Unrest in Iceland As Reykjanes Enters New Era

 REYJANES - ICELAND

The recent unrest at Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula has generated a lot of media attention, not to mention increasing the stress levels of those unfortunate enough to be on the receiving end of the unrest in Grindavik. Grindavik was evacuated following the events of November 10th, 2023, where a series of extremely strong quakes coupled with a rifting and dike emplacement event left the town with large fissure cracks running in a NE/SW direction, damaging roads, infrastructure, water and power services. Many apartments and homes are now uninhabitable and will need to be rebuilt.

The fissure/rift is estimated to be some 15km/9mi long, and several meters wide. 

This was initially thought to be the beginnings of an imminent eruption, however that has not come to pass. Instead, the fissure magma supply appears to have slowed or been cut off, which will likely result in solidification of the dike, at least pertially.

Inflation at the Svartsgeni Power Plant area, which was responsible for the current series of events after accumulated magma found its way into the current dike, now continues at an accelerated pace. Magma intrusion below Svartsgeni is espimated to contribute to an averge land rise of 1 cm per day. At this rate, it is only a matter of time until the inflation reaches the level of the Nov 10th event. 

If the inflation does reach this

it is probable that if the status quo continues, and eruption may present to the West of the Svartsgeni power plant, or perhaps migrate further to the East into the previously formed dike. It is impossible to know at this time. 

The Reykjanes peninsula (of which the Icelandic capital of Reykjavik is situated on the NE portion), is now entering into an assumed 'Volcanic Dynasty' which may last several hundred years, according to experts. The last cycle of volcanism on the peninsula ended around 1200 AD, after the settlement of Iceland (some eruptions are reported in ancient Icelandic historical sagas/records) after a long period of unrest. 

Volcanologists appear certain that this occurs in regular phases on the peninsula, driven by the rifting between the North American plate, and the Eurasian plate. The two plates are moving away from each other at around the rate that human fingernails grow per year. This eventually results in the creation of cracks through which the mantle plume under Iceland can inject magma to fill the gaps. This is what is thought to be occurring now underneath the peninsula.

If the current sequence of events does result in an eruption, it will likely happen near the end of December or the first couple weeks of January. However this is not a certainty as volcanoes don't always behave how we expect them to, there are simply too many variables.

In the event that a major or minor eruption does happen around the Svartsgeni power plant, or the nearby town of Grindavik, this will plunge the peninsula and the capitol into a new era of turbulence for the island nation. Residents that may be forced to locate will need to go *somewhere* and permanent solutions for housing will likely be needed - similar to the recent destruction in Hawaii's 2018 eruptions, and the 2023 loss of Lahaina, Maui, to fires (not volcano related).   

In Hawaii, it has been several months since the Lahaina disaster, and a little over 5 years since the Kilauea East Rift Zone eruption that resulted in the loss of over 700 homes, displacing thousands of residents. 

Iceland's situation is being closely monitored.