New Concerns About Campi Flegrei in Italy

There are less than 20 so-called "supervolcanoes" on Earth, and of those some are well known, and some are not. From Yellowstone to Taupo, Toba to Uturuncu, and more, we know that these volcanoes erupt with extreme volatility, yet very rarely... with the exception of some. The most recent magmatic eruptions from any known supervolcanic caldera has occurred in the Aira caldera in Japan, where the resurgent Sakura-Jima stratovolcano has been erupting in the center of the caldera for many decades. The most recent actual supervolcanic eruption (VEI 8) occurred over 75,000 years ago at Lake Toba volcano in Indonesia, which, according to widespread genetic analysis, may have reduced the modern human population to under 5,000 individuals worldwide (although the maximum population at that period has never actually been quantified).

Indeed, supervolcanoes are a terrifying thought, however these events are so rare, and nearly unpredictable (according to current science) that one should not even sweat one drop worrying that this may occur...

But this is not the case in Italy, as the Campi Flegrei volcano is again in the media spotlight (as occasionally Yellowstone or Uturuncu is when news outlets want some ratings).

As I have reported previously on this blog, Campi Flegrei is the site of a study that seeks to better  understand the dynamics and goings-on in the magma chamber beneath Pozzouli, Italy. The area boasts a population of over 3 million people, and any eruption from the restive caldera would be of grave concern to the government, and to the population. As recently as 2010, industrial drilling has taken place at the volcano, however once scientists proposed a drilling operation that would reach the magma chamber, unfounded concerns by non-experts forced the operation to be on hold until recently.

Now, a team of geologists will drill some 3.5+ km into the magma chamber in an effort to monitor and detail the dynamics of one of the world's most active super volcanoes. The last eruption from the Campi Flegrei field produced the Monte Nuovo cinder cone in 1538, which was documented thoroughly by local witnesses of the time. Earlier volcanism produced several solfatara fields, and modern-day activity has consisted mostly of fumerolic/phreatic activity, and gradual uplift of the caldera area, which in the 1980's prompted evacuations of some areas due to the rate at which the land was rising.

Current uplift has left some modern and ancient nautical ports/docks inaccessible due to he gradual and constant uplift of the land. In one port, the land has risen so much that the cement boat launch platform that used to serve the area pre-1970 is now so elevated that you might consider using it as a diving platform rather than a place to launch your boat.

Campi Flegrei is monitored by the Vesuvius volcano observatory in Italy (Vesuvius, another powerful and notorious volcano is located a mere 15km East of the Campi Flegrei Caldera), and lately, no warnings have been issued in regards to seismic swarms, magma intrusion, or increased fumerolic or solfataric activity in recent memory.

There is not enough data that currently exists at this time to say what the next phase for this sleeping giant would be, but most sources that know what they're talking about would tell you this: A super volcanic eruption is a rare event, which requires rare circumstances. The conditions at Campi Flegrei, and every other super volcano in the world suggest that while we are now aware of the existence of such volcanoes, we should sleep well at night knowing that none of them are currently capable of producing the conditions for such a natural disaster. Not even Yellowstone.

Supervolcanoes And Why You Shouldn't Worry So Much

It's a pretty quiet week in volcano world (at least until I can get my paws onto the latest GVP report), so I thought I might dabble in the realm of supervolcanoes today, since they are such a hot topic, and very misunderstood.

There has been plenty of hype in the news media surrounding so-called supervolcanoes like Yellowstone, Toba, Rotorua, Uturuncu, and the like. Media outlets looking for a sensational and fascinating story seem to fixate on the apocalyptic scenarios of a Yellowstone eruption, or an eruption so devastating that it wipes out humanity as we know it. While there are supervolcanoes in our midst, and some like Yellowstone that are still seething and breathing, a true supervolcanic eruption has never occurred in the span of recent human history, and probably will not for a very long time.

Yellowstone had its last truly catastrophic eruption some 600,000+ years ago. Journalists and some researchers point out that Yellowstone has a major caldera type eruption around every 600,000 years, and some say the volcano is overdue. But this again assumes that volcanoes actually have a schedule, and conform to our time lines. This of course is absurd. Volcanoes erupt simply when the conditions are met for an eruption, and Yellowstone is a far ways away from anything major. At the very worst, we'd probably see a small phreatic (water explosion) eruption, or a minor cone building event, but even this is far fetched at this point in time.

The ONLY supervolcanic eruption in human history occurred approximately 75,000 years ago in Indonesia. A volcano named Toba erupted, punching a gigantic caldera into the earth's surface, creating a mini ice age, and reducing the population of humans worldwide to around 5,000 individuals. This has been proven from many angles like ice-core samples that show an immense amount of sulphur dioxide and tephra, as well as DNS analysis of humans pointing to a genetic bottleneck around that time.

The next largest eruptions in recorded human history were the eruptions of Tambora in the 19th century, the eruption of Krakatoa (now Anak Krakatau, 'child of Krakatoa), and the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens, and Pinatubo. These eruptions were all on a scale of VEI 6 to VEI 4. Far from the supervolcanic force of a VEI 7 eruption which is required to be classified as a supervolcanic event.

There are no supervolcanoes currently displaying the characteristics of an imminent eruption. The requirements for such an eruption are extremely rare, and complex. First, the magma chamber has to be massive, fully charged, and pressurized, and then it needs an injection of fresh magma from the mantle. Surface observations would include heightened fumerolic and geyser activity, ground uplift and swift deformation, accompanied by multiple explosive events, culminating in the emptying of the magma chamber, and subsequent collapse of a massive caldera. There are NO volcanoes that currently display any of these characteristics... not even Yellowstone or Uturuncu.

Events like these are extremely rare, and require all of the above conditions to occur. Given that the earth has already suffered so many volcanic eruptions, and several supervolcanic events, one might wonder if the Earth still has the magma required to make one happen. It does, and supervolcanic events will happen again... but the likelihood of one happening in your lifetime is so infinitesimally small, they're hardly worth the calculation. In fact, you have a much better chance of seeing a meteor strike the earth, or a supernova in space than you are to see a supervolcano erupt.

Supervolcanoes are terrifying, fascinating, and worrisome for governments to prepare for... but one has to ask... given that we've never had a super eruption in our living history, why would we lose sleep over something that is so unlikely to occur? Most of the worry and hype can be blamed on the "2012'ers", Hollywood, or just plain old Yellow Journalism. Some can be blamed on conspiracy theories, or doomsayers. But truly, it is human nature to be on guard about any threat to our existence, and while the threat exists, we will always pay attention. I however will never lose any sleep worrying about Yellowstone.