Iceland Has Major Quake Swarm At Reykjanes Peninsula [UPDATED]

 Reykjanes, Iceland is experiencing another major quake swarm, with the largest quake so far at magnitude 5.7. The swarm is in the same general area as previous seismicity within recent years, and is very probably related to more magma intrusion. Magma intrusion and system inflation has been going on for about two years in this area, which is frequented by tourist visiting the famous Blue Lagoon resort spa. 

Screen snip from Iceland Met Office website showing the large quake swarm. Green stars denote temblors larger than magnitude 3.

 The quake swarm is assumed to be related to the inflation of the Reykjanes volcanic system, however the area is host to numerous volcanic centers, and it is unclear whether they are also being activated by the recent magma intrusions. In the same area as the quake swarm is the Krisuvik volcanic system, and the Pleistocene Fagradalsfjall system. To the slight East of the swarm, there is the Brennisteinsfjöll system as well.

Icelandic news has reported that after an overflight of the Reykjanes area, new steaming vents have opened up under cooled lava flows, and could be seen from the air. A hazard level has been declared, to give the local authorities the tools they need to coordinate disaster management activities should more tremors cause damage to nearby towns, or, if an eruption should occur.

Eruptions in the area have occurred in historical times, with the most recent confirmed eruption occurring in 1830. The last quake of similar magnitude was a 5.6 quake that was followed by some 1,700 aftershocks in late October of 2020. This did not result in an eruption, however deformation was recorded, including uplift of several cm. Gas odors have also been reported after the large quakes, which suggests that either rock fracture is releasing stored gases, or new magma is increasing gas venting. 

In either case, magma is certainly involved, and if the area continues to experience large dike intrusions, the likelihood of an eruption in the area increases with each swarm.

It is unclear whether this sequence will lead to an eruption. Reports from Jon Frimann's blog suggest that Iceland has raised the aviation color code over Reykjanes to Yellow (caution), so it does seem that at least some people think the situation warrants watching.

An eruption would probably threaten the Blue Lagoon, the town of Grindavik, and possibly the towns north of the eruption with pahoehoe lava flows, and gases. While submarine eruptions have had episodes of VEI 3-4, the land eruptions have been largely effusive, so it is probably not going to be the same as when Eyjaflallajökull or Grimsvötn erupted with large ash clouds. 

*****UPDATE 2/26/2021*****

The quake swarm at Reykjanes continues, with renewed vigor this morning as several temblors over magnitude 4 have struck the region near the epicenter of the 5.7 quake of Wednesday.

Chart of today's more vigorous activity from Iceland Met Office.

It is unclear at this time whether the quake swarm is related to movement of magma, or regional faulting. The sheer number of quakes has created data problems for IMO, who are having some difficulty in cleaning the data up. 

The more intense activity today suggests that this may continue on for some time. An eruption is certainly a possibility if the intense activity sustains, and if the Reykjanes/Krisuvik system is injected with more magma. 

For now, all anyone can do is watch and speculate. The reality is the quakes themselves do pose dangers in the area from rockslides, falling rocks, ground cracking, and infrastructure damage, which is certainly enough to cause some problems. 

    

  *****UPDATE 3/1/2021*****

Magma injection at about 6km depth has now been confirmed on Reyjkjanes Peninsula between the Reykjanes and Krysuvik volcanic systems. This was confirmed by IMO, and their post can be seen here in Icelandic.

The English translation reads:

Quake-hit Reykjanes peninsula still ongoing

New evidence gives reason to take a closer look at the scenario facing a dynamic intersection beneath the area of Mount Fagradals

1.3.2021

Updated 01.03. at 18.15

The Scientific Advisory Council met at a remote meeting today to discuss the earthquake in the Reykjanes peninsula. The meeting was attended by representatives from the Icelandic Meteorological Office, the University of Iceland, the Environment Agency, Isavia-ANS, HS-Orka and ÍSOR.

Until the meeting, the Bureau of Meteorology's automatic earthquake system has measured about 1800 tremors since midnight, and they are mostly confined to areas SW of Keili and Trölladyngju. Of these 1800, 23 are magnitude 3 or larger, and about 3 tremors are 4 in size or larger. The largest from midnight was measured at 16:35, 5.1 magnitude and originated about 1 km ASA at Bowling.

The Scientific Council also reviewed satellite images (InSAR) received today. Processing from those images shows more entry than previously observed in the area in the last few days. The most likely explanation is that the dynamic is forming under the area where the greatest seismic activity has been in the last few days. This new data will be better processed, including modelling in order to shed clearer light on the progress of cases.

In light of these new data discussed at today's scientific council meeting and experts have reviewed, it is important to take a closer look at the scenario facing a dynamic intersection under the area at Mount Fagradals.

Possible scenarios:

• It will reduce seismic activity in the coming days or weeks.
• The devastations will be increasing with larger tremors up to 6 magnitude in the vicinity of Mount Fagradals
• Tremor of sizes up to 6.5 occurs in the Sulfur Mountains
• Dynamic interjections continue in the vicinity of Mount Fagradals:
  • Dynamic insertion activity decreases and dynamic clots
  • Leading to a flow eruption with lava flows that probably won't threaten settlements

Current activity in the Reykjanes peninsula is sectioned and it is difficult to predict accurate progress and whether one scenario is more likely than another. New data is expected later this week that may shed clearer light on the reasons for this push. The Scientific Council will meet again tomorrow to further evaluate the available data as well as evaluate new measurements.

The latest processing of satellite imagery from sentinel-1 received this morning. It shows more entry than previously observed in the area in the last few days and in the area where the greatest seismic activity has been.

*****UPDATE 3/4/2021*****

The IMO has raised the alert level of the Krysuvik central volcano on the Reykjanes peninsula to ORANGE as seismicity, and tremor remains sustained. Iceland is expecting that an eruption may occur in the area between the Pleistocene Fagradsfell volcano and 

the minor volcanic tuya of Keilir. 

As of the time of this writing no volcanic surface activities have begun. However this can change with little to no warning.

Iceland authorities have stated they do no expect that any eruption in this area will threaten any human settlements or infrastructure, however this is only a guess at this time.

RUV.IS has posted a link to its live camera feed of the suspected area where an eruption may break out. You can view that here.

The quakes and tremor continue with many quakes above 2.0 magnitude, several above 3.0 magnitude, and about 2 so far today above 4.0 magnitude. 

If an eruption were to occur, it would likely be similar to Hawaiian style eruptions, with a fissure opening and lava oozing out at slow pace. The threat to human life, given the location will be minimal. The main effects in the area could be acrid air caused by SO2 and Florine gases, with the slight possibility of lapilli fall.

An eruption in this area would be significant only in the fact that that the Krysuvik system last erupted some 680 years ago, which would make this the first contemporary eruption in the area. Records in Iceland's historical archives record multiple eruptions that have occurred in the area since Vikings and settlers populated the area in the late 800's.

You can monitor the activity on Iceland Meteorological site at this link.

*****UPDATE 3/5/2021*****

No eruption has started yet despite some confusing reporting. New magma has been confirmed in the system, and is suspected to be at a depth of about 1.2 miles, or 2km, in a vertical magma dyke somewhere between Fagradalsfjall and Keilir Pliestocene volcanoes. However, reports have also suggested that magma may be rising in several volcanic systems on the peninsula, and not just Fagradalsfjall. 

An article on mlb.is suggests that the magma has also shifted away from Fagradalsfjall to the SW, and could conceivably erupt in the Reykjanes volcanic system. Models have actually suggested that if an eruption were to occur here, this would threaten the famous Blue Lagoon (Bláa lónið), as well as the Southern town of Grindavik, which was previously assumed to be safe from the activity. 

It is still too early to accurately tell whether an eruption is absolutely certain, and where it will erupt from. But if trends continue, an eruption is likely. 

It will be interesting to see what Iceland does if lava threatens Grindavik. Previously on the island of Heimaey, in 1973, the Eldfell volcano erupted and lava threatened the main harbor, which would have effectively cut off the residents from their livelihoods. Icelanders fought back the lava flows with large seawater pumps, creating a cooled lava wall that actually ended up improving the safety of the harbor. While many homes were lost to the eruption, the Icelanders were able to save the main source of income for the island, preserving its way of life, and achieved for the very first time, a successful effort to stop of divert a lava flow. 

If the town of Grindavik becomes threatened with encroaching lava, it will be interesting to see what Icelanders come up with. Grindavik is a coastal town, so it probably wouldn't be too big a challenge to install pumps that could cool a slowly advancing flow. 

In any case, if an eruption does happen, we likely won't see it for a few days to weeks. And sometimes, activity like this doesn't end up resulting an eruption at all. Which of course is frustrating to those living in the area under that kind of uncertainty. 

*****UPDATE 3/7/2021*****

Fagradalsfjall had a magnitude 5.0-5.2 (depending on if you're referencing IMO or USGS, respectively) tremor last evening, followed by a spurt of 3.0-4.0 temblors. A brief period of harmonic tremor was recorded which lasted for about 20 minutes.

Earthquake activity has shifted again to the WSW, and the dike intrusion is progressing at a steady but not breakneck pace. While an eruption is still likely to occur if seismicity persists, it is still not certain, and now, the seismicity is decreasing at a noticeable rate throughout the day. 

A screengrab from IMO clearly shows the diminishing frequency and strength of quakes, however the left side of the graph shows a similar lull in activity before renewed, more powerful, and numerous quakes. 

The lull in activity is very likely temporary, but of course this is not certain. All that can be said for now is that the energy in the swarm had a nice jolt about 48 hours ago now, but that it has since diminished significantly.

Deformation and GPS results in conjunction with INSAR measurements will probably be more crucial as time goes on, as many fissure eruptions are not necessarily detectable by seismicity alone. On the big island of Hawaii, in 2018, a quake series was detected under Leilani Estates, preceded by droppage in Halema'uma'u's lava lake. The quakes stopped after some time, and fissures quietly opened and began to issue lava flows of older, cooler magma from previous intrusions first, then, younger, hotter magma was able to escape, which caused faster flowing lavas. The resulting eruption left over 700 homes buried when the lava finally stopped flowing. 

Whatever does happen in Iceland's Reykjanes peninsula, it will be of immense scientific interest, and hopefully, not a major threat to any human settlement. But as the eruption of Kilauea should teach us, you cannot predict what Madam Pele is going to do. 

*****UPDATE 3/9/2021*****

Two periods of tremor have occurred within the past 48 hours. Just about an hour ago, a 4.0 magnitude temblor struck the SW area of Fagradalsfjall. Seismicity has been on the upward trend for the past several hours, with little sign now of slowing down. If the dike intrusion does not erupt during this swarm, it will become increasingly likely with ever subsequent tremor episode, as the magma is now thought to be less than 1km below the surface. 

Currently the best webcam angle, in my opinion, is located here on Ruv.is website. 

Screenshot from IMO showing an increase in seismic energy and quake frequency to the right.

While it cannot be predicted when the eruption might begin, it is looking more certain that one will happen in hours, days, or weeks. 

**A 5.1 magnitude quake just struck, the strongest to hit the area in weeks. This was followed by a 4.5 and many smaller quakes below 3.0. 

*****UPDATE 3/15/2021*****

Last evening there was a large 5.4 magnitude quake, followed some 24+ hours later by a ~4.3 magnitude quake. Many smaller quakes have occurred, however their frequency is diminishing quickly.

This could a be a precursor to the actual eruption. Quakes are not necessarily prevalent before the onset of a fissure/dyke eruption, as the ground may already have the cracks necessary for the magma to seep up through. 

Iceland media has reported that the dyke width has increased by some 20cm after the large quake, which may have widened the magma corridor. This could mean that further quakes could be unlikely if the magma no longer requires rock-fracture events to advance upward out of the crust.

This is of course, not certain, as surges of magma injection can renew quakes at any time, or the weight and displacement factors of the magma dyke can spur more 'trigger tremors'. 

It is now likely only a matter of time until an eruption occurs. There are no signs suggesting that the magma injection has slowed, or that the dyke intrusion has slowed its advance toward the surface. 

An eruption can occur without warning, or maybe it gives a short one. Either way, it is increasingly like that one will occur. 

*****UPDATE 3/17/2021*****

The quake activity has notably decreased after a 3.6 magnitude temblor struck the Fagradalsfjall area earlier today. After this quake, subsequent quakes have been few, and much lower in magnitude, with only 1 measuring 2.0 in the last several hours. 

Graph from IMO showing the decreasing severity of the quake swarm in Reykjanes Peninsula.

Tremor, however, continues to indicate magma injection into the dyke between Keilir and Fagrdalsfjall, with reports of cracks appearing in the presumed intrusion area. 

It is important to note that quakes occur due to the displacement of earth and crust, and do not necessarily indicate where magma is in the shallower depths. If the crust has been sufficiently weakened to the point that magma can ascend unimpeded by surface rock, it will not generate quakes. A similar situation occurred during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano on the big island of Hawaii. Prior to lava erupting from fissures, seismicity notably decreased, and the lava quietly began to effuse in the Leilani Estates neighborhood.

It is unknown whether the current seismic decline in Reykjanes Peninsula means that an eruption is imminent, or won't occur at all. Only time will tell. In the meantime, the nearby towns are on edge.

Soufriere St. Vincent Volcano Begins To Build Lava Dome

***UPDATE 12/30/2020***

News coverage has begun reporting on the developments at Soufriere St. Vincent. Some reports are falsely posting articles which show an ash column above the volcano, however the eruption is purely effusive/dome building at this time and no explosions have occurred as yet. 

The alert level has been raised from Yellow to Orange, and scientists are intensely monitoring the volcano in an effort to give at least 48 hours notification to residents should an explosive eruption be imminent.

It seems that the island of Martinique has also decided to raise their alert level, as seismicity has recently been detected under the volcano. This is the first time the alert has been raised since its last eruption in 1932.

________________________________________________________________________________

Original article

 Soufriere St. Vincent in the West Indies islands, NE of Venezuela has begun exhibiting lava dome growth, after decades of silence, having last erupted in 1979 after years of activity. The current dome growth appears to be occurring at the South end of the main crater of Soufriere St. Vincent. Vigorous steaming was observed, followed by slow uplift of land between the 1970's lava dome, and the crater wall. 

A post from Facebook on the Vulcanología Esia page revealed the following sequence of events:

Image from Vulcanologia Esia Facebook group.

The last eruption of the volcano produced, in 1979, a VEI 3 scale eruption, and has had many eruptions of VEI 4 magnitude in the past.

Given scant news coverage of the volcano at this time, it is unknown how this eruption will progress. It could remain a mostly dome building, effusive event, or it could turn explosive if the dome event is succeeded by an explosive/pyroclastic event. 

This page will be updated as more details come in. 

The last major eruptive activity in the island chain was when Soufriere Hills on the island of Montserrat erupted unexpectedly, demolishing the capital city of Plymouth in 1995. Other submarine volcanoes may have exhibited minor activity recently, including the humorously named volcano, Kick 'em Jenny,

 

Kilauea Roars Back to Life!

****BREAKING****

**UPDATE 12/28/2020**

There has been no significant change lately, except that weak summit inflation briefly dipped to deflation, and then back to inflation again. Down rift in the LERZ, the magma supply appears to be favoring the summit eruption, and gradual inflation is now trending towards deflation. 

The lava lake level has remained steady, and the 'island' of cooled rock that has been floating on the lava lake continues to circulate and shrink over time. 

The last active vent has 2-3 small steams of lava pouring out, and SO2 output has decreased significantly within the last day. 

All updates can be found here at Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (usgs.gov)

**UPDATE 12/26/2020**

The lava lake rose to the level of the North fissure, and appears to have stopped it. Lava appears now to be draining back into the fissure, as a 'crust ledge' has formed around the lava lake, and the molten lava is lower than the ledge. The East fissure is slowly spattering lava out back into the lake. It is entirely possible given these developments that the eruption ceases within the next several days or weeks, as the lava lake cools, and the pressure in the shallow magma chamber decreases.

Thermal Time-lapse from HVO on 12/26/2020 shows the inundation and 'death' of the North fissure, while activity from the East (lower fissure resumes).

Summit inflation has also slightly resumed, which could be due to the North fissure now being 'plugged' or receiving lava back into it. 

Summit changing from deflation to inflation, a DI event.

What this means for now is not certain, as this could be a minor inflation, deflation event, or could signal a positive pressure change. The next few days should be telling.

Down rift at Puʻu ʻŌʻō, a slight deflationary trend has been noted, likely due to lack of fresh magma supply as it erupts from the summit. 

**UPDATE 12/22/2020**

The lava lake continues to rise, and it's surface is just beginning to overtake the North fissure's edifice. Hawaii health officials have begun resuming 'vog' (volcanic fog) warnings to residents.

By tomorrow, a new dynamic in the lake should unfold as the magma source becomes lower than the lava lake surface. Spatter cones may form, the lava lake may continue to rise, or it may stop and simply circulate. There is no way of knowing at this point. Summit deflation is consistent with magma release, with the latest subsidence readings at about 0.10 meters in the last several days.

Deflationary event post-fissure eruption and lava lake formation. Copyright HVO.

Down rift to the Lower East Rift Zone (LERZ), the inflationary trend near the 1983-2018 Puʻu ʻŌʻō vent continues a steady upward inflationary trend, apparently unaffected by the summit action at Halema'uma'u caldera. Time will tell if eruptive activity resumes at both vents, although at this point, HVO does not seem overly concerned with this.

Current inflationary trend at Puʻu ʻŌʻō. Copyright HVO.

HVO had been weighing raising the alert level at Kilauea in recent days/weeks, and purportedly were about to do so the night of the eruption, when the eruption occurred suddenly. 

Neighboring Mauna Loa was raised to Yellow alert after the cessation of Kilauea's long-lived eruption which began in 1983 and ended in late 2018. 

Lava lake surface approaching main fissure vent during 12/21-12/22, 2020.

The next few days should give an indication as to whther this lava lake and eruption will be sustained, or short lived. A minor magma intrusion did occur earlier this month at shallow depth, and on occasion, these do result in minor effusive eruptions. 

More updates will follow. 

**UPDATE 9:06pm HST 12/21/2020**

The latest image shows that the lava lake has risen even further. The rate of rise has slowed either due to less lava output, or due to the diameter of the crater widening as levels rise. It appears at least one fissure is issuing lava from beneath the lava pool surface, while two fissures on the crater rim are continuing to issue lava as well. Earlier reports indicated one fissure had ceased, but it is difficult to tell from the images whether this is still the case.

It is still unknown how long the eruption will continue for, and whether other phases will occur.

At this time there is minimal danger to the public as, according to HVO, "The eruption has stabilized" and ash emissions have ceased. HVO lowered the aviation color code from RED to ORANGE in response, after the former water lake had been completely evaporated and lava/water interactions ceased. 

**UPDATE 12:05PM HST 12/21/2020**

Animated GIF From HVO shows the rapid rise of the lava in the crater.

**UPDATE 11:00am HST 12/21/2020**

The caldera floor has now been filled up to the N eruptive fissure, according to the latest Summit Webcam shot (the quality is low, and the HVO web server appears to be under some stress at the moment).

It appears the SW fissure may now be underneath the lava lake, and that the lava lake is now nearly up to the point of overtaking the largest fissure at the N wall of the caldera. The lava lake has greatly exceeded the level of the former water lake.

Image from approximately 8am HST

It is not known how long the eruption will continue.

 Image from about 11am HST

As you can see above, the lava lake is rapidly rising. If the eruption continues throughout the day, there is the possibility that it will overtop the new collapse crater and fill the caldera in further.

   

**UPDATE 8:00am HST 12/21/2020**

According to USGS, the eruption currently consists of three crater wall fissure vents, and the lake is completely gone. A lava lake is forming within Halema'uma'u crater. The eruption so far is limited to the summit, although it is unclear whether any activity may start down rift. 

The eruption in 2018 was spurred by rapid summit lava drainage down rift to Pu'u'O'O crater, which then drained further down the LERZ to the Leilani Estates area. Given that magma still exists down rift from that eruption, and that it is still reasonably hot, it is always possible that the 2018 system can receive a new injection of magma. 

It is too soon to tell what the return of a summit lava lake will mean, or if this eruption will be long lived, or a shorter episode resulting from the minor magma dike intrusion a couple weeks ago. The eruption could go for only days, or go for on for weeks to years. The previous eruptive period on Kilauea was from 1983-2018, with lava present first at  Pu'u'O'O, and then simultaneously with Halema'uma'u, ultimately resulting in the LERZ fissure eruption.

**UPDATE 11:57pm HST 12/20/2020****

Local News now reporting Hawaii Island erupting again, new eruption in Halema'uma'u (khon2.com)

A 4.4 Mag temblor was recorded downrift on the LERZ preceding the summit eruption. It is unclear how this is related at this time.

***UPDATE 11:09pm HST 12/20/2020****

HVO Has now raised the alert level to RED for Kilauea. Kīlauea - Volcano Updates (usgs.gov)

Shortly after approximately 9:30 p.m. HST, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) detected glow within Halemaʻumaʻu crater at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano. An eruption has commenced within Kīlauea’s summit caldera. The situation is rapidly evolving and HVO will issue another statement when more information is available.

Accordingly, HVO has elevated Kīlauea’s volcano alert level to WARNING and its aviation color code to RED.

Alert levels and aviation color codes are explained here: https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/volcano-hazards/about-alert-levels

HVO continues to monitor the volcano closely and will report any significant changes.

Stay informed about Kīlauea by following volcano updates and tracking current monitoring data on the HVO web page (https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/volcano-updates) or by signing up to receive updates by email at this site: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vns2/.

HVO is in communication with Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park as this situation, which is taking place within the park, evolves.

HVO is in contact with the County of Hawai‘i Civil Defense Agency.

Recent Observations:

For the past several weeks, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) has recorded ground deformation and earthquake rates at Kīlauea Volcano’s summit and upper East Rift Zone that have exceeded background levels observed since the conclusion of the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption and summit collapse.

Beginning in September 2020, increased rates of uplift were observed by GPS stations in Kīlauea’s upper East Rift Zone. In the past month, increased uplift has also been measured at GPS stations in Kīlauea’s summit region. While uplift related to post-collapse inflation of the summit reservoir has been occurring since March of 2019, rates have been steadily increasing in recent months and are currently higher than they have been since the end of the 2018 eruption.

In late November 2020, increased earthquake rates began when seismic stations recorded an average of at least 480 shallow, small-magnitude earthquakes (97% of which were less than or equal to magnitude-2) per week occurring at depths of less than 4 km (2.5 miles) beneath Kīlauea's summit and upper East Rift Zone. This compares to a rate of fewer than 180 per week following the end of Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption and through early November 2020.

On December 2, 2020, GPS stations and tiltmeters recorded a ground deformation event at Kīlauea’s summit. Accompanied by earthquake swarms, the patterns of ground deformation observed were consistent with a small dike intrusion of magma under the southern part of Kīlauea caldera. The injection resulted in about 8 cm (3 inches) of uplift of the caldera floor, and modeling suggests that it represented 0.4–0.7 million cubic meters (yards) of magma accumulated approximately 1.5 km (1 mile) beneath the surface. Though the intrusion did not reach the surface and erupt, it represented a notable excursion from trends observed in Kīlauea summit monitoring data streams following the end of the 2018 eruption.

On December 17, 2020, seismometers detected a notable increase in occurrence and duration of long-period seismic signals beneath Kīlauea’s summit, which are attributed to magmatic activity. Whereas this type of seismicity was observed on average once every few weeks following the 2018 eruption, rates have increased to over a dozen in the past several days.

Other monitoring data streams including volcanic gas and webcam imagery were stable until this eruption.

An earthquake swarm began on the evening of December 20, accompanied by ground deformation detected by tiltmeters. An orange glow was subsequently observed on IR monitoring cameras and visually beginning approximately 21:36 HST.

***Original post below***

10 minutes ago HST, Kilauea has now roared back to life, according to HVO.

This marks the first resumption of eruptions from Kilauea since the cessation of eruptive activity after the 2018 Leilani Estates/LERZ eruption, which destroyed over 700 homes and displaced twice as many people. 

It is unknown what role the water lake has had in the eruption at this time, however according to the above image, it appears to have been vaporized. There appears to be no trace of it in new images, and due to the time of night, is it unclear if a phreatic eruption has occurred, which was hypothesized. 

Current screen grab from HVO's Kilauea Summit Cam

More news will follow.

Right now, you can follow the Facebook page of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park for updates.

Kilauea was previously at Green alert, after a little over two years of quiescence. Following the 2018 eruptive episode, long periods of inflation were recorded, including a recent dike intrusion event. These events were apparently not enough for HVO to become concerned that a new eruption may take place, even though the intrusion was quite shallow, as had been many recent quakes.

Hawaii Island has been hit both by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the recent eruption of Kilauea in its Lower East Rift Zone, which erupted in the middle of a neighborhood development, and near a geothermal power planet, the Puna Geothermal Plant. This plant only recently reopened for power generation, and it is unclear whether or not renewed activity at Halema'uma'u will change this.

I expect that the aviation color code will be raised to orange/red, and that the local code be changed accordingly as well in the next USHS HVO Update. 

This is a developing situation, and more updates will be posted as the eruption progresses.

Mauna Loa is also on Yellow alert at this time. A recent deflation event at the summit may or may not have contributed to pressurization of Kilauea, but it is possible. Mauna Loa had been consistently inflating until just a few days ago when a dike intrusion was detected at Kilauea Summit. Whether this is a true correlation is a mystery at this time. 

Residents near the volcano should heed the warnings of local authorities, and evacuate immediately if necessary. Kilauea's behavior of late is not exactly predictable, and quakes have been detected down-rift of last as well. A 2.8 quake, and many smaller magnitude, but still over 2.0 quakes had been detected today down to Mauna Ulu, the site of the eruption preceding that of Pu'u'O'O in 1983.

This is a rapidly developing situation, and many new updates will be posted. 

Hawaiian local news is not yet reporting on the eruption. 

Quake Swarm And Rapid Surface Deformation Continues In Iceland

On Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, an ongoing swarm of concentrated temblor activity, coupled with rapid surface inflation is raising the possibility of the first volcanic eruption in nearly two centuries near the famed Blue Lagoon. The area has many geothermal features and is once of Iceland's largest producer of geothermal energy.

According to an article released on January 26th, 2020 on Iceland's Met Office website, "An inflation has been detected since January 21st and is centred just west of Mt. Thorbjorn on Reykjanes peninsula. The inflation is unusually rapid, around 3-4 mm per day and has accumulated to 2 cm to date. It has been detected both on continuous GPS stations and in InSAR images. The inflation is most likely a sign of magma accumulation at a depth of just a few km. If magma accumulation is causing the inflation, the accumulation is very small, with the first volume estimate is around 1 million cubic meters (0,001 km3)."

However, that was then, this is now...

Today's quake sequence now records larger quakes up to magnitude 4.4, with three others measuring 4.0, 3.4 and 3.2. Dozens of smaller magnitude temblors dare occurring at the moment.

Screenshot from Iceland Met Office

Today's activity marks a large increase from the initial activity. While magma accumulation has been confirmed, it is far too soon to say whether this will result in an eruption. The activity after the first rash of quakes subsided significantly in the past few days, but today it has surged with some of the strongest quakes in the sequence to date. 

The town of Grindavik lies near the swarm, as does the Blue Lagoon geothermal pools. If an eruption should occur, it would likely form along a SW-NE trend as a fissure eruption, as is the most common eruption type in this area. The lava would likely resemble a Hawaiian style effusive eruption. The area of activity is related to the Reykjanes volcanic system.

The last confirmed historical eruption in this system was a VEI 3 eruption in March of 1831, with two unconfirmed (VEI 0) eruptions in 1966 and 1970 - although the Smithsonian GVP may consider these to be doubtful. 

The Reykjanes system is part of the Mid-Atlantic rift, a spreading rift between the European and American tectonic plates, of which the entirety of Iceland is a result.

Taal Volcano in Philippines Has Phreatic Eruption

**LIVE CAM NOW AVAILABLE**



Three hours later, a stronger explosion occurred.

The last major eruption of Taal occured in 1965, which sent pyroclastic flows and tsunami style waves through the lake which surrounds its currently active center. This was one of the Philippines most deadly eruptions.

The current statement from PHIVOLCS is below:

Several social media posts have shown first hand footage and imagery:

The last historical eruption of Taal was in 1977 with a VEI of 2. The largest historical eruption occurred in 1965 with a VEI of 4, killing many.

The new activity suggests there has been new magma injected into the system. This does not necessarily mean that a larger eruption is imminent, but it does typically mean that enough magma that has a heat flashpoint with water got close enough to flash water into steam, creating the latest explosion.

Phreatic eruptions are the result of a minor (or major) volume of water coming into close contact with molten rock. The rock could be older 'crystal mush', or cooler magma which did not have enough gas content to erupt until it came into contact with a water source, or in rare cases fresh magma from the injection source.

Taal volcano has been inflating, and the lake temperatures in the middle vents fluctuating, for years so this eruption is not entirely surprising. PHIVOLCS is monitoring the situation closely, and will be providing updates as soon as they can.

In the last several minutes, it appears an even larger eruption is now underway.

*****UPDATE 1/12/2020*****

Lava fountaining is now observed in the main crater of Taal:

Everyone on the central island has been evacuated. There is not currently an evacuation mandate for the residents around the larger lake (the central crater lake is now completely obliterated).

The latest (Translated to English) update from PHIVOLCS:

"DOST-PHIVOLCS indicates an increase in Alert Level 4 (hazardous eruption imminent) from Alert Level 3 (magmatic unrest) to the current status of the Long Range. Starting at 5:30 pm (PST), volcanic activity is intensified which includes continuous eruption of steam-laden tephra columns with a height of 10 to 15 kilometers with occasional lightning and rainfall. ash extends north of the volcano to Quezon City. Volcanic tremor was also recorded starting at 11:00 am, with two earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 (6:15 pm) and 3.9 (6:22 pm) in Tagaytay City and Alitagtag, Batangas in force Intensity III.

In the event, DOST-PHIVOLCS raises Alert Level 4 to the state of the High Volcano where dangerous eruption is possible within hours to days. DOST-PHIVOLCS strongly recommends total evacuation from Taal Volcano Island and further evasion of hazardous or high-risk areas within a 14-kilometer radius from Taal Main Crater due to possible threat of having a pyroclastic density current (fast waves of very hot smoke and ash) and volcanic tsunami. Areas north of the Taal Volcano are advised to guard and beware of the effects of continuous and long-term rainfall. Civil aviation authorities should advise aircraft to avoid flying around the volcano because of the danger of ash and ballistic fragments from the eruption column. DOST-PHIVOLCS will continue to monitor the Taal Volcano's activity and release an update to the public."

Next update:

"Taal Volcano entered a period of intense unrest beginning with phreatic or steam-driven activity in several points inside the Main Crater at 1:00 PM of 12 January 2020 that progressed into magmatic eruption at 02:49 AM to 04:28 AM of 13 January 2020. This magmatic eruption is characterized by weak lava fountaining accompanied by thunder and flashes of lightning. At 2:00 PM yesterday, booming sounds were heard at Talisay, Batangas.

The Philippine Seismic Network has recorded a total of seventy-five (75) volcanic earthquakes in Taal region as of 5:00 AM, January 13, 2020. Thirty-two (32) of these earthquakes were felt with intensities ranging from Intensity II – V in Tagaytay City, Cabuyao, Laguna, Talisay, Alitagtag, Lemery and Bauan, Batangas. Such intense seismic activity probably signifies continuous magmatic intrusion beneath the Taal edifice, which may lead to further eruptive activity.

Alert Level 4 still remains in effect over Taal Volcano. This means that hazardous explosive eruption is possible within hours to days. DOST-PHIVOLCS strongly reiterates total evacuation of Taal Volcano Island and areas at high risk to pyroclastic density currents and volcanic tsunami within a 14-kilometer radius from Taal Main Crater. Areas in the general north of Taal Volcano are advised to guard against the effects of heavy and prolonged ashfall. Civil aviation authorities must advise aircraft to avoid the airspace around Taal Volcano as airborne ash and ballistic fragments from the eruption column pose hazards to aircraft. DOST-PHIVOLCS is continually monitoring the eruption and will update all stakeholders of further developments."

The following live feed is now available:

*****UPDATE 1/12/2020*****

The interest in Taal volcano has apparently brought he Smithsonian Global Volcano Program (GVP) offline, this is likely due to too much Internet traffic.

*****UPDATE 1/12/2020*****

There is now a live camera provided by rt.com https://www.rt.com/on-air/478090-taal-volcano-eruption-philippines/

*****UPDATE 1/13/2020*****

Taal volcano is still erupting. PHIVOLCS has recommended a 17-km (10.5 mi) exclusion zone around the eruptive center, which covers the towns and villages around the larger Lake Tall. Despite the urgent warnings from PHIVOLCS, some people are sneaking back to their homes in desperation, attempting to grab belongings or livestock.

Heavy ash mixing with rainfall has created a black sludge rain made of ash and mud which is making life miserable for many. The fine ash mixed with water is extremely heavy, so building collapses are now a serious risk. Ash suspended in air is hazardous to breathing, as volcanic ash is made of small volcanic glass shards. Inhaling these seriously damages lungs, so masks are essential.

PHIVOLCS is expecting a larger eruption 'within hours or days', which could end up being as large, or larger, than the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991.

Their latest update is below:

The main airport is reportedly reopened after the winds shifted to the SW, so there is an opportunity for some to flee the volcano while there is still time.

*****UPDATE FROM PHIVOLCS 1/14/2020  (Philippines Local Time)*****

"For the past 24 hours, Taal Volcano’s activity has been characterized by continuous eruption of the Main Crater due to magmatic and hydrovolcanic activity. This ongoing eruption generated 500-meter tall lava fountains topped by dark gray steam-laden plumes reaching approximately 2 kilometers tall that dispersed ash to the southwest and west of the Main Crater. Flashes of volcanic lightning were observed at the base of the degassing plumes this morning. New vents opened up on the northern flank where short 500-meter lava fountains, and within the main crater where steam plumes, have emanated.

Since the last update, heavy ashfall from the ongoing continuous activity of Taal Volcano has reportedly fallen on the municipalities of Lemery, Talisay, Taal, and Cuenca, Batangas.

The Philippine Seismic Network has recorded a total of two hundred twelve (212) volcanic earthquakes in Taal region as of 2:00 AM, January 14, 2020. Eighty-one (81) of these earthquakes were felt with intensities ranging from Intensity I – V in Tagaytay City, Cavite. Such intense seismic activity probably signifies continuous magmatic intrusion beneath the Taal edifice, which may lead to further eruptive activity.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission was measured at an average of 5299 tonnes/day on 13 January 2020.

Alert Level 4 still remains in effect over Taal Volcano. This means that hazardous explosive eruption is possible within hours to days. DOST-PHIVOLCS strongly reiterates total evacuation of Taal Volcano Island and areas at high risk to pyroclastic density currents and volcanic tsunami within a 14-kilometer radius from Taal Main Crater. Areas in the general north of Taal Volcano are advised to guard against the effects of heavy and prolonged ashfall. Civil aviation authorities must advise aircraft to avoid the airspace around Taal Volcano as airborne ash and ballistic fragments from the eruption column pose hazards to aircraft. DOST-PHIVOLCS is continually monitoring the eruption and will update all stakeholders of further developments."

*****UPDATE 11/14/2020*****

A live video stream is now available at the top of the blog.

PHIVOLCS is now reporting that 'fissures and cracks' have appeared SW of Taal Volcano Island, near the coastal cities. This could mean that the magma intrusion under Tall extends beyond the boundaries of the larger caldera Lake Taal. This of course could mean that a much larger eruption is possible.

I did look up the names of the mentioned towns on Google Earth, and all but one were closely clustered to the SW, which may suggest that these reports are accurate, and that new cracks and fissures are opening up a long distance from the central eruptive vent. Time will tell. If this is true, the magma chamber has made multiple paths to the surface, and effusion of lava will be likely.