Santorini Inflating

The picturesque Greek island of Santorini is experiencing heightened seismicity, and magma chamber inflation according to an article on Live Science. The island has inflated by up to 14,000,000 cubic meters of magma, and deformation of the island has displaced outwardly from the caldera by up to 5 inches since the onset of activity last year. While it is highly unlikely that this means an eruption is imminent, the Live Science article fails to point out that hte last time Santorini was active was not the famed Minoan eruption, but last erupted in 1950, and manifested as lava dome growth and lava effusion in the center of the caldera. This formed the central island of Nea Kameni.

Inflation of the Santorini caldera is a danger, given that the last period of activity was so recent, however deflation and inflation (D/I) events occur frequently at many large volcanoes, and do not typically result in an eruption.

Santorini volcano, as is, is incapable of producing the same type of powerful eruption that ended the Minoan civilization. The caldera has already collapsed, and the most power it was capable of producing was expended millenia ago. A modern day eruption would likely be another dome building event, with possible pyroclastic flow, and lava effusion in the center of the caldera. This would pose a minor threat to the residents of Santorini, but probably not more than that.

Greece's Santorini Volcano Inflating

Santorini, Greece's famed caldera volcano is inflating according to GPS instruments and volcanologists. The inflation has also been accompanied by increased seismicity, and volcanologists state that the magma chamber has grown by about 500 million cubic feet. Scientists are quick however to point out that this does not mean an eruption of Santorini is imminent, and even if there were to be an eruption, the conditions for a caldera-forming  eruption that wiped out the original Santorini island and the Minoan civilization are not present.

An eruption at Santorini however could be disastrous for the Greek country, which is struggling financially and is barely getting back to solvency.

Any eruption at Santorini would likely be further building of its central island cone, or submarine in nature, but could easily end up as a powerful explosive event which could devastate the harbors and anchorages within the caldera, and would definitely be disruptive. The last eruption of Santorini was in 1950, and produced a small lava dome and flow on the middle island of Nea Kameni. The previous eruption in 1866 produced explosive eruptions which did result in some injuries to scientists observing the eruption (rather closely and dangerously by today's standards).

There is no chance of an eruption on the scale of the famed Minoan eruption, due to the fact that it takes a supervolcanic or caldera forming eruption hundreds of thousands of years to really recharge and create the conditions for such an event.While an eruption at Santorini would be hugely disruptive to residents and tourists alike, the most likely scenario is that it will simply end up being scientifically fascinating, and benign. Time will tell however, and the world will continue to watch.

5.2 Mag Earthquake Strikes Near Santorini, Greece

A 5.2 magnitude quake struck approximately 30 miles Southwest of Santorini Island today at 4:42 UTC. The quake was followed by 4.1 and 4.2 aftershocks. 

Image from Google Earth with USGS overlay.

Santorini volcano was last active in the 1956 when a large earthquake and subsequent volcanic eruption resulted in the demolition of buildings and evacuations. An island was formed in the middle of the caldera, and thermal activity still occurs. While these quakes are not near the magma chamber, they do have the potential of destabilizing the region. More than likely a few aftershocks will continue to be recorded in the quake area.

*****UPDATE 1/27/2012*****

Another earthquake registering mag 5.2 has hit the same area, slightly SW of the original quake. This seems to confirm a statement from Greece's geologists that the Santorini fault is now in motion, and we could expect more quakes. Whether or not the quake activity affects nearby Santorini/Thera volcano remains to be seen, but scientists are being very cautious at this point in regards to statements. They are however closely monitoring the situation. Likely this will cause more fault slips and afterschocks. It will be interesting to see if there is a cascade effect up the fault to Santorini, but at this time it appears the activity may be moving away from the caldera. I will post more updates if anything new occurs.

*****UPDATE 2 1/27/2012*****

A 4.7 aftershock has hit near the epicenter of the first 5.2 quake.