My Beef With a Wired.com Article [Opinion piece]

Recently I happened upon an interesting article (or rant) on Wired.com's Eruptions blog, where the author, Erik Clemetti had challenged readers to describe or otherwise link the technology that would be required to successfully predict an imminent volcanic eruption. You can find my comments in the comments section of the article, but I was immediately like one of those kids who KNOWS the answer to the question in any school class raising his hand "Pick me! Pick me!".

Recently I started looking into what it would take to predict a volcanic eruption. I had seen several National Geographic specials about volcanic eruption prediction, and the pains to which some scientists have gone to make this sort of method or technology a reality. Erik seems to believe that A) No progress has been made and B) that it never will be... Allow me to retort!

First of all, there are some VERY interesting technologies out there to which he might be unaware. One such technology involves using muons (or more specifically, muon detectors). In a recent project undertaken by Japanese scientists, it was shown that placing muon detectors in a 360 degree pattern around a volcano, you can construct a complete 3D image of the volcanoes magma chamber. This technology works by calculating the number of muons flowing through a point in this 3D space to reach its destination. Muons thankfully are formed by the cosmos, so you need no machine, no projector, no generator to produce muons. They fly from all vectors and angles, and continue on uninterrupted until they collide with something (usually something VERY dense like lead, rock, etc). The absence of resistance from the muons travels (ie, the more muons that hit a certain detector at a certain angle) indicates a weak resistance force. This in turn indicates a magma chamber, or void space. This data is then used to create an actual 3D image of the magma chamber... and let me say, I would be skeptical too if I didn't see the tech work on TV. It is now being used to map the chambers of both Mt Shasta in California, and Mt Vesuvius in Sicily.

There are also other very good tell-tale signs that an eruption could be about to occur. Harmonic tremor and long-period events (one in the same really) indicate rising magma underneath the surface. While a recent article about Santorini on MSNBC pointed out that scientists say "90% of the time, magma intrusion does not lead to an eruption", persistent harmonic tremor has preceeded a great many powerful eruptions, most notably (and why harmonic tremor is now considered to be a precursor to an eruption) with a Columbian volcano (Galeras) that erupted, killing many including the volcanologists at the summit), even after the volcanologists had warned that an eruption was imminent. This eruption WAS predicted, and the prediction was ignored.

However, all volcanoes are different. What worked at Galeras does not say, work at Mt Shasta, nor could the same exact method be applied to a great number of volcanoes int he world. Plainly speaking, volcanic eruptions could only be predicted by using specific methods for specific volcanoes, until the day that we have such technology that can predict magma currents in the mantle to the lithosphere with as much accuracy that we do with weather.

Currently, we can tell a volcano is getting ready to erupt by many factors, such as increased harmonic tremor (undetectable without instrumentation most of the time), increased fumerolic or hydrothermal emission, increased SO2 and CO2 emission (indicative of de-gassing magma), deformation (measured via GPS) of the volcano, or frequent volcanic tremors. Couple this with a muon scanner that can tell you if magma is in fact in the chamber... well you have yourself a volcano eruption predicting machine, at least giving you a few days notice before an eruption (speculation, yes, but I imagine quite clearly that this would be one hell of a comprehensive system!).

But do NOT count out human innovation. Using muons to map internal geological structures is not a new idea., and the technologies required to make such a method to predict eruptions might already be available, but simply have not been tied together into the proper medley of technologies so that they are useful to us. If I had to take a wild swing as to when these technologies might be available and in use, I would guess probably 10-20 years from now. It is simply only a matter of time, and innovators are only limited by their imaginations and the materials available. I don't see that being a particular challenge this day and age when open-source collaboration is on an upswing. Just look at the private space travel industry!

In any case, it is my onion that not only can we, as humans, eventually predict eruptions, but the technology is already well underway to do so. So, to the author of Wired, I do appreciate scientific skepticism, but you might want to catch up on the stuff that is already being invented. You might say that scientists are keeping secrets, but I had no trouble in finding information BY SCIENTISTS to the contrary.

What do you think? Post your links to neat geological tech below and let the debate begin! You can see the links to the muon scanners (by the scientists who invented and tested them on volcanoes) below!

http://indico.cern.ch/getFile.py/access?contribId=19&resId=1&materialId=paper&confId=51276 (link to CERN labs explanation of MUONS)

http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/yaoki/2010JGR.pdf link to scientific paper by the tech's developers.

El Hierro Activity Still Apparent, Government Pretending It's Not There

The Spanish government at El Hierro is quickly trying to sweep the eruption under the rug. Even while Earthquake-report.com's Joke Volta continues to photograph clear evidence of underwater activity, underwater video showing degassing and small amounts of erupting lava, and even while seismographs continually record weak volcanic tremor, the government has insisted that the eruption is over. And to prove just how serious they are, they are lowing ALL alert levels, including near the eruption zone itself to "green".

This has a lot of people, especially the folks over there at Earthquake-report.com, scratching their heads as to why a government could actually be so careless. This whole eruption at El Hierro has been incredibly mismanaged by their tourism industry, and the government. Indeed the government has even stood in the way of actual scientific data on the eruption even being made public! Their stance has been one of fear, and thus far has crippled the economy of the small town of La Restinga, rather than helped it. From over cautious evacuations to cover ups, to the downright irresponsible LIFTING of the alert level, it seems the only people who know the truth were those that watched the web cams and hovered over the seismic data. And now the webcam is gone.

This has been a very odd volcano to report on, not because of its submarine eruption near a bustling tourist town, but because of the politicization of a volcanic eruption. It is a story that belongs in a bad volcano movie (Sorry Tommy Lee Jones!), not the real world.

Volcanic eruptions, when benign, and non-threatening as El Hierro is, typically should be a boon for communities and countries. Hawaii volcanoes national park in the US regularly draws tens to hundreds of thousands of visitors a year, all who want to see molten lava hit the ocean in giant explosions and witness the birth of new land. Iceland had an incredible surge in tourism when Eyjafjallajökull erupted in 2010. Italy's Etna volcano is famous worldwide for its frequent and spectacular paroxysms. And there are multiple volcanoes in South America such as Arenal, Poas, Tungurahua, and more that are regular draws for tourists and scientists alike...

So why did the El Hierro situation go the exact opposite way? First, the government tried to sweep it under the rug. Then it admitted something was going on, and it overreacted and evacuated large portions of the island, and also TOLD tourists not to show up. After that, they regularly butted heads with scientists, telling them what they could and could not make public about a geological event, sewing distrust. And if you are a regular reader of Earthquake-report.com and Joke Volta's adventures there, you'd know that she is now under pressure to "shut up" by the locals who are starting to blame her and Earthquake-report.com for the lack of tourists (or scaring them away) because of her efforts to document every day of the eruption (which is what GOOD volcanologists DO!).

This is kind of spooky. Why on earth would the Spanish government want to cover up an eruption that is CLEARLY ongoing? Its quite strange and disturbing to think that a government can be so incompetent in regards to a natural geological event. It could have gone so differently for the island of El Hierro and the town of la Restinga. They could have had thousands of sight seers, and busy cafe's, but the government instead scared everyone, and tried to un-do their mistake. Now it's simply a mess, and nobody is very happy about it. 

Shallow Quake Swarm at Joshua Tree East Of Palm Springs

There is absolutely nothing, and no information on this on the web, so I thought I might bring it into the light for scrutiny. There is a continuing quake swarm occurring in Joshua Tree National Park, about 35 miles East of Palm Springs, CA that is beginning to look quite intriguing. The range of depth is from 8km to less than 1km, and about 2 quakes are occurring every hour. The strongest quakes were two mag 3.5 tremblors that were lightly felt in Palm Springs and surrounding towns.

The area is definitely part of the Rio Grande rift, a series of spreading faults that resemble "stretch marks" on the Western USA's topography. This rift, much like the African Rift Valley (although nowhere near as active volcanically) is home to a great many volcanic features. This particular area is parallel to the San Andreas fault line, the most active fault line in the USA.

The swarm is concentrated below an ancient volcanic mountain, and has been very consistent in its locations. All quakes are occurring within a mile of each other. This does look a bit like a deep magma dike intrusion, but it is definitely still way to soon to tell what is going on. Dike intrusions into the crust happen all the time, and most times they never result in any surface volcanic activity.

A Google Earth Snapshot with USGS real-time quake overlay showing the location and number of quakes in the swarm. The largest quake occurred yesterday and was a mag. 3.5, with a matching 3.5 quake occurring today (4/4/2012).

While this probably is a magma intrusion into the crust, there are other possibilities such as these being a precursor (foreshock) to a larger quake in the future, or a very small tectonic slippage. In any case, this swarm is intriguing not just because of its location, but because of the number of quakes occurring within the area. As this is occurring along the San Andreas fault however, it is very hard to tell whether or not this is purely tectonic, or if there is an intrusion taking place.

As this is, to my knowledge, the only article about these quakes so far, I will withhold further speculation about what is going on here until (or if) the USGS comments on the quakes, or if they become newsworthy. It is simply impossible to tell from available data whether or not these events will be significant, or insignificant, but as always I will keep an eye on these interesting occurrences, and post updates if anything changes. For now, keep your eyes peeled East of Palm Springs (and I would avoid going spelunking out there any time soon!).

*****UPDATE 4/9/12*****

The quake swarm is continuing with now more than 50 quakes striking the region. The swarm is very much beginning to look like a dike intrusion, at least on the Google Earth USGS plugin. It is quite similar to the precursors at El Hierro, deep quakes, numerous, and rising in depth. Still, nobody is reporting on this, so I am at the mercy of my own assumptions, which I will keep quiet for now, but this is definitely an area to keep an eye on for a while, at least until USGS takes notice. If anything further develops, I will update this post again.

Earthquake Swarm and Possible Dike Intrusion at Krísuvík Volcano in Iceland

There is not a whole lot going on in the world in respect to new eruptions or volcanoes at this moment, however Iceland is always fascinating to watch. Today there was a swarm of quakes just SW of the Kleifarvatn lake, just south of the epicenter of Krísuvík volcano. The quakes were shallow, weak, and numerous, but the area is highly active, much like most of Iceland. Most of the quakes registered below a 1.0 magnitude, but were clearly seen on the many Icelandic seismic sensors. The are is home to many thermal vents, as well as hot springs, fumeroles, and fissures.

The last known eruption of Krísuvík volcano was in the 14th century (the 1500's). A few eruptions have taken place at this location after Iceland was settled, but nothing in recent times. It is probable that this swarm will not lead to an eruption any time soon, but Iceland sits on a spreading fault, so it is not a matter of if, but when this volcano will erupt again.

There are several volcanoes in Iceland that are expected to erupt at least within the next 10 years. Those are Katla, Askja, Grimsvötn (or Grimsfjall, Grimsnes), Hekla, and the Reykjanes Ridge, all of which show heightened seismic and thermal activity. However for most of these volcanoes, it is normal to display some kind of activity, and no eruption for any of these, save probably Katla and Hekla, are certain.

Icelands last major eruptions were from Eyjafjallajökull, and Grimsvötn. The Grimsvötn eruption, while spectacular to watch, was nowhere near as big a deal as the Eyjafjallajökull eruption which caused widespread economic damage due to flights to and from Europe being grounded for weeks because of the ash cloud it produced. The ash from Grimsvötn is much more coarse and larger grained than the very fine and powdery ash produced by the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, and thus fell to the earth quickly and did not get picked up by the jet stream.

The activity at Krísuvík can be attributed to a few causes. For one, Iceland is one of the worlds largest users of hydrothermal/geothermal energy, and regularly injects water into hot rocks to produce steam. This does sometimes cause swarms of quakes to occur, and it is rather hard to tell whether or not this could be related, but as the quakes happened on an active spreading fault, I suspect this is not the case, rather a small magma dike intrusion probably occurred.

Around the world most dormant volcanoes are sleeping or slowly rumbling away. Mt Etna did display some nice activity this weekend, but other than Etna's fireworks show, most active volcanoes showed relatively little activity during the month. Not good for us volcano bloggers out there to tell a story, but hey, the Earth does what it wants on its own time with little concern for my Google money! Hopefully this post is at least a good diversion! I'll post more as it occurs!

Government Officials Declare El Hierro Eruption Over... When It's Not

Apparently under public pressure to declare the resort island of El Hierro "open for business", Government officials in Spain/Canary Islands have declared the alert level at El Hierro be lowered to "green" (the level before the eruption). This occurs as INVOLCAN conducted an R.O.V. mission to the crater, and discovered that yes, in fact, the volcano is still very much erupting, although the characteristics of the eruption has changed. While there is no vigorous "jacuzzi" on the surface, below the water a lot is still going on.

The eruption is very much like the submarine eruptions produced by Loihi on the southern end of the Big Island of Hawaii. Pillow lavas are being extruded onto the sea floor, and continue to do so.

So was this declaration of "green" a politically motivated, and non scientific maneuver? You betcha. I don't think there would be one actual scientist studying this volcano that would say the eruption has ended. If that were true... well obviously lava would not be flowing, now would it?

So the eruption actually continues at this time. The type of eruption this has ended up as is not a Surtseyan eruption, as many people thought might occur, rather the eruption type is called an "Serretyan" type eruption. Earthquake-report.com has a lot more info on this, but I thought I'd share their great image they published on what characterizes a Serretyan eruption.

Descriptive image of a Serretyan eruption, from Earthquake-report.com

El Hierro is a difficult volcano to analyze and monitor as it has turned out to be very unique in its eruption characteristics. Many thought a pyroclastic cone would develop on the island, or that an eruption would ensue in the El Golfo bay (probably because it is shaped like a caldera, even though its just a massive collapse scarp), which actually still has the potential to happen, but it ended up being a very benign submarine eruption that never reached the water's surface. While not an exciting eruption to watch, the concept of this volcano is pretty intriguing, and of great scientific interest, as this volcano is displaying some mechanics that we don't often get to witness.

In any case, if anything interesting happens at El Hierro, I'll be sure to post about it! I simply wanted to share this with the readers to notify that the eruption is still going on, despite what governments may say!

Katla Volcano Has Another Quake Swarm

Katla volcano in Iceland is having another quake swarm today, during what some say is supposed to be a quiet time geologically for Iceland, during the harsh Winter months. Seismicity is elevated today at the Mýrdalsjökull glacier, with some quakes even occurring at the neighboring Eyjafjallajökull volcano. Eleven tremblors struck within the Katla caldera within the last 24 hours. As I write this, the swarm is ongoing. Most of the quakes except for two were below 2.0 in magnitude, with the largest being a 2.5. Many smaller >1.0 quakes occurred.

This again is probable dike intrusion into Katla, which has seen elevated seismicity and geothermal activity since its very small eruptive event last year (which produced a glacier outburst flood, and caused minor damage to bridges and roads). 

Image from Iceland Met Office showing today's quakes at Katla/Mýrdalsjökull 

Katla has been seismically active for months, with most scientists expecting an eruption soon.When is impossible to say, however this will likely be larger than last time due to the amount of magma intruded into the system. Swarms have occurred at the volcano at least a few times in any given month since June of 2011, but so far has not resulted in a large eruptive event like its neighbor Eyjafjallajökull, who's eruption in April 2010 produced a large ash cloud, carried by the jet stream, and stranded millions of travelers in Europe as airliners were grounded due to ash concerns.

Europeans fear a repeat of this event should Katla erupt, however it is anyone's guess whether an ash cloud from Katla would even follow the same pattern. It is entirely possible that the ash cloud going go East, and give the United States East Coast a taste of the headaches that Europeans suffered. Or the ash could simply blow South, into the ocean, harming no one. In any case, Katla rumbles on, gearing up for its inevitable show. 

Italy's Mt Etna Has 4th Eruption of 2012

Mt.Etna has been stealing the show lately with spectacular eruptions (called paroxysms) that have been very frequent this year. Yesterday Etna erupted producing lava fountains, and light ashfall. This is the 4th paroxysmal event of 2012, and part of Etna's regular pattern of eruptions.

Etna is (arguably) the world's most active volcano, aside from possibly Kilauea in Hawaii (although Kilauea has only been erupting continuously since 1983, Etna has been active for far longer), and is host to frequent lava flows and explosive activity. Etna has seen more activity lately, and the webcam is rather fun to watch, especially if you like to watch great lava shows.

While the eruptions do not pose a threat to any towns or population centers, Etna is a large and sprawling shield volcano, and has erupted far outside the summit previously, producing pyroclastic cinder cones, fissures, and more. The potential for an eruption on its lower flanks is an ever present threat, however this has not happened in a very long time.

Alaska's Cleveland Volcano Has An Explosion, Iliamna Rumbles Away

Alaska's volcanic activity is picking up. Mount Cleveland was reported by multiple news sources and AVO as having had an explosive event on Wednesday, although the cloud is reported to be far less in height than the 20,000 meters it would take to institute a no-fly zone. AVO stated "A small, short duration explosion was detected from Cleveland Volcano on distant seismic stations and infrasound arrays. The time of the explosion was approximately 4:05 UTC March 8 (7:05 PM March 7, AKST.) Weather cloud conditions prevented the detection of an eruption cloud in satellite images or visual observation of the summit. This explosion was similar to recent small events that occurred in December 2011 and produced small ash clouds that dissipated quickly and did not affect air traffic. At this time, no further activity has been detected."

And as Cleveland volcano slowly plods along with what seems to be akin to a slow motion, low explosive eruption, a volcano I have mentioned in a previous post, Iliamna, is showing more signs of dike intrusion. Heightened seismicity including very shallow quakes under the restive volcano, which has no recorded history of eruptions during human habitation in Alaska, is causing AVO to suspect what I have said in the past, that Iliamna is waking up, and is preparing to erupt. The last radiocarbon dates for any eruption at Illiamna are thought to be 140-300 years ago. A record number of seismic events (for Illiamna) is occurring, and AVO scientists are planning a fly by to check for any visual signs of a change in activity. They will be checking for steaming, fumeroles, melting ice, etc.

Today alone, Illiamna has had over 40 quakes, some of them not-so-small, with the largest being a 3.2 magnitude beneath the summit, at a depth of only 2.0km, closely followed by a 3.1 quake at a shallower depth of 1.2km. It is my humble opinion that Illiamna is indeed ready to erupt, and this will occur either this month, or this year. We will wait and see, but so far I have been right about this volcano, and as far as I know, I was the first to report on its unrest aside from AVO noticing the tremor waves (I could not find anything or any other news that was posted before this article). Maybe I'm on to something!

Current seismic tremor at Iliamna Volcano, from AVO website.

In any case, the amount of quakes today alone make me almost think an eruption is already occurring. If it isn't it certainly might very soon, and we have very little idea as to how this volcano will erupt, given that it has never been witnessed in eruption (the only info we have is forensic). The picture below shows the current (last 24 hours) swarm of quakes, while the quakes in Yellow have occurred within the week. 

Image from Google Earth with USGS real-time quake overlay.

Iliamna is a stratovolcano, common for the US's Pacific Ring Of Fire volcanoes, and is most likely capable, like most of its neighbors, of large explosive events. An eruption at Iliamna will most likely cause some disruption to air travel, as well as ashfall on nearby towns, however the immediate area surrounding the volcano is not populated by any permanent towns. This volcano will likely not be able to directly kill anyone, thankfully. Time will tell on this, but it is looking more and more like an eruption at Iliamna is imminent.

As of now, AVO has NOT raised the alert level for Iliamna, however if I were them I would at least consider at this point raising the alert level to "Yellow" (watch). It would be a tragedy if this volcano were to erupt as an airplane is flying over, much like the incident in the 1980's when Mount Redoubt suddenly blew and nearly caused a fatal crash.

The Smithsonian GVP says this about Iliamna:

"Iliamna is a prominent, 3053-m-high glacier-covered stratovolcano in Lake Clark National Park on the western side of Cook Inlet, about 225 km SW of Anchorage. Its flat-topped summit is flanked on the south, along a 5-km-long ridge, by the prominent North and South Twin Peaks, satellitic lava dome complexes. The Johnson Glacier dome complex lies on the NE flank. Steep headwalls on the southern and eastern flanks expose an inaccessible cross-section of the volcano. Major glaciers radiate from the summit, and valleys below the summit contain debris-avalanche and lahar deposits. Only a few major Holocene explosive eruptions have occurred from the deeply dissected volcano, which lacks a distinct crater. Most of the reports of historical eruptions may represent plumes from vigorous fumaroles east and SE of the summit, which are often mistaken for eruption columns (Miller et al., 1998). Eruptions producing pyroclastic flows have been dated at as recent as about 300 and 140 years ago (into the historical period), and elevated seismicity accompanying dike emplacement beneath the volcano was recorded in 1996."

I will probably post an entirely separate article should Iliamna decide to erupt.

*****UPDATE 3/11/2012*****

AVO has raised the alert level at Iliamna to Yellow. They posted the following statement:

"Over the past three months the earthquake rate at Iliamna Volcano has steadily increased and now exceeds normal background levels. Although it is not certain that this sustained increase in earthquake activity represents the movement of magma at depth, it is a significant change and AVO has increased the Alert Level to Advisory and the Aviation Color Code to Yellow. The current activity does not mean an eruption is imminent or certain. A similarly energetic episode of seismic unrest from September 1996 to February 1997 was likely related to the intrusion of new magma at depth, but an eruption did not occur."

It Is Official: El Hierro Eruption Has Ended

INVOLCAN has declared the eruption of El Hierro to be over, and the alert status of the island has been lowered from Red to Yellow. The village of La Restinga can finally open its doors to tourists again, however maritime activity is still restricted due to probable degassing, and swimming in the water is still off limits pending a chemical analysis of the water to determine its safety. Sea life has already begun to repopulate the area, a good sign for the fisherman of the village.

The eruption at El Hierro was preceded by a lengthy period of volcanic earthquakes, which were used to size up the magma chamber. The island was on Yellow alert for a long time, before a "jacuzzi" was spotted in the ocean, and harmonic tremor increased. The eruption of the underwater cone "Bob" started as an underwater fissure eruption, eventually resulting in a cone building event. Several collapses of the main vent stalled the eruption, which stopped and started several times. On occasion, floating "Lava Balloons", or gaseous bubbles encased in molten rock, would float to the surface and emit steam, and sometimes flames once the bubbles burst and allowed oxygen to interact with the heat. This however was as exciting as the eruption got.

For about a month now, the eruption has all but ceased entirely. Harmonic tremor has been at low to background levels, and there has been very little if any surface activity since February. This is what led the scientists to declare the eruption over, although their maintaining of alert level Yellow does indeed reflect what many of us know, that activity can resume at any time, and caution is still in order. Some volcanoes have a small cone building event as a precursor to a larger eruption, something that is certainly not out of the question.

Current uplift sensors show the island to be stable, which could mean that the magma reservoir has not deflated, and merely extruded the lava to form "Bob" because it was the easiest path to the surface. Quakes are still ongoing at El Hierro in an area not near "Bob", and it is still worth keeping an eye on the island. El Hierro and the Canaries have been compared to the Hawaiian islands in regards to the type of eruptions it produces. The theory goes that El Hierro, like Hawaii, is a hotspot type volcano. These are highly unpredictable as we have no way of imaging or monitoring the mantle plumes that are though to be responsible for hotspot volcanoes.

It is my guess that activity will pause now for probably months, and either slow subsidence will take place, or activity will resume in another location. It is now a game of wait and see. In any case, I doubt that the residents of El Hierro will ever forget now that they are living on an active volcano, and will be ever mindful of the power that lies beneath their feet.

Supervolcanoes And Why You Shouldn't Worry So Much

It's a pretty quiet week in volcano world (at least until I can get my paws onto the latest GVP report), so I thought I might dabble in the realm of supervolcanoes today, since they are such a hot topic, and very misunderstood.

There has been plenty of hype in the news media surrounding so-called supervolcanoes like Yellowstone, Toba, Rotorua, Uturuncu, and the like. Media outlets looking for a sensational and fascinating story seem to fixate on the apocalyptic scenarios of a Yellowstone eruption, or an eruption so devastating that it wipes out humanity as we know it. While there are supervolcanoes in our midst, and some like Yellowstone that are still seething and breathing, a true supervolcanic eruption has never occurred in the span of recent human history, and probably will not for a very long time.

Yellowstone had its last truly catastrophic eruption some 600,000+ years ago. Journalists and some researchers point out that Yellowstone has a major caldera type eruption around every 600,000 years, and some say the volcano is overdue. But this again assumes that volcanoes actually have a schedule, and conform to our time lines. This of course is absurd. Volcanoes erupt simply when the conditions are met for an eruption, and Yellowstone is a far ways away from anything major. At the very worst, we'd probably see a small phreatic (water explosion) eruption, or a minor cone building event, but even this is far fetched at this point in time.

The ONLY supervolcanic eruption in human history occurred approximately 75,000 years ago in Indonesia. A volcano named Toba erupted, punching a gigantic caldera into the earth's surface, creating a mini ice age, and reducing the population of humans worldwide to around 5,000 individuals. This has been proven from many angles like ice-core samples that show an immense amount of sulphur dioxide and tephra, as well as DNS analysis of humans pointing to a genetic bottleneck around that time.

The next largest eruptions in recorded human history were the eruptions of Tambora in the 19th century, the eruption of Krakatoa (now Anak Krakatau, 'child of Krakatoa), and the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens, and Pinatubo. These eruptions were all on a scale of VEI 6 to VEI 4. Far from the supervolcanic force of a VEI 7 eruption which is required to be classified as a supervolcanic event.

There are no supervolcanoes currently displaying the characteristics of an imminent eruption. The requirements for such an eruption are extremely rare, and complex. First, the magma chamber has to be massive, fully charged, and pressurized, and then it needs an injection of fresh magma from the mantle. Surface observations would include heightened fumerolic and geyser activity, ground uplift and swift deformation, accompanied by multiple explosive events, culminating in the emptying of the magma chamber, and subsequent collapse of a massive caldera. There are NO volcanoes that currently display any of these characteristics... not even Yellowstone or Uturuncu.

Events like these are extremely rare, and require all of the above conditions to occur. Given that the earth has already suffered so many volcanic eruptions, and several supervolcanic events, one might wonder if the Earth still has the magma required to make one happen. It does, and supervolcanic events will happen again... but the likelihood of one happening in your lifetime is so infinitesimally small, they're hardly worth the calculation. In fact, you have a much better chance of seeing a meteor strike the earth, or a supernova in space than you are to see a supervolcano erupt.

Supervolcanoes are terrifying, fascinating, and worrisome for governments to prepare for... but one has to ask... given that we've never had a super eruption in our living history, why would we lose sleep over something that is so unlikely to occur? Most of the worry and hype can be blamed on the "2012'ers", Hollywood, or just plain old Yellow Journalism. Some can be blamed on conspiracy theories, or doomsayers. But truly, it is human nature to be on guard about any threat to our existence, and while the threat exists, we will always pay attention. I however will never lose any sleep worrying about Yellowstone. 

El Hierro Eruption Officially Over?

Reports from earthquake-report.com are saying that INVOLCAN will officially declare the eruption at El Hierro to be over today, possibly lowering the overall alert level to "green" and allowing the village of La Restinga to slowly return to normalcy. Tremor for the past few weeks has been at a minimum, with little to no changes, save the very slight increases and decreases in amplitude, and occasional small earthquakes. For now it seems, the eruption of "Bob", the submarine volcano that ALMOST made it to the surface of the water, is over.

This however does not mean that activity on the island as a whole is finished. Indeed, deformation is still occurring, and earthquakes are getting shallower at other locations around the island. So, while the village of La Restinga may be able to breathe a sigh of relief that "Bob" has gone to sleep, the rest of the island as a whole is still on pins and needles. The last eruption of El Hierro occurred in the 18th century, and lasted two years.

While many volcano enthusiasts and scientists alike were watching El Hierro with anticipation of being able to see a well-documented Surtseyan type eruption (which ended up not happening), the island chain of Jebel Zubair in Yemen pulled a fast one on us and had an island-producing eruption behind everyone's back. Quite frustrating if you were hoping to witness the actual birth of an island from start to finish. It's really too bad that the Zubair group of volcanoes isn't really monitored that well, or we might have gotten our wish.

All things said and done, the ending of the El Hierro eruption, and the lowering of the alert level for La Restinga will likely come as a relief to islanders, as they have been hurt economically by the closure of the fishing port, and the hotels/cafe's which were evacuated during the heightened alert. While the local and Spanish governments might have used the eruption as a tourist draw, like they do on Hawaii or Iceland, the local media hyped the story and scared lots of people and tourists from the island. Only bloggers, and locals were actually reporting on this eruption objectively (or close to objectively), which has given me much more respect for bloggers and freelance journalism.

In any case, my best wishes to the residents of El Hierro, and hopes that if activity does resume, or start in another area, it will be as mellow as the eruption of "Bob", and merely be an interesting, not violent, occurrence. Time will tell if the island has gone back to sleep, but as far as the local government and the scientists at INVOLCAN are concerned, it's time to consider the eruption over... but a word of caution, I'm pretty sure volcanoes don't have to follow government law or statements... we're living on their schedule, not the other way around.

Even though the eruption has "officially" ceased, there will be some remnant activity at the volcano, such as degassing, and occasional structural adjustment quakes.

El Hierro Eruption Continues At Low Level

While the harmonic tremor readings are nearly flat, and visuals on the surface of the ocean have been few and fr between, the El Hierro submarine eruption is continuing at a low rate. For the last few days, the "jacuzzi" and stain area have made faint appearances, and water temperatures over the vent are still high enough to generate a steamy haze over the vent area. Today the jacuzzi area is a bit stronger, even though harmonic tremor is about the same as it has been for the last week or so.

The earthquakes to the West of the eruption zone have been continuing, varying from up to 20 quakes per day, down to a low of about 7. They are getting shallower in this area, indicating the possibility of more magma movement possibly to a different area. This could explain why "Bob" (the unofficial name for the submarine volcano) has shown minimal activity, because magma may be finding another route through the crust. It could also be that "Bob" is simply re-pressurizing, and the renewed jacuzzi and heat activity could indicate that the cone itself is heating up again and getting ready for another round of eruptive activity. Only time will tell. This could simply be underwater cooling and degassing, but this would not account for the activity today (the ocean is a GREAT heat sink, especially for cone building events such as this).

There have been regular scientific expeditions to the eruption area, with several scientific vessels taking bathymetry readings, and sonar scans of the ocean floor. From what I've read on Earthquake-report.com (they are fortunate enough to have a local reporting for them and taking daily photos), an ROV missions is planned in the near future to take direct video of the vent area, however due to currents and sometimes bad weather, they haven't had much luck getting the remotely operated vehicle deployed yet (they are insanely expensive, so they will always err on the side of caution when it comes to this equipment).

So until we have direct observations from the sea floor, it is hard to tell what the state of the eruptive cone is in at this time. All we can infer from tremor, and surface observations is that this eruption is continuing at a low level as it has been for the past week or so. This could change at any time.

In a previous post about El Hierro, I pointed out the similarities between El Hierro and the Hawaii island chain. While Earthquake-report.com picked up on this idea as well, they erroneously compared this eruption to that of Kilauea, instead of its newer and less active neighbor, Loihi. The surface eruption on Hawaii's Kilauea volcano is unimpeded by ocean water, and is able to create stable channels for lava to flow onto the surface. Loihi (first detected in eruption in 1996) is a submarine volcano SW of the Kilauea summit, and has periods of activity followed by long periods of dormancy, and has a lot of the same characteristics of the El Hierro submarine eruption.

While it is my belief that El Hierro, like Hawaii, is a "hot spot" type volcanic system, the dynamics are different from Hawaii. The chemical makeup of the lava is different, the location is certainly different, and instead of an underwater shield volcano (like Loihi), this seems to be a mere cone building event not separate from the main volcanic system at El Hierro.

Hot spot volcanic systems like the Hawaiian and the Canary islands can have long period of eruption like Kilauea, or short periods of strong activity... really the range of activity these spots are capable of is huge. El Hierro might be entering a phase of long term activity given the quakes, their locations, and the duration of what people thought was probably going to be a very small event. This is a volcano still worth watching, and is of great scientific interest.

*****UPDATE 2/27/2012*****

Activity at El Hierro is unchanged. Low and almost nonexistent harmonic tremor, coupled with light degassing and small jacuzzi visible. Probably the actual eruption of "Bob" the underwater cinder cone is over. However GPS data indicates uplift of the island of El Hierro itself, and quakes are clustering at the northern end of the island. El Hierro appears to be inflating, and it is not unreasonable to think that another cone building event, possibly on the island itself, may occur in the future. When is impossible to say.

Costa Rica's Rincón de la Vieja Volcano Erupts

Rincón de la Vieja, Costa Rica's largest volcanic complex, is experiencing an eruptive phase after 14 years of quiescence. Tremor and explosive activity has been reported by Wired.com Eruptions blog, and local Costa Rican news sources. The explosions were not damaging to surrounding areas, and are reported to have been contained inside the most active (middle) crater of Rincón de la Vieja. Volcanologists say that this is not the result of new magma being injected into the crater, rather this is a phreatic eruption.

Phreatic eruptions occur when water seeps into cracks or fissures, and comes into contact with cooling magma or superheated rock, which in turn causes the water to flash into steam, creating enough pressure for an explosive event. These types of eruptions are considered to be one of the least dangerous types, however they are still quite dangerous as they can occur with little to no warning. These types of eruptions generally do not generate any seismic signals until they actually occur, and are not able to be predicted. They are typically small eruptions, however larger phreatic eruptions, more specifically, ones that can create a 'maar' have occurred in many other volcanic systems, such as the Soda Lakes maars in Nevada, or the Ubehebe craters.

It is probable that this will be some of the only activity for now from Rincón de la Vieja for a while, unless new magma is injected into the chamber. It is anyone's guess at the moment as to if this has occurred or will occur. However the Costa Rican government would be wise to excersize caution, as a 1966 eruption caused a very large, VEI 3 sized eruption, which produced many deadly pyroclastic flows. An earlier eruption in (around) 1820 BC produced a much larger VEI 4 size eruption, which produced the Río Blanco tephra layer, was the largest eruption of the volcano that we know of.

Rincón de la Vieja is the site of geothermal drilling and exploitation.

Rincón de la Vieja does have the potential for extremely explosive events, and it is looking like the volcano is awaking from its slumber... at least for a little while. It is entirely possible that after these phreatic explosions, that will be all and the volcano will go back to sleep. I for one wouldn't plan any trips to the summit any time soon, and would opt to admire the volcano from a good distance!

Alaska'a Kanaga Volcano Raised To Alert Level Yellow

Alaska's Kanaga Volcano in the Aleutian Islands is showing signs of activity according to seismicity and observations made by AVO. The latest report states:

"Possible explosive activity and a likely ash cloud indicate new unrest at Kanaga Volcano. AVO is increasing the Aviation Color Code to YELLOW and the Volcano Alert Level to ADVISORY.Volcanic tremor was detected from 15:23-15:27 UTC (6:23 AM AKST) followed by numerous small events for about an hour at Kanaga Volcano. A possible weak ash cloud was also detected in AVHRR satellite data from 15:35 UTC about 39 km (24 mi) NE of the volcano.This new unrest indicates a possibility for sudden explosions of ash to occur at any time, and ash clouds exceeding 20,000 feet above sea level may develop. If a large, explosive, ash-producing event occurs, the local seismic network, satellite ash alarms, infrasound, and volcanic lightning will alert AVO to the new activity."

Kanaga's last eruptive phase was in 1994-1995, and produced large ash plumes reaching up to 20,000 meters. 

Golden Trout Creek Volcanic Field Experiences More Earthquakes

The quake swarm at Golden Trout Creek in California has added several new tremors today in what is looking more and more like magma dike intrusion. The quake area (as shown in a previous post) is less than a mile away from two separate hot springs; Joran Hot Springs, less than 1 mile from the swarm area, and a thermal area to the West of the quake region (or what appears to be one on satellite). The quakes started out at depths of around 8KM, and in the course of one day have progressed to a magnitude 2.3 at a depth of 3.8KM.

There were four magnitude 2.0 or greater quakes today in the area, with many smaller tremblors dotting the area. Aside from the obvious trend in quakes getting shallower, the area being very near thermal hot springs begs the question, "Is this Pleistocene/early Holocene volcanic center having a magma intrusion"? My guess at this point is yes, however the newly minted CalVO (Formerly LVO) has yet to publish any analysis. This area does have active fault lines, and it could be that this is only tectonic, however the area is known for at least 4 monogenetic cinder cones, and a random cone building event may not be out of the question.

I do try not to speculate, as many other bloggers have done, in the name of good journalism and science, but the trend is starting to look very convincing.

Image from Google Earth with USGS overlay detailing the location, magnitude, and depth of the most recent quake. 

If this does turn out to be an eruption (keep in mind, if this is magma, it still has around a mile or so to go before it breaches the surface), it would be the first in California in nearly a century. The last eruption of any kind occurred at the Lassen Volcanic Complex in Northern California in 1915, when one of the Sierra Nevada range volcanoes entered into a two year long eruptive cycle. To my knowledge, that is the only eruption in California you can actually find (black and white) pictures for.

This could easily turn out to be nothing, and the area is so remote, people would not be in harm's way whatsoever. If anything, this might turn out to be a nice tourist attraction for thrill seekers, much like the tourist who flew to Iceland during the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull (I'm too lazy right now for the umlauts, sorry Nords!). This would be pretty great for California, as my home state depends heavily on tourism for a lot of its revenue. However, wishful thinking does not an eruption make, and only time will tell.

 *****UPDATE 2/15/2012*****

A 2.3 magnitude quake occurred today at a depth of only 3.8KM (*2.36 mi) indicating a strong, and rising source of seismicity. If more quakes occur in the same location at even shallower depths, I would start thinking that this is definitely volcanic related activity.

*****UPDATE 2/24/2012*****

Another round of tremors hit the same region today, this time at a LOWER depth of 8.0 km (down from 5.0). Three quakes ranging from mag 1.7-2.1 occurred within a 24 hour period in the same location as the previous quakes.

Eruption at El Hierro Slows, But Quakes Increase

The harmonic tremor at El Hierro has been extremely low for the last couple of days, but the volcano is still weakly erupting magma, and mostly degassing. However there were a record of over 20 earthquakes yesterday and into today, with the quakes becoming shallower and shallower, possibly a precursor for another vent in the SW part of the island off the coast. The magma chamber is not done yet with El Hierro.

The harmonic tremor is at a low point due to probable vent collapse, and re pressurization of the chamber (think of it like putting your thumb, or a cork, in a running garden hose, but on a much more massive scale). The pressure will build up and the eruption of the current vent will either resume, or the magma will find another route to the surface. It is anyone's guess where and when, but it seems likely that the new vent if it does pop up will be to the West of the current cone (Bob).

The current tremor and analysis from El Hierro volcanologists confirm this, and now the island waits to see the next phase of this historic event. More than likely, this will result in another submarine cone building event. If another cone/fissure does erupt in another location, you can be pretty sure that the first cone (Bob) will stop erupting as magma diverts to an easier route. This may be already taking place, with harmonic tremor so low, and quakes so numerous and shallow, it could very well be that "Bob" is dead.

This would actually end up being a good thing for the village of La Restinga as their main port and tourist spots have remained closed out of an abundance of caution, and all sea faring routes have been cut off. This has hit the economy hard. An eruption to the West of "Bob" would be of minimal consequence to business, especially if "Bob" is confirmed to be done erupting and the government re-opens boat traffic to La Restinga (not to mention the hotels and cafe's).

El Hierro Tremor Increases, Activity Resumes

2/09/2012

After a two day break from anything major at El Hierro, the volcano is gradually picking up steam again. Tremor for today shows a very slowly increasing amplitude, and webcam images show a very prominent stain with jacuzzi area once more. Some smoking stones could be seen on the water's surface.

Seismograph from IGN for today which shows slowly increasing harmonic tremor.

The activity at El Hierro is hard to predict, and even harder to forecast. At this point, the eruption is clearly a much longer term eruption than scientists could have expected, and it appears to have no real end in sight. Earthquakes and tremor are persistent, and the cone shows no signs of stopping its growth any time soon. I am awaiting the results of the latest survey of the cone to see whether or not it is getting much closer to the surface. At last glance, it was approximately 35M below the sea surface, but the cone has suffered several collapses so this is probably no longer accurate (could be higher, or lower).

There have been a couple rumors (but they are ONLY rumors) of thermal areas being detected on the terrestrial island, but this has NEVER been confirmed. A good NASA snapshot could easily kill that rumor, and one will probably come along eventually. 

*****UPDATE 2/9/2012-2/10/2012*****

The tremor is still increasing, while surface activity remains unchanged. What this means at this time is unknown, but could indicate further magma injection into the El Hierro magma chamber. This has been steadily increasing since early yesterday until now, with tremor showing no signs yet of abating or decreasing. This probably means further underwater explosive activity will occur within the next day or so. The reinvigorated tremor readings from IGN can be seen below.

*****UPDATE 2/11/2012*****

The tremor at El Hierro is decreasing again, after three days of moderate and sustained tremor. A stain is still visible on the water surface, and a jacuzzi area comes and goes.

Decreasing tremor at El Hierro today.

*****UPDATE 2/13/2012*****
The harmonic tremor readings at El Hierro volcano in the Canary Islands have been erratic the last couple of days. Frequent fluctuations between medium-strong, to barely readable have been the pattern the last couple of days. This most likely indicates an unstable cone/fissure vent, and consistent magma pressure on the vent. Currently, tremor is low, but picking up, suggesting that the volcano is slowly clearing whatever obstruction may be in the vent.

Below is the current tremor readings for today.

                           

El Hierro Eruption Back to Full Force

The eruption at El Hierro has gained much strength since yesterday. There is consistent harmonic tremor, lots of lava stones floating to the surface of the water, and increased gas emissions. The eruption is now back to the same strength more or less than when it began some months ago. The eruption has had short periods of quiescence as the magma chamber re-pressurizes and explodes after multiple collapses of the underwater vent system.

Below is a live JPG of the current harmonic tremor for today.

                                            
The past few days have seen a dramatic rise in both tremor and surface activity. For the past two days, smoking lava stones could be seen on the live webcam at La Restinga, and CO2 emissions have been steadily rising once again. By all indications, this will be a long eruption with many pauses, but ultimately resulting in either the birth of a new Canary Island. Keep your eyes peeled for its first appearance soon!

El Hierro Activity Strong Today, Volcanic Tremor Vigorous

The El Hierro Volcano has picked up activity this morning and into the afternoon with strong harmonic tremor, multiple recorded underwater explosions, and lots of steaming lava rocks floating to the surface. The tremor began to pick up before dawn at El Hierro, and continued throughout the day with one of the most vigorous displays of activity yet. This volcano is far from done erupting.

Below is today's tremor graph from IGN.

The obvious increase in volcanic tremor this time did coincide with surface activity. Even though the tremor is currently a bit lower than earlier, smoking lava stones and a very strong and colorful stain on the ocean surface can easily be seen on the live webcam.

If El Hierro can sustain this eruption for a couple more months, it is highly likely it will breach the surface and enter into a Surtsetyan, or island building phase. This would be characterized by a large increase in emissions and explosive activity, eventually (probably) resulting in a more Strombolian type eruption from the cone (at least this is what I gather will happen when the cone can get free of the water, given the type of ejecta making its way to the surface). With gassy lava like this, it will probably end up being quite a show.

It is time for those of you who gaze at the volcano to remain vigilant. I for one would be overjoyed to see the birth of this new island live on camera (of course I'd rather be there, but that costs lots of money!). Keep your eyes peeled!

Possible Dike Intrusion at Katla Volcano, Iceland

Seismographs are recording a large amount of small quakes beneath the Mýrdalsjökull glacier in Katla's caldera in the past 48 hours. Over 20 small quakes have so far hit a concentrated area, which usually indicates slow dike intrusion under the volcano. Katla, next door to the now infamous Eyjafjallajökull volcano which caused massive transportation disruptions in April of 2010, is far larger and has been known to erupt with much more fury than Eyjafjallajökull.

Katla may have had a minor eruption earlier in 2011, when a glacial outburst flood (jökullhlaup) came suddenly and destroyed a small bridge with debris in a lahar-like surge. This was considered by some to be a small eruption, possibly preceding future stronger activity.

While many Icelandic volcanologists have expected Katla to blow shortly after Eyjafjallajökull, it has yet to occur. This new intrusion could be the start of more activity, but it will likely be small. It could be Katla might just have a few small eruptions rather than a large one, but it's anyone's guess at this time.

                                           

Image from Icelandic Meteorological Office website showing current quake swarm at Katla.

Katla has not had a major eruption in quite some time. Some of Katla's previous eruptions have been record setting events that produced some of the largest amounts of tephra and basaltic lava flows that Iceland has ever witnessed (except for of course the famed eruption of the Laki fissure system, credited for worldwide famine and the straw that broke the camel's back for France preceding the revolution). While Katla's future is highly uncertain, the only certain thing that can be said about it is that it is active, it will erupt again, and probably soon.

Other than this, speculation is always useless with Icelandic volcanoes. The media like BBC and DailyMail will no doubt hype this up tot he point people are hysterical... while those of us who know better will sit back and wait for the show with the knowledge that this is probably going to be a non event.