New Info On Yellowstone Suggests "Super Eruption" Was Two Smaller Eruptions

Yellowstone volcano has long thought to have had a large super eruption over 2 million years ago, but new evidence is suggesting that while 2 million years ago Yellowstone DID erupt with a VEI 7 or 8 eruption, it was not as big as once thought, and was followed 6,000 years later by a smaller eruption. The result was an ash layer that appeared to be one layer but was actually two. This suggests that Yellowstone is NOT as powerful as once thought, but is more active.

The study revealed that the Island Park Caldera is actually much more active than previously thought, and the new information might assist scientists in better predicting an eruption from Yellowstone, given that the timeline has now changed. The last magmatic eruption in the Yellowstone caldera was some 70,000 years ago, and an episode of phreatic eruptions that created a 5km wide crater (now Yellowstone Lake). 

Scientists were using a new "Rock Clock" method to determine the ages of ash and rock layers within the Huckleberry Ridge, and were surprised at the data they found. The data suggests that Yellowstone's explosive eruptions were around 12 percent weaker than previously thought, but smaller eruptions are actually more numerous. The last eruptive activity of any kind in Yellowstone occurred somewhere around 1350BC (give or take around 200 years), and was limited to hydrothermal eruptions.

Knowing when, or how, Yellowstone might erupt in the future is one of volcanology's biggest challenges, given the impact an eruption from Yellowstone might have. But the new data seems to shrink the idea that Yellowstone is capable of a world-ending eruption (one thing I highly disagree with most scientists about is that any event on earth is capable of wiping out 'all life'... life did not simply get wiped out and reappear on the planet, there are always survivors). Indeed, the new data seems to suggest that Yellowstone is not capable of "blotting out the sun worldwide", but is still a very dangerous volcano to anyone within about 100KM.

This is good news for anyone who was worried that Yellowstone could be a 'world ender', and probably bad news for anyone who wants to scare people into doomsday nonsense for the tabloids. An eruption from Yellowstone today would likely be much weaker than previous eruptions, given that as far as anyone knows, no new magma has been introduced into the Yellowstone system for a very long time. Scientists theorize that the current magma chamber consists of partially cooled magma known as 'crystal mush', and any eruption would likely result from water flashing into steam when it seeps into hot rock (a phreatic eruption). These types of eruptions are short lived, and very rarely pose a threat outside of 1km, but anything is possible.

In any case, this new info will definitely be helpful to understanding further the history and potential of the Yellowstone caldera.

My Beef With a Wired.com Article [Opinion piece]

Recently I happened upon an interesting article (or rant) on Wired.com's Eruptions blog, where the author, Erik Clemetti had challenged readers to describe or otherwise link the technology that would be required to successfully predict an imminent volcanic eruption. You can find my comments in the comments section of the article, but I was immediately like one of those kids who KNOWS the answer to the question in any school class raising his hand "Pick me! Pick me!".

Recently I started looking into what it would take to predict a volcanic eruption. I had seen several National Geographic specials about volcanic eruption prediction, and the pains to which some scientists have gone to make this sort of method or technology a reality. Erik seems to believe that A) No progress has been made and B) that it never will be... Allow me to retort!

First of all, there are some VERY interesting technologies out there to which he might be unaware. One such technology involves using muons (or more specifically, muon detectors). In a recent project undertaken by Japanese scientists, it was shown that placing muon detectors in a 360 degree pattern around a volcano, you can construct a complete 3D image of the volcanoes magma chamber. This technology works by calculating the number of muons flowing through a point in this 3D space to reach its destination. Muons thankfully are formed by the cosmos, so you need no machine, no projector, no generator to produce muons. They fly from all vectors and angles, and continue on uninterrupted until they collide with something (usually something VERY dense like lead, rock, etc). The absence of resistance from the muons travels (ie, the more muons that hit a certain detector at a certain angle) indicates a weak resistance force. This in turn indicates a magma chamber, or void space. This data is then used to create an actual 3D image of the magma chamber... and let me say, I would be skeptical too if I didn't see the tech work on TV. It is now being used to map the chambers of both Mt Shasta in California, and Mt Vesuvius in Sicily.

There are also other very good tell-tale signs that an eruption could be about to occur. Harmonic tremor and long-period events (one in the same really) indicate rising magma underneath the surface. While a recent article about Santorini on MSNBC pointed out that scientists say "90% of the time, magma intrusion does not lead to an eruption", persistent harmonic tremor has preceeded a great many powerful eruptions, most notably (and why harmonic tremor is now considered to be a precursor to an eruption) with a Columbian volcano (Galeras) that erupted, killing many including the volcanologists at the summit), even after the volcanologists had warned that an eruption was imminent. This eruption WAS predicted, and the prediction was ignored.

However, all volcanoes are different. What worked at Galeras does not say, work at Mt Shasta, nor could the same exact method be applied to a great number of volcanoes int he world. Plainly speaking, volcanic eruptions could only be predicted by using specific methods for specific volcanoes, until the day that we have such technology that can predict magma currents in the mantle to the lithosphere with as much accuracy that we do with weather.

Currently, we can tell a volcano is getting ready to erupt by many factors, such as increased harmonic tremor (undetectable without instrumentation most of the time), increased fumerolic or hydrothermal emission, increased SO2 and CO2 emission (indicative of de-gassing magma), deformation (measured via GPS) of the volcano, or frequent volcanic tremors. Couple this with a muon scanner that can tell you if magma is in fact in the chamber... well you have yourself a volcano eruption predicting machine, at least giving you a few days notice before an eruption (speculation, yes, but I imagine quite clearly that this would be one hell of a comprehensive system!).

But do NOT count out human innovation. Using muons to map internal geological structures is not a new idea., and the technologies required to make such a method to predict eruptions might already be available, but simply have not been tied together into the proper medley of technologies so that they are useful to us. If I had to take a wild swing as to when these technologies might be available and in use, I would guess probably 10-20 years from now. It is simply only a matter of time, and innovators are only limited by their imaginations and the materials available. I don't see that being a particular challenge this day and age when open-source collaboration is on an upswing. Just look at the private space travel industry!

In any case, it is my onion that not only can we, as humans, eventually predict eruptions, but the technology is already well underway to do so. So, to the author of Wired, I do appreciate scientific skepticism, but you might want to catch up on the stuff that is already being invented. You might say that scientists are keeping secrets, but I had no trouble in finding information BY SCIENTISTS to the contrary.

What do you think? Post your links to neat geological tech below and let the debate begin! You can see the links to the muon scanners (by the scientists who invented and tested them on volcanoes) below!

http://indico.cern.ch/getFile.py/access?contribId=19&resId=1&materialId=paper&confId=51276 (link to CERN labs explanation of MUONS)

http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/yaoki/2010JGR.pdf link to scientific paper by the tech's developers.

El Hierro Activity Still Apparent, Government Pretending It's Not There

The Spanish government at El Hierro is quickly trying to sweep the eruption under the rug. Even while Earthquake-report.com's Joke Volta continues to photograph clear evidence of underwater activity, underwater video showing degassing and small amounts of erupting lava, and even while seismographs continually record weak volcanic tremor, the government has insisted that the eruption is over. And to prove just how serious they are, they are lowing ALL alert levels, including near the eruption zone itself to "green".

This has a lot of people, especially the folks over there at Earthquake-report.com, scratching their heads as to why a government could actually be so careless. This whole eruption at El Hierro has been incredibly mismanaged by their tourism industry, and the government. Indeed the government has even stood in the way of actual scientific data on the eruption even being made public! Their stance has been one of fear, and thus far has crippled the economy of the small town of La Restinga, rather than helped it. From over cautious evacuations to cover ups, to the downright irresponsible LIFTING of the alert level, it seems the only people who know the truth were those that watched the web cams and hovered over the seismic data. And now the webcam is gone.

This has been a very odd volcano to report on, not because of its submarine eruption near a bustling tourist town, but because of the politicization of a volcanic eruption. It is a story that belongs in a bad volcano movie (Sorry Tommy Lee Jones!), not the real world.

Volcanic eruptions, when benign, and non-threatening as El Hierro is, typically should be a boon for communities and countries. Hawaii volcanoes national park in the US regularly draws tens to hundreds of thousands of visitors a year, all who want to see molten lava hit the ocean in giant explosions and witness the birth of new land. Iceland had an incredible surge in tourism when Eyjafjallajökull erupted in 2010. Italy's Etna volcano is famous worldwide for its frequent and spectacular paroxysms. And there are multiple volcanoes in South America such as Arenal, Poas, Tungurahua, and more that are regular draws for tourists and scientists alike...

So why did the El Hierro situation go the exact opposite way? First, the government tried to sweep it under the rug. Then it admitted something was going on, and it overreacted and evacuated large portions of the island, and also TOLD tourists not to show up. After that, they regularly butted heads with scientists, telling them what they could and could not make public about a geological event, sewing distrust. And if you are a regular reader of Earthquake-report.com and Joke Volta's adventures there, you'd know that she is now under pressure to "shut up" by the locals who are starting to blame her and Earthquake-report.com for the lack of tourists (or scaring them away) because of her efforts to document every day of the eruption (which is what GOOD volcanologists DO!).

This is kind of spooky. Why on earth would the Spanish government want to cover up an eruption that is CLEARLY ongoing? Its quite strange and disturbing to think that a government can be so incompetent in regards to a natural geological event. It could have gone so differently for the island of El Hierro and the town of la Restinga. They could have had thousands of sight seers, and busy cafe's, but the government instead scared everyone, and tried to un-do their mistake. Now it's simply a mess, and nobody is very happy about it. 

Shallow Quake Swarm at Joshua Tree East Of Palm Springs

There is absolutely nothing, and no information on this on the web, so I thought I might bring it into the light for scrutiny. There is a continuing quake swarm occurring in Joshua Tree National Park, about 35 miles East of Palm Springs, CA that is beginning to look quite intriguing. The range of depth is from 8km to less than 1km, and about 2 quakes are occurring every hour. The strongest quakes were two mag 3.5 tremblors that were lightly felt in Palm Springs and surrounding towns.

The area is definitely part of the Rio Grande rift, a series of spreading faults that resemble "stretch marks" on the Western USA's topography. This rift, much like the African Rift Valley (although nowhere near as active volcanically) is home to a great many volcanic features. This particular area is parallel to the San Andreas fault line, the most active fault line in the USA.

The swarm is concentrated below an ancient volcanic mountain, and has been very consistent in its locations. All quakes are occurring within a mile of each other. This does look a bit like a deep magma dike intrusion, but it is definitely still way to soon to tell what is going on. Dike intrusions into the crust happen all the time, and most times they never result in any surface volcanic activity.

A Google Earth Snapshot with USGS real-time quake overlay showing the location and number of quakes in the swarm. The largest quake occurred yesterday and was a mag. 3.5, with a matching 3.5 quake occurring today (4/4/2012).

While this probably is a magma intrusion into the crust, there are other possibilities such as these being a precursor (foreshock) to a larger quake in the future, or a very small tectonic slippage. In any case, this swarm is intriguing not just because of its location, but because of the number of quakes occurring within the area. As this is occurring along the San Andreas fault however, it is very hard to tell whether or not this is purely tectonic, or if there is an intrusion taking place.

As this is, to my knowledge, the only article about these quakes so far, I will withhold further speculation about what is going on here until (or if) the USGS comments on the quakes, or if they become newsworthy. It is simply impossible to tell from available data whether or not these events will be significant, or insignificant, but as always I will keep an eye on these interesting occurrences, and post updates if anything changes. For now, keep your eyes peeled East of Palm Springs (and I would avoid going spelunking out there any time soon!).

*****UPDATE 4/9/12*****

The quake swarm is continuing with now more than 50 quakes striking the region. The swarm is very much beginning to look like a dike intrusion, at least on the Google Earth USGS plugin. It is quite similar to the precursors at El Hierro, deep quakes, numerous, and rising in depth. Still, nobody is reporting on this, so I am at the mercy of my own assumptions, which I will keep quiet for now, but this is definitely an area to keep an eye on for a while, at least until USGS takes notice. If anything further develops, I will update this post again.

Alaska's Cleveland Volcano Back To Alert Level "Orange"

AVO has again raised the alert level at Cleveland volcano due to the resurgence of yet another lava dome at the summit. Two have been emplaced slowly, and each time the dome has either exploded or collapsed in two very minor eruptions. The slowly erupting volcano has been going back and forth between "Yellow" and "Orange" aviation codes during the recent months. Typically after the dome collapses, AVO has lowered the alert level thinking that the volcano may have stopped erupting, but this has turned out not to be the case.

Cleveland volcano has been erupting for around a year, with an initial lava dome emplaced at the summit crater that reached a diameter of approximately 160M. This dome was destroyed when the volcano had an ash producing eruption. A smaller dome was extruded into the crater, and also subsequently destroyed. The current situation is another lava dome is now being built, however the current dome has not been measured.

This slowly erupting volcano can escalate the eruptive activity with little to no warning, and Cleveland was actually responsible for the only death ever from an Aleutian volcano. The "Orange" alert does not reflect the slow eruption, but its potential to enter into explosive phases at a moment's notice. The Aleutian arc is a very popular sky route for many airlines going to and from Asia to North America, and given an incident with Redoubt volcano in which a plane nearly crashed due to ash being sucked into its engines, AVO takes no chances with the safety of travelers.

For now the volcano continues to slowly seethe and push out the viscous lava into the crater, repeatedly making and destroying its lava dome. It is possible that new magma is pushing up older, cooler magma to the surface, and this is just the "cork in the bottle" so-to-speak. As AVO states, it is certainly possible for this volcano to change eruption characteristics at any moment. Good thing that this volcano is in an area of the world that is nearly uninhabited!

Government Officials Declare El Hierro Eruption Over... When It's Not

Apparently under public pressure to declare the resort island of El Hierro "open for business", Government officials in Spain/Canary Islands have declared the alert level at El Hierro be lowered to "green" (the level before the eruption). This occurs as INVOLCAN conducted an R.O.V. mission to the crater, and discovered that yes, in fact, the volcano is still very much erupting, although the characteristics of the eruption has changed. While there is no vigorous "jacuzzi" on the surface, below the water a lot is still going on.

The eruption is very much like the submarine eruptions produced by Loihi on the southern end of the Big Island of Hawaii. Pillow lavas are being extruded onto the sea floor, and continue to do so.

So was this declaration of "green" a politically motivated, and non scientific maneuver? You betcha. I don't think there would be one actual scientist studying this volcano that would say the eruption has ended. If that were true... well obviously lava would not be flowing, now would it?

So the eruption actually continues at this time. The type of eruption this has ended up as is not a Surtseyan eruption, as many people thought might occur, rather the eruption type is called an "Serretyan" type eruption. Earthquake-report.com has a lot more info on this, but I thought I'd share their great image they published on what characterizes a Serretyan eruption.

Descriptive image of a Serretyan eruption, from Earthquake-report.com

El Hierro is a difficult volcano to analyze and monitor as it has turned out to be very unique in its eruption characteristics. Many thought a pyroclastic cone would develop on the island, or that an eruption would ensue in the El Golfo bay (probably because it is shaped like a caldera, even though its just a massive collapse scarp), which actually still has the potential to happen, but it ended up being a very benign submarine eruption that never reached the water's surface. While not an exciting eruption to watch, the concept of this volcano is pretty intriguing, and of great scientific interest, as this volcano is displaying some mechanics that we don't often get to witness.

In any case, if anything interesting happens at El Hierro, I'll be sure to post about it! I simply wanted to share this with the readers to notify that the eruption is still going on, despite what governments may say!

AVO Sends Team To Mt. Iliamna To Check Gas/Temps [UPDATED]

AVO scientists have sent a team of geologists on a fly-by mission to Mt. Iliamna, Alaska's restive volcano that has been showing signs of activity since January. The apparently successful mission to go to the volcano to check gas levels and temperatures on the summit fumeroles has produced results, and AVO is expected to release their findings today on their website (http://avo.alaska.edu).

Mt. Iliamna has been experiencing heightened levels of seismicity for some time, but recently in January there were some rather intense quake swarms, at very shallow depths (some swarms were less than 1km underneath the surface), with some quakes registering up to magnitude 3.7. AVO has subsequently raised the alert level to "Yellow"(watch), and has actually directed one of their webcams to watch the volcano visually (below picture).

Live webcam snapshot from AVO.alaska.edu

Iliamna does not have a record of historical eruptions, however AVO and GVP state that it's last eruption was approximately 140-200 years ago. Active fumeroles exist at the summit, and the last activity in 1996 was similar to the current level of activity.The 1996 quake swarms were also thought to be magma dike intrusion, much like today's swarms. AVO scientists stress that this does NOT mean there will be an eruption, however I would wager that with several dike intrusions, the magma will try to find some way to the surface. In my opinion, a minor eruption is very likely at Iliamna in the coming months or years.

It is anyone's guess as to what characteristics an eruption at Iliamna would take on. It is a stratovolcano, and part of a subduction zone, so like most Aleutian and Alaskan volcanoes, it would likely be an explosive event followed by dome growth and thick lava effusion. For now, AVO is monitoring the volcano, and so am I!

*****UPDATE 3/20/2012*****

AVO has completed their initial survey of Iliamna volcano and released the following news:

"Seismicity at Iliamna Volcano remains above background. Data from Saturday's gas and observation flight indicate that the volcano is emitting elevated levels of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide, consistent with a magmatic source. It is not know, however, if this is a newly intruded magma, or whether new pathways for gas from preexisting magma have caused the increased gas flux. The amount of gas being emitted is broadly similar to levels seen in 1996-1997, when a likely magmatic intrusion but no eruption occurred at the volcano.

Observers on the flight saw vigorous and plentiful fumaroles (gas vents) at the volcano's summit, consistent with the elevated gas emissions. No obvious signs of recent rockfall, large areas of newly exposed bedrock, or unusual disturbance of the glacial ice were observed. Some deformation of the ice at the headwall of the Red Glacier on the east side of the summit was seen, but it is not clear this is related to the current volcanic unrest; avalanching of the glacier is common on this very steep area and was last seen in 2008."

So it does appear at this time that activity has at least increased visually, indicating rising temperatures from deep below. Iliamna is officially a volcano to keep an eye on!

Katla Volcano Has Another Quake Swarm

Katla volcano in Iceland is having another quake swarm today, during what some say is supposed to be a quiet time geologically for Iceland, during the harsh Winter months. Seismicity is elevated today at the Mýrdalsjökull glacier, with some quakes even occurring at the neighboring Eyjafjallajökull volcano. Eleven tremblors struck within the Katla caldera within the last 24 hours. As I write this, the swarm is ongoing. Most of the quakes except for two were below 2.0 in magnitude, with the largest being a 2.5. Many smaller >1.0 quakes occurred.

This again is probable dike intrusion into Katla, which has seen elevated seismicity and geothermal activity since its very small eruptive event last year (which produced a glacier outburst flood, and caused minor damage to bridges and roads). 

Image from Iceland Met Office showing today's quakes at Katla/Mýrdalsjökull 

Katla has been seismically active for months, with most scientists expecting an eruption soon.When is impossible to say, however this will likely be larger than last time due to the amount of magma intruded into the system. Swarms have occurred at the volcano at least a few times in any given month since June of 2011, but so far has not resulted in a large eruptive event like its neighbor Eyjafjallajökull, who's eruption in April 2010 produced a large ash cloud, carried by the jet stream, and stranded millions of travelers in Europe as airliners were grounded due to ash concerns.

Europeans fear a repeat of this event should Katla erupt, however it is anyone's guess whether an ash cloud from Katla would even follow the same pattern. It is entirely possible that the ash cloud going go East, and give the United States East Coast a taste of the headaches that Europeans suffered. Or the ash could simply blow South, into the ocean, harming no one. In any case, Katla rumbles on, gearing up for its inevitable show. 

Italy's Mt Etna Has 4th Eruption of 2012

Mt.Etna has been stealing the show lately with spectacular eruptions (called paroxysms) that have been very frequent this year. Yesterday Etna erupted producing lava fountains, and light ashfall. This is the 4th paroxysmal event of 2012, and part of Etna's regular pattern of eruptions.

Etna is (arguably) the world's most active volcano, aside from possibly Kilauea in Hawaii (although Kilauea has only been erupting continuously since 1983, Etna has been active for far longer), and is host to frequent lava flows and explosive activity. Etna has seen more activity lately, and the webcam is rather fun to watch, especially if you like to watch great lava shows.

While the eruptions do not pose a threat to any towns or population centers, Etna is a large and sprawling shield volcano, and has erupted far outside the summit previously, producing pyroclastic cinder cones, fissures, and more. The potential for an eruption on its lower flanks is an ever present threat, however this has not happened in a very long time.

6.9 Magnitude Quake Strikes Off Japan Coast

A 6.9 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Honshu, Japan near the location of last year's deadly quake and tsunami. Six large aftershocks have occurred so far in at or near the epicenter ranging from 6.1 down to 4.6.  More quakes shook the Tokyo region later in the day. The quakes off the coast of Honshu generated a small 8-inch high tsunami. No damage was reported.

This series of quakes (while rather common in the region now) comes almost exactly one year (plus a few days) after the devastating magnitude 9.0 magnitude quake.The 9.0 mega-quake damaged the Fukushima nuclear plant resulting in a meltdown and widespread radiation which has devastated a large portion of Japan and has made the land uninhabitable. Further damage was visited on Japan by a 30-40ft high tsunami wave that destroyed large portions of Japans coastal cities.

The subducting plate is now in nearly continuous motion since that event, with large quakes being a fairly regular and almost daily occurrence. it is regular for magnitude 5.0 and up quakes to hit the region along the subducting plate.

Japanese scientists are also closely watching the restive Mt.Fuji for further signs of unrest following a series of quakes in the area, and recent (very unclear) reports of "a new crater" on the NE side of Fuji (however this was NEVER confirmed), as well as reports of new fumeroles.NONE of these reports are confirmed, and translation from Japanese to English via Google translate is worthless. Volcano-report.com has however picked up the story, and I also wrote a blog earlier last month about this report, gathering all the information that I could (which wasn't much).

In any case, expect Japan to continue to be a hotbed of earthquake and volcanic activity for quite some time.

Japan's Sakurajima Volcano Has Violent Explosion

The Sakurajima volcano in Japan had it's most violent explosion since 2009, Japanese media and other sources are reporting. Japan's most active volcano in recent years, it had completed the year 2011 with the highest number of explosions on record since people began counting. Activity at the volcano shows no signs of slowing down.

Sakurajima is a complex stratovolcano with many vents, only a couple of the vents have been active in historical time. the volcanic complex is constructed within the Aira caldera, a massive caldera that formed about 22,000 years ago. Sakurajima is a post caldera cone, and has seen much activity throughout human history.

The Smithsonian GVP's summary of Sakurajima is as follows:

"Sakura-jima, one of Japan's most active volcanoes, is a post-caldera cone of the Aira caldera at the northern half of Kagoshima Bay. Eruption of the voluminous Ito pyroclastic flow was associated with the formation of the 17 x 23-km-wide Aira caldera about 22,000 years ago. The construction of Sakura-jima began about 13,000 years ago and built an island that was finally joined to the Osumi Peninsula during the major explosive and effusive eruption of 1914. Activity at the Kita-dake summit cone ended about 4,850 years ago, after which eruptions took place at Minami-dake. Frequent historical eruptions, recorded since the 8th century, have deposited ash on Kagoshima, one of Kyushu's largest cities, located across Kagoshima Bay only 8 km from the summit. The largest historical eruption took place during 1471-76."

It Is Official: El Hierro Eruption Has Ended

INVOLCAN has declared the eruption of El Hierro to be over, and the alert status of the island has been lowered from Red to Yellow. The village of La Restinga can finally open its doors to tourists again, however maritime activity is still restricted due to probable degassing, and swimming in the water is still off limits pending a chemical analysis of the water to determine its safety. Sea life has already begun to repopulate the area, a good sign for the fisherman of the village.

The eruption at El Hierro was preceded by a lengthy period of volcanic earthquakes, which were used to size up the magma chamber. The island was on Yellow alert for a long time, before a "jacuzzi" was spotted in the ocean, and harmonic tremor increased. The eruption of the underwater cone "Bob" started as an underwater fissure eruption, eventually resulting in a cone building event. Several collapses of the main vent stalled the eruption, which stopped and started several times. On occasion, floating "Lava Balloons", or gaseous bubbles encased in molten rock, would float to the surface and emit steam, and sometimes flames once the bubbles burst and allowed oxygen to interact with the heat. This however was as exciting as the eruption got.

For about a month now, the eruption has all but ceased entirely. Harmonic tremor has been at low to background levels, and there has been very little if any surface activity since February. This is what led the scientists to declare the eruption over, although their maintaining of alert level Yellow does indeed reflect what many of us know, that activity can resume at any time, and caution is still in order. Some volcanoes have a small cone building event as a precursor to a larger eruption, something that is certainly not out of the question.

Current uplift sensors show the island to be stable, which could mean that the magma reservoir has not deflated, and merely extruded the lava to form "Bob" because it was the easiest path to the surface. Quakes are still ongoing at El Hierro in an area not near "Bob", and it is still worth keeping an eye on the island. El Hierro and the Canaries have been compared to the Hawaiian islands in regards to the type of eruptions it produces. The theory goes that El Hierro, like Hawaii, is a hotspot type volcano. These are highly unpredictable as we have no way of imaging or monitoring the mantle plumes that are though to be responsible for hotspot volcanoes.

It is my guess that activity will pause now for probably months, and either slow subsidence will take place, or activity will resume in another location. It is now a game of wait and see. In any case, I doubt that the residents of El Hierro will ever forget now that they are living on an active volcano, and will be ever mindful of the power that lies beneath their feet.

Tremor Gradually Increasing Again At El Hierro

Harmonic tremor at El Hierro is very gradually increasing, at an almost imperceptible rate, but it is occurring. The tremor from yesterday to today is now about twice as strong as it was, but is still very low, and the eruptive vent is not displaying any surface activity at this time. This could mean that the magma is slowly (and I mean VERY slowly) building up again and is re-pressurizing the vent. At this time however, this is all uncertain, and we will need to wait and see if this is an anomaly, or a pattern.

Tremor readings at El Hierro, showing a very slowly increasing amplitude.

The eruption at El Hierro has been at a very low level the past couple of weeks, but is still apparently ongoing. The eruption is being compared to submarine eruptions in Hawaii such as Loihi, in that underwater flows are continuing slowly, but surely. Degassing is still taking place, although at a very low level compared to a couple of weeks ago. The "Jacuzzi" is spotted intermittently, but remains weak and doesn't stick around for long. It is possible that the activity could resume, or simply diminish.

Another Quake Swarm At Katla And Whispers Of Impending eruption [UPDATED 3-5-2012]

Katla volcano has had over 16 quakes in the caldera area in the last 36 hours. 11 of these were in the last 12 hours as of this writing, with most a bit under mag 1.0, but some almost to a 1.9 magnitude. The largest eent was a 2.1 mag quake slightly outside the caldera. Harmonic tremor is also being detected at the volcano, again raising the specter of a Katla eruption. Whether or not it's going to be a small event like the 2011 minor eruption remains to be seen, but one thing is becoming abundantly clear. Katla is waking up, and it will erupt soon.

My guess based on constant observation of this volcano and reading Icelandic blogs and media reports is that Katla will likely have an eruption either this year, or sometime next year. As there are no instruments that can tell us the location of the magma in the chamber, or how much is being injected, it is very hard to tell, if not impossible to predict what will happen. If history is any guide, we might be expecting a very large eruption sometime soon. But then again, looking to history for apparent patterns in volcanic activity is something we humans do, even if it truly means nothing in reality.

A large Katla eruption has been expected after its neighbor blew up in 2010. Eyjafjallajökull has been characterized by some volcanologists as being slightly connected to Katla's magma chamber via a lateral dike-like structure. Historically speaking, each recorded eruption at Eyjafjallajökull was followed usually within months by a Katla eruption. But this sort of proves how historical "patterns" may not always be so. It has since been almost two whole years since Eyjafjallajökull erupted, and despite the tiny eruption from Katla (which may have been a result of left over magma from Eyjafjallajökull's eruption via the lateral dike I mentioned), Katla has remained restless, but non-eruptive as some people predicted.

Time will tell, but it's probably a good time to start really keeping a close eye on what's going on at Katla, especially for Iceland and Europe. Due to its location next to Eyjafjallajökull, it is quite possible that a large ash producing event from Katla would have very similar effects on the Eurozone that Eyjafjallajökull did when it exploded. This could easily cause more economic hardship to Europe, at probably the worst time to do so if it were to erupt rather soon.

I'm going to be keeping my eyes peeled on Katla this week, and if more activity occurs, you'll hear about it here!

*****UPDATE*****

Another swarm of quakes were recorded today at the Katla caldera. 4-5 quakes ranging from less than 1.0 to around 1.5 occurred within an hour period. Again, this is most likely more magma dike intrusion into the caldera system.

El Hierro Eruption Continues At Low Level

While the harmonic tremor readings are nearly flat, and visuals on the surface of the ocean have been few and fr between, the El Hierro submarine eruption is continuing at a low rate. For the last few days, the "jacuzzi" and stain area have made faint appearances, and water temperatures over the vent are still high enough to generate a steamy haze over the vent area. Today the jacuzzi area is a bit stronger, even though harmonic tremor is about the same as it has been for the last week or so.

The earthquakes to the West of the eruption zone have been continuing, varying from up to 20 quakes per day, down to a low of about 7. They are getting shallower in this area, indicating the possibility of more magma movement possibly to a different area. This could explain why "Bob" (the unofficial name for the submarine volcano) has shown minimal activity, because magma may be finding another route through the crust. It could also be that "Bob" is simply re-pressurizing, and the renewed jacuzzi and heat activity could indicate that the cone itself is heating up again and getting ready for another round of eruptive activity. Only time will tell. This could simply be underwater cooling and degassing, but this would not account for the activity today (the ocean is a GREAT heat sink, especially for cone building events such as this).

There have been regular scientific expeditions to the eruption area, with several scientific vessels taking bathymetry readings, and sonar scans of the ocean floor. From what I've read on Earthquake-report.com (they are fortunate enough to have a local reporting for them and taking daily photos), an ROV missions is planned in the near future to take direct video of the vent area, however due to currents and sometimes bad weather, they haven't had much luck getting the remotely operated vehicle deployed yet (they are insanely expensive, so they will always err on the side of caution when it comes to this equipment).

So until we have direct observations from the sea floor, it is hard to tell what the state of the eruptive cone is in at this time. All we can infer from tremor, and surface observations is that this eruption is continuing at a low level as it has been for the past week or so. This could change at any time.

In a previous post about El Hierro, I pointed out the similarities between El Hierro and the Hawaii island chain. While Earthquake-report.com picked up on this idea as well, they erroneously compared this eruption to that of Kilauea, instead of its newer and less active neighbor, Loihi. The surface eruption on Hawaii's Kilauea volcano is unimpeded by ocean water, and is able to create stable channels for lava to flow onto the surface. Loihi (first detected in eruption in 1996) is a submarine volcano SW of the Kilauea summit, and has periods of activity followed by long periods of dormancy, and has a lot of the same characteristics of the El Hierro submarine eruption.

While it is my belief that El Hierro, like Hawaii, is a "hot spot" type volcanic system, the dynamics are different from Hawaii. The chemical makeup of the lava is different, the location is certainly different, and instead of an underwater shield volcano (like Loihi), this seems to be a mere cone building event not separate from the main volcanic system at El Hierro.

Hot spot volcanic systems like the Hawaiian and the Canary islands can have long period of eruption like Kilauea, or short periods of strong activity... really the range of activity these spots are capable of is huge. El Hierro might be entering a phase of long term activity given the quakes, their locations, and the duration of what people thought was probably going to be a very small event. This is a volcano still worth watching, and is of great scientific interest.

*****UPDATE 2/27/2012*****

Activity at El Hierro is unchanged. Low and almost nonexistent harmonic tremor, coupled with light degassing and small jacuzzi visible. Probably the actual eruption of "Bob" the underwater cinder cone is over. However GPS data indicates uplift of the island of El Hierro itself, and quakes are clustering at the northern end of the island. El Hierro appears to be inflating, and it is not unreasonable to think that another cone building event, possibly on the island itself, may occur in the future. When is impossible to say.

More Activity at Salton Sea (Salton Buttes) California

The Salton Sea is shaking. Over the last few weeks, many very shallow tremors have been occurring on the fault line that runs through this SE California farming town. The largest events so far have been around 3.5 in magnitude, and are clustering on the SE shore of the Salton Sea, just East, and overlapping, the Salton Buttes; lava domes that were extruded along this spreading fault line some 5,000 years ago.

The Salton Sea is home to a geothermal power plant, as well as having the unfortunate location of being right on top of a spreading rift that includes the Cerro Prieto volcanic center, near where the Easter 2010 Southern California quake struck, shaking San Diego County and Mexico with a 7.2 magnitude quake.

The region has shown many quakes since the 7.2 quake, most of these fault stress adjustments and minor slippage events. It is likely that Southern California will experience heightened seismicity for decades. This is actually good for Southern California since tectonic stresses are being released slowly. When quakes stop in this area, it's time to worry about another big one like the Easter quake. Fortunately for Californians, our buildings are built to withstand up to a magnitude 8.0 quake with little to no damage. The same cannot be said for the majority of Baja California and Tecate, which experienced heavy damage from that quake.

As the Salton Buttes are classified by CalVO as an extreme risk for future eruption, the general consensus seems to be that volcanic activity in the area is expected in the future, however the area is currently not monitored by CalVO. It is for that reason that I'm planning to go to the area to look for myself to see if there is anything strange like gas fissures, plant kill, or heightened activity of the various mud volcanoes in the area. Other indicators of rising magma could be dying fish in the lake, however that's actually pretty common since the lake is one of the most polluted on the planet.

The Salton Sea is surrounded by agriculture, and ghost towns, where abandoned cars and other vehicles, as well as garbage and toxic waste, were carelessly tossed into the Salton Sea. The agriculture activity is responsible for a lot of the pollutants and toxins in the lake. It is common to see dead fish and other animal life on the shores of this lake. Locals would probably rather starve than eat the fish out of that lake. So dead fish int he lake would not be a good indicator of activity, unless an extraordinary amount of fish ended up washing to shore.

In any case, I hope to have some pictures and direct observations of this area soon... gas has now climbed to an astonishing $4.59 a gallon for 87 octane and is expected to rise sharply in the coming days/weeks. So if you'd really like to see some firsthand pictures, video, etc, please do feel free to toss me a couple of bucks on my Google Donate button, which will go directly to this planned trip. I'll probably end up going anyway, but it would make a difference to me if the readers of this blog chipped in for the trip... there is something going on out there that hasn't happened in a while, and I, like you, am quite curious. 

Costa Rica's Rincón de la Vieja Volcano Erupts

Rincón de la Vieja, Costa Rica's largest volcanic complex, is experiencing an eruptive phase after 14 years of quiescence. Tremor and explosive activity has been reported by Wired.com Eruptions blog, and local Costa Rican news sources. The explosions were not damaging to surrounding areas, and are reported to have been contained inside the most active (middle) crater of Rincón de la Vieja. Volcanologists say that this is not the result of new magma being injected into the crater, rather this is a phreatic eruption.

Phreatic eruptions occur when water seeps into cracks or fissures, and comes into contact with cooling magma or superheated rock, which in turn causes the water to flash into steam, creating enough pressure for an explosive event. These types of eruptions are considered to be one of the least dangerous types, however they are still quite dangerous as they can occur with little to no warning. These types of eruptions generally do not generate any seismic signals until they actually occur, and are not able to be predicted. They are typically small eruptions, however larger phreatic eruptions, more specifically, ones that can create a 'maar' have occurred in many other volcanic systems, such as the Soda Lakes maars in Nevada, or the Ubehebe craters.

It is probable that this will be some of the only activity for now from Rincón de la Vieja for a while, unless new magma is injected into the chamber. It is anyone's guess at the moment as to if this has occurred or will occur. However the Costa Rican government would be wise to excersize caution, as a 1966 eruption caused a very large, VEI 3 sized eruption, which produced many deadly pyroclastic flows. An earlier eruption in (around) 1820 BC produced a much larger VEI 4 size eruption, which produced the Río Blanco tephra layer, was the largest eruption of the volcano that we know of.

Rincón de la Vieja is the site of geothermal drilling and exploitation.

Rincón de la Vieja does have the potential for extremely explosive events, and it is looking like the volcano is awaking from its slumber... at least for a little while. It is entirely possible that after these phreatic explosions, that will be all and the volcano will go back to sleep. I for one wouldn't plan any trips to the summit any time soon, and would opt to admire the volcano from a good distance!

Volcanoes and Doomsayers

Humanity as a whole has either revered, or feared volcanoes depending on the culture experiencing this geological process. Some cultures deify volcanoes and associate them with various gods, while others fear volcanoes as a malevolent and destructive force. Science has explained a great many mysteries of volcanic processes since the dawn of man, but with progress on the scientific front comes resistance from the spiritual front. Such has been the case since anything resembling the scientific method has been used.

From religious fundamentalists who believe in the "End of Days", to conspiracy theorists who postulate that governments around the world can actually make volcanoes erupt, volcanoes in the media have had a bad rap since nearly the beginning of written language.

My blog, which is really catching on thanks to news organizations, other bloggers, and enthusiasts (my blog has recently overtaken several in Internet ratings, probably due to the fact that I actually vet my information, and check my spelling and grammar!), is dedicated to the idea that science and the scientific method are better used to explain the reality in which we live than say, spiritual or pseudo-predictive opinions. That all being said, I find it both amusing and frightening that information about volcanoes is used in the realm of spirituality to frighten or persuade people into believing that the end times is upon us.

Let this be said and understood. The Earth IS billions of years old. It HAS hosted many generations of life from single celled organisms to macroscopic life forms that inhabit and in some cases dominate the planet on which we live and grow. From amoebas to dinosaurs, from small simians to humans, this planet has a rich (and provable via the fossil record) history of life over countless and unfathomable amounts of time. This time has been filled (on this planet) with geological events, cosmic events, and plenty of important biological events. To consider that we are in some way special and unique in this span of time is, in my view, wholly foolish. We are but specks of dust in the grand scheme of the cosmos, and our planet is unique.

Volcanoes are definitely powerful forces. They do indeed inflict destruction on civilized man, but also provide benefits of which news and religious organizations often fail to recognize. Why, we might not even exist if it weren't for the volcanic chemistry set that the Earth is made of. Volcanic soil produces some of the most fertile land that we are capable of farming due to the minerals that it creates. Volcanic processes create new land and real estate. They fuel our economies in some cases when benign eruptions draw tourists to our towns. They create some of the most spectacular and awesome landscapes that we've come to know and love (take my banner on my page for example, a panorama I took of Crater Lake in Oregon during a gorgeous day!). Or how about the materials we use to make cement, roads, bar-b-que pits, rock gardens, and more?

Yes, volcanoes can and do visit the occasional mass destruction on our planets inhabitants. But they do give as good as they get. If this planet had no volcanoes, we wouldn't even exist. So before anyone goes on a tirade about "the impending eruptions of super volcanoes" or "Anak Krakatau (or as the less informed know it, Krakatoa) is going to wipe out all life in the Southern Hemisphere", you may wish to re-think your position on volcanoes. After all, chances are 100% that the ground you are standing on had an igneous origin, or that the materials you use in every day life are created by volcanoes.

We as humans tend to build structures and societies where the land can produce crops, and the scenery is impressive. And it is no coincidence that this usually means that you're building on a former area of intense volcanism, due to the resources that are derived from volcanoes. We currently generate power, farm crops, harvest cinders for gardens and building materials, chemicals like sulphur and gases, pumice for soaps and exfoliation products, even toothpaste... the resources we actually get vs what we give back from volcanoes are one sided in our favor. So before demonizing volcanoes and blaming them for an impending apocalypse, try and think of all the things they provide that make your life easier, and then think about how absurd it is to think that a volcano will (at least in our lifetime) end life on the planet as we know it. Chances are good that aside from a volcanoes small radius of destruction, that in the end, everyone benefits.

That's the truth of the matter.

Alaska'a Kanaga Volcano Raised To Alert Level Yellow

Alaska's Kanaga Volcano in the Aleutian Islands is showing signs of activity according to seismicity and observations made by AVO. The latest report states:

"Possible explosive activity and a likely ash cloud indicate new unrest at Kanaga Volcano. AVO is increasing the Aviation Color Code to YELLOW and the Volcano Alert Level to ADVISORY.Volcanic tremor was detected from 15:23-15:27 UTC (6:23 AM AKST) followed by numerous small events for about an hour at Kanaga Volcano. A possible weak ash cloud was also detected in AVHRR satellite data from 15:35 UTC about 39 km (24 mi) NE of the volcano.This new unrest indicates a possibility for sudden explosions of ash to occur at any time, and ash clouds exceeding 20,000 feet above sea level may develop. If a large, explosive, ash-producing event occurs, the local seismic network, satellite ash alarms, infrasound, and volcanic lightning will alert AVO to the new activity."

Kanaga's last eruptive phase was in 1994-1995, and produced large ash plumes reaching up to 20,000 meters. 

NASA MODIS Satellite Captures Remote Eruption

Some volcanoes are simply too remote, or obscure to have regular monitoring by human eyes. That's where NASA's MODIS satellite comes in to fill the gap. From monitoring volcanoes in Alaska's Aleutian islands, to the most remote volcanic islands like Ascensión, MODIS has been able to capture remote volcanoes doing their thing while nobody's watching. MODIS just captured the very remote and uninhabited Tinakula island in a steam emitting eruptive phase. This would have gone unnoticed by us humans if not for the satellite.

Image from NASA MODIS Satellite of Tinakula in eruption.

The isolated volcano is surrounded by a series of small coral atolls, and sits about 20 miles NNW of Nendo Island of the Solomons. The island was not always uninhabited. An eruption in 1840 produced catastrophic pyroclastic flows that covered the entire island, and annihilated the small indigenous population that called it home. No efforts by anyone have been made to re-establish a population (gee, I wonder why?). The volcano is frequently seen in eruption by passers by, and has been since colonial times.

NASA's MODIS satellite has been busy lately keeping track of the slowly erupting Cleveland Volcano in Alaska, as it continues to be on alert level Orange (out of green, yellow, orange, red) as it effuses a slowly growing lava dome at its summit. AVO speculates that the slow eruption could burst into a more explosive phase at any time, so flights over the volcano are not permitted at this time.

MODIS has thermal sensors to detect heat anomalies, ash emissions, and steam. With a high resolution telescopic camera, the images it is capable of producing are highly detailed. It is capable of seeing wavelengths that our eyes cannot, which proved useful in detecting lava flows from Nyamuragira volcano in the Congo, as well as the new eruption of the long dormant Nabro volcano in Eritrea.