Mauna Loa - Is the Next Eruption Near?

Mauna Loa in Hawaii is the world largest volcano by volume. Rising from the sea floor to its summit, it is one of the largest mountains in the world as well, from foot to summit, being about 56,000 ft... many times taller than even Mt. Everest! It also happens to be Hawaii's most active volcano, although you wouldn't know it given its recent slumber. It actually erupts more often than Kilauea, last having erupted about the same time that Kilauea started its current eruption, in 1984, a year after Kilauea started its current eruption. This eruption cause massive lava flows that paved over towns/villages, and caused a lot of property damage (hence the big islands ridiculous insurance prices).

Mauna Loa has erupted 33 times since 1843 (and many many times before) making it one of the worlds most active and massive volcanoes.

Mauna Loa has been mostly quiet since its last eruption. The volcano currently has some active fumeroles, hot springs, and still-degassing areas from the last eruption, but that may be about to change, as HVO has detected heightened seismicity and inflation of a shallow magma reservoir. Could Mauna Loa be gearing up for another eruption? It is probable, as Mauna Loa is 'overdue' for an eruption.

HVO's current reporting of Mauna Loa indicates that deformation has been mostly dominated by slow south-easterly motion of its south flank (toward the active Kilauea volcanic complex), but more recently, increased inflation of about 1cm/year at the summit caldera, which does indicate new magma injection, and a possible precursor to an eruption in the near future. It is definitely worth keeping an eye on Mauna Loa.

While it is highly unlikely that an eruption of Mauna Loa would cause any human casualties, the potential for massive amounts of property damage, and damage to ecosystems on the island is high. During the 1984 eruption, vast swaths of land were covered by lava, and in some areas, houses were built on these lava flows, which have a high likelihood of getting hit by a lava flow again. Any areas that did not have a lava flow would be at risk due to lava pooling or gravity drawing in a flow.

The next eruption of Mauna Loa would likely be quite a sight to behold. Most volcanic eruptions in Hawaii do not generate pyroclastic flows, or anything more than fast or slow moving pahoehoe lava flows, fissure eruptions, however there have been cases of crater forming eruptions that do prove a bit dangerous. I for one will be keeping a close eye on Mauna Loa, as the eruption will be spectacular, no matter what the mountain does. And the fact that Hawaii has some of the best webcam coverage of its volcanoes means that many would get to see the eruption take place in real-time! Stay tuned!

Alaska's Veniaminof Volcano Raised to Alert Level Orange

AVO has raised the alert level of Veniaminof volcano in Alaska to alert level orange. This follows after about a week or so of "yellow" status as seismic swarms were detected underneath the large stratovolcano. Steaming was previously noted at its central cone, and corresponded with heightened seismicity.

The Orange alert occurred within the hour of this blog post, after satellite data showed a thermal anomaly on the volcano's surface.

AVO's statement is below:

"Elevated surface temperatures observed in satellite images of Veniaminof Volcano this morning at 13:25 UTC (05:25 AKDT) indicate an eruption at the intracaldera cone is likely underway. AVO is thus raising the Aviation Color Code and Volcano Alert Level to ORANGE/WATCH. Seismic tremor continues and is indicative of low-level effusive activity and small explosions. No ash plumes have been observed this morning although clouds have obscured web camera views of the summit.

AVO has been monitoring Veniaminof closely since elevated levels of seismicity became persistent on June 8. Steam plumes issuing from the intracaldera cone have been observed in web camera views since then, but so far no ash emissions have been confirmed. Recent eruptions of Veniaminof Volcano have all occurred from vents located on the intracaldera cone and were characterized by brief bursts of ash emission and small explosions. Ash plumes associated with this type of activity are typically diffuse and generally do not reach more than 20,000 feet above sea level. Ash fallout is typically limited to the flanks of the volcano. Minor emissions of steam and ash may persist for for weeks to months.

The last episode of more energetic activity occurred in 1993-94 when an ash plume rose to about 18,000 feet above sea level and small lava flows poured onto glacier ice around the intracaldera cone. An eruption in 1983-84 produced an ash plume that reached about 25,000 feet above sea level."

It is possible that the interaction of molten rock and ice can cause the emission of very fine ash, much like the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland, 2010. However this volcano is not in the same volcano-tectonic situation and likely will produce a smaller, shorter lived eruption than its Nordic cousin.

Volcanoes on Alaska's Aleutian peninsula are not typically deadly, as the area is sparsely populated, although they do sit directly under a heavily used airway. Airplanes are frequently diverted out of harm's way when an Alaskan volcano erupts, sometimes causing major inconvenience for air travel and freight.

You can check out the updates here:

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Veniaminof.php

The eruption of Veniaminof brings the number of currently erupting U.S. volcanoes to about 5 (three are in Orange Alert status, two are in Yellow).

The eruption History according to the Smithsonian does list at least on VEI 6 level eruption, but typically they have been level 1-2.

Is Nicaraguas Cerro Negro Awakening?

NICARAGUA

Reports are coming in from the Smithsonian GVP about increased seismicity at Cerro Negro, a very young pyroclastic cone in Nicaragua's state of Leon. Cerro Negro is the youngest of several cinder cones in the region, and one of the newest volcanoes of South America. Since its birth in 1850, it has been one of Nicaragua's most active volcanoes generating frequent ash fall and lava flows.

The statement from the Smithsonian GVP on social media is:

"Yesterday the Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER), reported elevated seismicity and the onset of tremor. RSAM had increased approximately 7 times the average value (of 14 to 60 units). Our last GVP Monthly report noted that from 2005 to 2011, RSAM rarely reached above 30 units (http://www.volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=344070&bgvn=1&rnum=region14&snum=nicarag&wvol=cerroneg&tab=1#bgvn_3701).

INETER issued recommendations to municipal and civil defense authorities to restrict access to the volcano due to changed seismicity. Between 15:35 and 17:31 yesterday, a total of 49 small magnitude EQs were detected, however, they were too small to locate."

The post was accompanied by a picture (below) of the current seismograph that has scientists alerting the area to the possibility of an eruption.

The Smithsonian GVP characterizes Cerro Negro as last having erupted in 1999, and had seismic episodes up until around 2003. Since then it has remained relatively quiet.

Image from Google Earth showing the latest satellite photos of Cerro Negro, Nicaragua. 

If Cerro Negro does erupt, it will likely not be a danger to the general population, aside from fine ash fall in the near cities. People in the area would be well-advised to stay indoors if this were to occur, or wear breathing masks and googles outside. Volcanic ash consists of very fine glass-like particles that can cause severe respiratory distress (due to your lungs being cut up) and can cause severe eye irritation and damage for the same reasons. The ash fall would likely not travel for too far in this case, as it is much denser than say, the ash erupted at Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, which generated fine ash due to its lava colliding with ice.

If Cerro Negro erupts, I'll try and update this post with some pictures and/or webcam links!

Copahue Volcano In Chile Raised to Red Alert

Chile's Copahue Volcano, which also shares its summit with neighboring Argentina, has been raised to alert level "RED" by Southern Andes Volcanological Observatory (OVDAS) after strong eruptive activity today. The volcano became restless a couple of weeks ago when tremor and minor steam, gas, and ash emissions were observed. A Facebook statement from the Smithsonian GVP stated:

"...Red Alert status was maintained and increased seismicity was reported in yesterday's report by the Southern Andes Volcanological Observatory (OVDAS). Approx 130 EQ were recorded per hour (mostly hybrid but some spasmodic tremor); these were shallow events. Last year the seismic network was expanded to include a new station (the 3rd in the network) located across Argentina's border, expanding early warning capabilities. (http://www.perfil.com/ediciones/ciencia/-201212-740-0057.html) Dated 28 May 2013, this photo was available from Argentina's publication "La Voz" (http://www.lavoz.com.ar/noticias/sucesos/exodo-pobladores-ante-posible-erupcion-volcan-copahue#). — at Caviahue-Copahue."

Copahue volcano is characterized by the GVP here:

"Volcán Copahue is an elongated composite cone constructed along the Chile-Argentina border within the 6.5 x 8.5 km wide Trapa-Trapa caldera that formed between 0.6 and 0.4 million years ago near the NW margin of the 20 x 15 km Pliocene Caviahue (Del Agrio) caldera. The eastern summit crater, part of a 2-km-long, ENE-WSW line of nine craters, contains a briny, acidic 300-m-wide crater lake (also referred to as El Agrio or Del Agrio) and displays intense fumarolic activity. Acidic hot springs occur below the eastern outlet of the crater lake, contributing to the acidity of the Río Agrio, and another geothermal zone is located within Caviahue caldera about 7 km NE of the summit. Infrequent mild-to-moderate explosive eruptions have been recorded at Copahue since the 18th century. Twentieth-century eruptions from the crater lake have ejected pyroclastic rocks and chilled liquid sulfur fragments."

Image posted by Smithsonian GVP showing ash eruption from Copahue on May 28th.

The last eruption of Copahue volcano was in the year 2000, so it has not erupted for about 13 years or so.

Chile lies along the so-called "Ring of Fire" and is prone to frequent eruptive activity from its many active volcanoes. 

AVO Reports Possible Eruption From Pavlof Volcano [UPDATED 6/10]

Pavlof volcano on the Aleutian Peninsula of Alaska has entered an eruptive phase after increased seismicity and thermal anomalies detected in satellite data. A Facebook post from USGS issued the following statement today (although a bit late).

"On May 13, 2013, USGS-AVO reported that seismic activity at Pavlof increased that morning, along with the presence of an intense thermal anomaly at its summit. The Alert Level is "Watch;" Aviation Color Code Orange.

Similar patterns of seismicity and elevated surface temperatures have previously signaled the onset of eruptive activity at Pavlof. Although not yet visually confirmed, a low-level eruption of lava has likely begun from a summit vent. No ash clouds have been detected."

An overflight by a pilot has confirmed the presence of a summit spatter cone, and advancing lava flow. (seen below in a picture from AVO, Photograph by Brandon Wilson). The last eruption from Pavlof was in 2007.

Google Earth snapshot of Pavlof and Pavlof Sister volcanoes.

The Smithsonian GVP characterizes the volcano of being capable of Strombolian eruptions, and explosive eruptions. This eruption currently appears to be mostly effusive, or possibly Strombolian, although it's a bit unlikely that we'll get to see any great nighttime shots.

Pavlof joins Cleveland Volcano in the 'currently erupting' club of Alaskan stratovolcanoes, as earlier this month, Cleveland let out a nice explosion that was strong enough for air traffic to be diverted around the volcano (aside from this minor annoyance, that's pretty typical of Cleveland).

There are no major human populations immediately near Pavlof, although the town of Aleutian East Burrough with a population of around 2700+ lies about 12 miles SSW of the volcano. Damage to this area is unlikely, although if the volcano does have an ash eruption, ash fall could affect the area.

*****UPDATE 5/29*****
AVO has lowered Pavlof to alert level Yellow (Advisory) after a few days of inactivity and lower seismic readings. AVO's statement reads:

"Over the past three days, the eruptive activity at Pavlof have greatly declined. Seismic tremor and small discrete explosions are no longer detected in seismic and pressure sensor data. Satellite observations show no evidence of elevated surface temperatures, volcanic gas or ash emissions. There have been no visual observations from pilots or web cameras of any eruptive activity. Consequently, the Aviation Color Code was reduced to Yellow and the Volcano Alert Level to Advisory today (28 May) at 12:50 AKDT (20:50 UTC)."

It is still possible for the volcano to continue its eruption. Past eruptions have had periods of intense explosion, followed by lulls in activity.

*****UPDATE 6/10*****

Activity has resumed at Pavlof. The following statement from AVO details the continuing eruption:

"Ash emissions have resumed at Pavlof starting at approximately 11:00 AKDT (19:00 UTC) this morning as seen in satellite data and observed by pilots. Weak seismicity beginning at 10:57 AKDT accompanied the emissions and is ongoing."

and:

"Ash emissions from Pavlof continue. Seismic tremor and explosion signals accompany the activity. Persistent elevated surface temperatures consistent with lava effusion were observed over the past day in satellite images. Satellite images from the last day also show an ash plume extending 12 miles (20 km) southeast of the volcano. This direction is consistent with low-level (less than 20,000 ft asl) winds."

So it appears that the volcano may erupt in 'spurts' and will likely continue erupting for some time. If anything changes I'll post about it!