quite recently. In fact, a report on VolcanoDiscovery.com suggests that the uplift began as recently as 1992, according to sediment uplift data. This suggests that not only is Uturuncu awakening, it suggests that Uturuncu is quickly building up its massive magma reservoir and may actually lead to activity in the area... and at the worst case, a caldera forming super eruption.

Uturuncu has never erupted in historical time. Indeed data suggests it has not erupted for over 200,000 or more years, making it an enigma. The current uplift of approximately 1-2cm per year over a 70km wide radius from the central volcano, suggests mathematically a magma intrusion of approximately 1 cubic meter per second, from a source approximately 14km in depth, filling a much shallower 3km deep magma chamber. To keep things in perspective, this is the same approximate distance of the Yellowstone caldera's magma chamber depth.

The difference between Yellowstone and Uturuncu however is vast. Yellowstone displays far more fumerolic and hydrothermal activity, however as far as we know, it has always done so in our history. Uturuncu has been quiet during the same period of time, until now. On average, 2.6 earthquakes per day are recorded at the volcano, sometimes spiking to more than 14 quakes per day. Harmonic tremor is present at Uturuncu, unlike Yellowstone, which geologists say has not had much magma intrusion or inflation. Indeed, scientists theorize that a lot of the uplift and subsidence at the Yellowstone caldera is related to gas and water, not magma.

Uturuncu getting a fresh injection of magma after such a long time is something new to scientists. Most volcanoes that are dormant for this long tend not to erupt again... or so we thought. Many volcanoes with long periods of dormancy-- some we thought were extinct-- have recently 'activated' and erupted with incredible force. Nabro volcano in Africa, and Chaiten volcano in Chile, were both thought to be long dormant, or completely extinct. All it took for these volcanoes to "wake up" were some rather large quakes and a quick injection of fresh magma. Chaiten and Nabro volcano are still active.

This new data on Uturuncu is both fascinating and terrifying, although scientists caution not to worry or start planning your doomsday bunker just yet-- it can take thousands of years for Uturuncu's magma chamber to inflate to the point where it will actually erupt... PLENTY of time to plan for a disaster (and who knows, in 1,000+ years we might have technology that can "deflate" a volcano and prevent it from erupting catastrophically... purely in the sci-fi realm at the moment, but I don't put it past us to innovate our way out of a super eruption in the future).

There is always, however, the possibility that the volcano has simply tapped into a vast source, and will erupt without warning. It has happened to much smaller volcanoes, and rest assured it can happen to any volcano. There is truthfully no point in worrying about a super eruption from Uturuncu. Surface activity is nominal, with the same fumeroles and hot springs active that have been for thousands of years. No new surface activity like steaming, fissure cracks, etc have been observed at the site, so for now at least, there is nothing to worry about in the near-future.

Uturuncu is surrounded by the worlds largest collection of supervolcanic calderas. Millions of years ago, Bolivia was host to some of the worlds most violent eruptions, and Uturuncu is just ONE large volcano out of hundreds in the area. The area is poorly studied, so it would not surprise me in the least to learn there are several volcanoes out there that are inflating without our knowledge. Pure speculation though, and I do try to stay away from that. In any case, this data will be used to refine our understanding of supervolcanoes, and give scientists and opportunity to track the inflation of what was thought to be a long-dead mountain.

AVO Lowers Alert For Cleveland Volcano To "Yellow"

The slowly erupting stratovolcano in Alaska, Mt. Cleveland, has been lowered to level "Yellow/Advisory" with AVO geologists stating "No further explosions have been detected at Cleveland since March 13, and we have no evidence that lava-dome growth has renewed since then. Therefore, we are lowering the Aviation Color Code to YELLOW and the Volcano Alert Level to ADVISORY."

Mt. Cleveland had been experiencing slow lava dome growth for the better part of a year, with a couple of collapses and small explosions, but nothing in the range of some of its past activities. Cleveland volcano has in the past erupted quite violently creating large plumes of ash some 30,000 feet high, but this episode was slow, effusive, and really not a huge deal.

The island itself is uninhabited, and far from any populated areas. It is however the only volcano of the Aleutian arc with a fatality (one) on its record, from an eruption in 1944. Mostly the volcano has annoyingly deposited ash  on nearby towns during large eruptions, or caused air traffic diversions.

The other volcano showing signs of unrest in Alaska is Mt. Iliamna which has undergone a series of magmatic quakes, thought to be related to dike intrusion. A recent expedition by AVO scientists to this volcano has revealed an increase in gas emissions (SO2, and CO2), and vigorous steaming/fumerole action. AVOstates that this does not mean an eruption is imminent and they saw no signs of rockfall, or avalanches in the area. However, they did seem to note some slight deformation in a glacier, but they were unable to attribute that solely to the volcano.

Government Officials Declare El Hierro Eruption Over... When It's Not

Apparently under public pressure to declare the resort island of El Hierro "open for business", Government officials in Spain/Canary Islands have declared the alert level at El Hierro be lowered to "green" (the level before the eruption). This occurs as INVOLCAN conducted an R.O.V. mission to the crater, and discovered that yes, in fact, the volcano is still very much erupting, although the characteristics of the eruption has changed. While there is no vigorous "jacuzzi" on the surface, below the water a lot is still going on.

The eruption is very much like the submarine eruptions produced by Loihi on the southern end of the Big Island of Hawaii. Pillow lavas are being extruded onto the sea floor, and continue to do so.

So was this declaration of "green" a politically motivated, and non scientific maneuver? You betcha. I don't think there would be one actual scientist studying this volcano that would say the eruption has ended. If that were true... well obviously lava would not be flowing, now would it?

So the eruption actually continues at this time. The type of eruption this has ended up as is not a Surtseyan eruption, as many people thought might occur, rather the eruption type is called an "Serretyan" type eruption. Earthquake-report.com has a lot more info on this, but I thought I'd share their great image they published on what characterizes a Serretyan eruption.

Descriptive image of a Serretyan eruption, from Earthquake-report.com

El Hierro is a difficult volcano to analyze and monitor as it has turned out to be very unique in its eruption characteristics. Many thought a pyroclastic cone would develop on the island, or that an eruption would ensue in the El Golfo bay (probably because it is shaped like a caldera, even though its just a massive collapse scarp), which actually still has the potential to happen, but it ended up being a very benign submarine eruption that never reached the water's surface. While not an exciting eruption to watch, the concept of this volcano is pretty intriguing, and of great scientific interest, as this volcano is displaying some mechanics that we don't often get to witness.

In any case, if anything interesting happens at El Hierro, I'll be sure to post about it! I simply wanted to share this with the readers to notify that the eruption is still going on, despite what governments may say!

Magnitude 7.6 Quake Strikes Mexico [UPDATED]

A Magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred in Southern Mexico today, with the epicenter between Guerrero and Oaxaca. The quake was felt as far North as mexico City, which is approximately 200 miles from the epicenter. Shaking was extremely violent at the epicenter, and for a radius of around 100 miles.

No current reports of damages or injuries, however news is slow to come out of the region, and there will likely be many follow up reports on this.

*****UPDATE*****

As expected, reports have started to flood in from Mexico (keep in mind, I wrote this post the second the quake popped up on my Google Earth USGS plugin), and the damage is striking.

Many hundreds if not thousands of homes have been damaged or destroyed. 11 people have so far been confirmed dead, which is actually very good considering the magnitude of the quake and the area that it struck. This number will likely rise however, but at this time it does not appear that as many people were hurt or killed. In 1985, a very large and shallow 8.0 quake hit Mexico City, killing up to 10,000 of its citizens.

The quakes in central and Southern Mexico are especially damaging due to the composition of the ground... volcanic ash and clay deposits. These materials conduct seismic waves with ease, and when an earthquake hits, can liquify the ground, sinking buildings. This liquifaction effect was very apparent in video from Japan when the 9.0 quake and tsunami (oh yes, throw int hat nuclear disaster at Fukushima too...) struck. One video showed black water spouting out of sidewalks and lawns.

The 7.6 (some news organizations are incorrectly reporting the magnitude as 7.9) quake has spawned many aftershocks. At this point in time, 17 aftershocks, all ranging from 4.1-5.3, have struck near the area of the initial quake. As a Southern Californian, used to many quakes, I can say from firsthand experience that a 5.0 quake is still no joke, especially if you're near the epicenter. I was present in San Diego when a magnitude 7.2 quake hit Mexico near Mexicali/El Centro (I happened to be camping not 20 miles from the epicenter that day, and had planned to explore the mud caves out there... thankfully my friends and I couldn't find them, or we might have been the ONLY casualties of that quake on the US side of the border!!), and saw the ground ripple. Where I was when the quake actually hit was near the coast, and USGS says that would have felt like a mild 6.0 quake.... nothing mild about it.

Thankfully, Southern California has great construction codes that allow our buildings to nearly shrug off anything up to an 8.0... anything larger would be pushing it. The same is not true in Mexico, which is a very poor country. Most buildings are built without strict adherence to earthquake code, are very old, or are built illegally, making earthquakes that much more dangerous in the region.

Aftershocks and other quakes will happen in the area for a while. The 7.2 quake of Easter 2010 has left the entire Southern California/Northern Baja California fault system in a state of perpetual flux, generating tens of small quakes every day. In another blog post I talk about the recent spate of activity at the Salton Sea, which looks like magma dike intrusion, which began to occur after the quake. Not many people know it, but the entire area from the Salton Sea to Cerro Prieto is a spreading fault, and will erupt in the future *(the newly minted California Volcano Observatory lists the area as a high threat for future eruptions).

Anyhow, welcome to the Pacific Ring of Fire. Subduction quakes are simply a fact of life out here!

AVO Sends Team To Mt. Iliamna To Check Gas/Temps [UPDATED]

AVO scientists have sent a team of geologists on a fly-by mission to Mt. Iliamna, Alaska's restive volcano that has been showing signs of activity since January. The apparently successful mission to go to the volcano to check gas levels and temperatures on the summit fumeroles has produced results, and AVO is expected to release their findings today on their website (http://avo.alaska.edu).

Mt. Iliamna has been experiencing heightened levels of seismicity for some time, but recently in January there were some rather intense quake swarms, at very shallow depths (some swarms were less than 1km underneath the surface), with some quakes registering up to magnitude 3.7. AVO has subsequently raised the alert level to "Yellow"(watch), and has actually directed one of their webcams to watch the volcano visually (below picture).

Live webcam snapshot from AVO.alaska.edu

Iliamna does not have a record of historical eruptions, however AVO and GVP state that it's last eruption was approximately 140-200 years ago. Active fumeroles exist at the summit, and the last activity in 1996 was similar to the current level of activity.The 1996 quake swarms were also thought to be magma dike intrusion, much like today's swarms. AVO scientists stress that this does NOT mean there will be an eruption, however I would wager that with several dike intrusions, the magma will try to find some way to the surface. In my opinion, a minor eruption is very likely at Iliamna in the coming months or years.

It is anyone's guess as to what characteristics an eruption at Iliamna would take on. It is a stratovolcano, and part of a subduction zone, so like most Aleutian and Alaskan volcanoes, it would likely be an explosive event followed by dome growth and thick lava effusion. For now, AVO is monitoring the volcano, and so am I!

*****UPDATE 3/20/2012*****

AVO has completed their initial survey of Iliamna volcano and released the following news:

"Seismicity at Iliamna Volcano remains above background. Data from Saturday's gas and observation flight indicate that the volcano is emitting elevated levels of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide, consistent with a magmatic source. It is not know, however, if this is a newly intruded magma, or whether new pathways for gas from preexisting magma have caused the increased gas flux. The amount of gas being emitted is broadly similar to levels seen in 1996-1997, when a likely magmatic intrusion but no eruption occurred at the volcano.

Observers on the flight saw vigorous and plentiful fumaroles (gas vents) at the volcano's summit, consistent with the elevated gas emissions. No obvious signs of recent rockfall, large areas of newly exposed bedrock, or unusual disturbance of the glacial ice were observed. Some deformation of the ice at the headwall of the Red Glacier on the east side of the summit was seen, but it is not clear this is related to the current volcanic unrest; avalanching of the glacier is common on this very steep area and was last seen in 2008."

So it does appear at this time that activity has at least increased visually, indicating rising temperatures from deep below. Iliamna is officially a volcano to keep an eye on!

Katla Volcano Has Another Quake Swarm

Katla volcano in Iceland is having another quake swarm today, during what some say is supposed to be a quiet time geologically for Iceland, during the harsh Winter months. Seismicity is elevated today at the Mýrdalsjökull glacier, with some quakes even occurring at the neighboring Eyjafjallajökull volcano. Eleven tremblors struck within the Katla caldera within the last 24 hours. As I write this, the swarm is ongoing. Most of the quakes except for two were below 2.0 in magnitude, with the largest being a 2.5. Many smaller >1.0 quakes occurred.

This again is probable dike intrusion into Katla, which has seen elevated seismicity and geothermal activity since its very small eruptive event last year (which produced a glacier outburst flood, and caused minor damage to bridges and roads). 

Image from Iceland Met Office showing today's quakes at Katla/Mýrdalsjökull 

Katla has been seismically active for months, with most scientists expecting an eruption soon.When is impossible to say, however this will likely be larger than last time due to the amount of magma intruded into the system. Swarms have occurred at the volcano at least a few times in any given month since June of 2011, but so far has not resulted in a large eruptive event like its neighbor Eyjafjallajökull, who's eruption in April 2010 produced a large ash cloud, carried by the jet stream, and stranded millions of travelers in Europe as airliners were grounded due to ash concerns.

Europeans fear a repeat of this event should Katla erupt, however it is anyone's guess whether an ash cloud from Katla would even follow the same pattern. It is entirely possible that the ash cloud going go East, and give the United States East Coast a taste of the headaches that Europeans suffered. Or the ash could simply blow South, into the ocean, harming no one. In any case, Katla rumbles on, gearing up for its inevitable show. 

Italy's Mt Etna Has 4th Eruption of 2012

Mt.Etna has been stealing the show lately with spectacular eruptions (called paroxysms) that have been very frequent this year. Yesterday Etna erupted producing lava fountains, and light ashfall. This is the 4th paroxysmal event of 2012, and part of Etna's regular pattern of eruptions.

Etna is (arguably) the world's most active volcano, aside from possibly Kilauea in Hawaii (although Kilauea has only been erupting continuously since 1983, Etna has been active for far longer), and is host to frequent lava flows and explosive activity. Etna has seen more activity lately, and the webcam is rather fun to watch, especially if you like to watch great lava shows.

While the eruptions do not pose a threat to any towns or population centers, Etna is a large and sprawling shield volcano, and has erupted far outside the summit previously, producing pyroclastic cinder cones, fissures, and more. The potential for an eruption on its lower flanks is an ever present threat, however this has not happened in a very long time.