Alaska Volcano Pavlof Waring Raised To RED Alert!! [UPDATED 6/4/14]

Wow! In the several years I have been covering volcanic eruptions, I have never once seen AVO raise a volcano to RED Alert, but this occurred yesterday as Pavlof Volcano, which has experienced unrest beginning May 31st was raised to the highest alert level. Massive explosions are now taking place. According to AVO on May 31st:

Image from June 2, 2014 from AVO, Eruption of Pavlof Volcano. Image copyright Christopher Diaz at northernXposed Photography.

"Elevated surface temperatures were detected at the summit of Pavlof volcano in satellite imagery this morning suggesting that the volcano is experiencing a low-level eruption with lava at the surface. A low level steam plume is visible in satellite imagery and in the FAA web camera located in Cold Bay. A pilot reported a gas and ash plume drifting north at 7,000 to 8,000 feet above sea level. Based on these observations AVO is raising the Aviation Color Code to ORANGE and the Volcano Alert Level to WATCH for Pavlof volcano."

And suddenly, yesterday, the alert was raised to RED:

"The low-level eruption of Pavlof has escalated. Seismic tremor increased starting about 2300 UTC today and pilots have recently reported ash clouds to 22,000 ft. ASL. Recent satellite images show a plume extending over 80 km east of the volcano."

The alert level of Red will mean that flights will have to divert, as the ash plume is quite large. No populations are at risk for this eruption, as it is in a very remote part of Alaska, however there is a small airstrip east of the volcano at the foot of another volcano, Dutton (which is currently inactive), and an associated port town named King Cove, with an estimated population of around 792 (according to the 2000 census, which is probably a wee bit out of date). It is possible this area will experience fine ashfall, which does carry risks of its own.

Another town that could potentially experience ashfall would be Cold Bay, which is around 15km NE of Cold Bay Volcano (which is either dormant or extinct), and approximately 60km ESE of Pavlof.

Unfortunately for eruption fans, there is no web cam pointed at the eruption. This could potentially change if the eruption continues and AVO sends out a team, but given weather, budget constraints, and the danger of Alaskan travel, this might be unlikely.

This eruption marks the largest in years, and will likely be of great scientific interest. It will be a pain for air travel, however, and there is no telling how long the eruption may last. The last eruption of Pavlof was in may 2013. Pavlof is one of Alaskas most active stratovolcanoes, with numerous historical eruptions. Some eruptions have been highly explosive, like this ones, and others have consisted of effusive fissure eruptions.

Eruption of Pavlof (Photo from Smithsonian GVP) in 1996.

 A red alert is defined by AVO: "RED: Eruption is imminent with significant emission of volcanic ash into the atmosphere likely OR eruption is underway or suspected with significant emission of volcanic ash into the atmosphere [ash-plume height specified, if possible]." Eruptions of this magnitude can have far-reaching effects as ash and gas circles the globe, as seen during the 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano, which grounded air travel over most of Europe, and stranded many travelers, not to mention, making a headache for Iceland residents caught in the ash clouds.

This brings the total number of Alaskan volcanoes experiencing heightened activity to four; Shishaldin, Veniaminof, Cleveland, and Pavlof.

If any significant changes occur, I will update this post. 

*****UPDATE*****

AVO has lowered the alert level back down to Orange due to a decrease in eruptive activity.

An FAA webcam yesterday recorded 'intense lava fountaining' from Pavlof. You can view the webcam here. 

AVO released the following statements:

6/3 (still Red)

"The eruption of Pavlof Volcano continues. After elevation to Aviation Color Code RED yesterday late afternoon, seismic tremor began to decrease somewhat about 0800 UTC (11 pm AKDT) last night. Nighttime web camera images from Cold Bay showed intense lava fountaining at the summit and incandescence from the spatter-fed lava flow on the north flank. Seismic tremor increased again this morning and web camera images and pilot reports indicated the ash and steam plume up to 24,000 ft. ASL. Following an overnight shift in wind direction, the main plume is currently being carried south-southwest of the volcano. Lower-level winds (below 10,000 ft) extend west-southwest and may be carrying trace amounts of ash. There are no reports of ash falling in nearby communities."

Photo from AVO, Pavlof eruption with lava fountaining, early June 3, 2014, as viewed from Cold Bay. Photo courtesy of Robert Stacy.

6/4 (lowered to Orange)

"AVO is reducing the Aviation Color Code to ORANGE and the Volcano Alert Level to WATCH for Pavlof Volcano. Although the eruption of Pavlof continues, seismic tremor has deceased over the past 12 hours and has remained relatively steady throughout the day at a much lower level than that of yesterday. Recent satellite data and web camera views of the eruption plume indicate that there are now two distinct parts of the plume. The part of the plume that reaches high above the volcano appears to be mainly steam and gas with minor ash present, extending south of the volcano. Additionally, pyroclastic flow activity on the north flank is producing diffuse ash emissions that result in areas of hazy air, with variable concentrations of ash below 10,000 ft. Low-level winds are likely to disperse this ash to the west-southwest with no more than trace amounts accumulating. There are no reports of ash falling in nearby communities. Hazardous conditions exist on the north flank and north side drainages heading on the volcano due to continued pyroclastic and lahar activity. Ash in the vicinity of the volcano remains a hazard to local air traffic. AVO will continue to closely monitor the activity at Pavlof. With the eruption ongoing, conditions can change rapidly, and the possibility remains for large, more ash-rish (sic) plumes to develop with little or no warning."

Antarctic Ice Melt Could Unleash Volcanoes

The news on the environment lately hasn't been very good. Climate change has reached a tipping point with over 400ppm carbon in the atmosphere (a tipping point scientists have said is the point at which man-made changes to the climate become irreversible). Ocean acidifcation is reaching epic proportions and wreaking havoc on the oceans ability to sustain life. And to top that all off, scientists now say that the ice sheets in Antarctica have 'reached the point of no return' and their gradual slide into the ocean will raise sea levels by up to 30 feet (10m) in the coming two centuries.

Oh, but they forgot about volcanoes!

As has been speculated in a much smaller environment, 'post-glacial rebound', the process where land raises (in some cases rapidly) due to the absence of ice, could result in more frequent volcanic eruptions. This has been theorized in places like Iceland, where 'seasonal' volcanism sometimes occurs (although, of course, not always). The theory goes something like this: If you have a large volcanic system that is covered by thick layers of ice, the weight of that ice presses down the volcano and surrounding crust, thus containing any surface volcanic activity.

We do  know that volcanoes can erupt under ice. Such eruptions can create devastating ash clouds such as the one emitted during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, and others leave flat topped mountains called 'tuyas', which formed when volcanoes erupted under the ice, but never broke through to the surface. Tuyas are common volcanic mountains in Western Canada in volcanic complexes such as the Tuya Volcanic Field, and other systems.

But we're not talking about Tuyas, we're talking about large stratovolcanoes. Really big ones.

You wouldn't think of Antarctica as the first place to find active volcanoes, but you'd be wrong. In fact, we don't even know how many active volcanic systems exist in Antarctica, and which ones might be active far beneath the ice. Only recently has some technology been able to scan beneath the ice sheet, but these scans only reveal topography. Not heat, or chemical composition of the rock to tell us where certain spots might be. So the question of crustal rebound reaches a new level of uncertainty with Antarctica.

Antarctica does have at least one historically active volcano, and possibly several more. Mt Erebus is the most active in Antarctica with many historical eruptions documented since the 1970's, however other volcanoes have been spotted with fumerolic activity, and some are suspected to have had minor eruptions in historical time. What's occurring beneath the ice sheets however is anyone's guess. And in the next couple hundred of years, if crustal rebound truly does allow for easier magma flow to the surface, we'll probably find out if there are any more.

Mt St Helens Is Inflating Again

It appears that Mt St Helens is experiencing gradual re-inflation of its magma chamber, leading some to feel concern that the volcano will erupt again in the near future. St Helens last eruptive period ended in 2008 with a dome building event, which consisted of slow extrusion of a central lava dome, and occasional ash fall due to collapse of the dome. The current inflation period does not indicate an eruption is imminent, although it does significantly raise that possibility.

It is common for volcanoes to immediately begin 'recharging' after the end of eruptive activity. Other volcanoes that display this behavior are volcanoes such as Hawaii's Mauna Loa, or Kilauea, which experience frequent eruptions and deflation/inflation (DI) events. Mauna Loa began to inflate immediately after its 1983-84 eruption, stopped in 2009, and gradually resumed inflating in 2010. There are no current indications despite this inflation that an eruption of Mauna Loa is imminent, however it is a cause for vigilance.

St Helens erupted in May 1980 after bulging was detected on its north flank, followed by a massive collapse and associated eruption. It is one of the largest eruptions in recent US history, and is frequently used as a comparison benchmark for other volcanic eruptions. Monitoring of Cascade range volcanoes, and other US volcanoes was stepped up after the 1980 eruption, as the US finally realized the threat that monitored volcanoes can present. St Helens was monitored prior to its eruption, and warnings were issued that the volcano might erupt, but sadly some 57 people were killed and up to 250 homes were destroyed in the famous eruption.

USGS heavily monitors St Helens, as it is one of only several volcanoes on the West Coast with a recent history of eruption. In 1914-1917, California's Mt Lassen erupted, and Washington's Mount Rainier erupted in 1894.

Currently, all volcanoes on the West Coast of the US are 'green' meaning there are no warnings in place at the moment.

St Helens, Rainier, Shasta, and several other Cascade range volcanoes are considered a high risk for populations should they erupt. Rainier in particular is of major concern to scientists who warn that even without an eruption, it is at severe risk of collapse and associated hot mudslides known as 'lahars', which can cause major damage down well established canyons and drainage channels. There is an alert system in place, however it does not provide a lot of time to react should it go off.

Video Of Bison Fleeing Yellowstone Has Some Worried

Youtube video of bison seemingly running out of Yellowstone park along a road way has sparked speculation among the paranoid and reactionaries that Yellowstone is preparing for either a large quake or an eruption. This comes on the heels of a magnitude 4.8 quake that recently struck Yellowstone's northern area, which was the largest single event in several decades (although very small by any real standard, and barely felt by anyone). 

All of this paranoid and panicked speculation by non-experts has actually prompted the USGS to release a statement, explaining very clearly how Yellowstone is in no way near an imminent eruption. 

The bison on the video are doing what they do every year, without fail. They are migrating to better grazing grounds. And would it surprise you to know that animals sometimes run? Me either. The Internet has given paranoids, reactionaries, and sensationalist journalists and news stations all the tools it needs to generate clicks. Would it surprise you to know that literally every Yellowstone article I write gives me a large increase in traffic? It is always important to be critical of any article that claims 'The world will end'. It will end when it ends, and not a moment sooner.

As the USGS puts it:

"According to the park, any animal migrations are typical for this time of year. Most of the recent videos on the internet that show running bison were filmed weeks (at least) before Sunday's earthquake. Park spokesman Al Nash discusses this and other topics in a YouTube video."

So of course not only is the video out of context, but the people stirring this paranoia are doing it simply to get attention, and page clicks (I will myself admit, that due to the popularity of this subject, I did feel compelled to write about it, however, with the purpose of giving an ACCURATE account...).

In any case folks, you have NOTHING to worry about. Yellowstone has been rumbling away since the dawn of man with nary a peep, and it is one of the best monitored volcanoes on our planet. If anything was going to happen, not only would USGS (and myself) pick up on it and alert you immediately, but we would have far advanced warning.

Massive 8.2 Magnitude Quake Hits Chile

A massive 8.2 magnitude earthquake struck Chile off the coast of the city of Iqueque. A tsunami alert was issued, and tsunami waves hit along Chile's northern coastline. The tsunami wave is expected to affect Pacific islands in its path.



No reports of damages or injuries yet, but certainly this will change.

The 8.2 magnitude earthquake will likely disrupt volcanoes int he area, of which there are many. It is far too early to determine which ones may be affected. A large 8.0 quake several years ago did end up disrupting some volcanoes, and some theories point to the quake being responsible for the long-dormant volcano of Chaiten's eruption.

Many large aftershocks should be expected, and already several 6.0 and above have struck. The area will likely be highly unstable for several months. 

I will update this post as more news develops.

*****UPDATE*****

6 people were killed, and more were injured, although the total casualties seem very low. A prison was damaged, and up to 300 inmates have escaped. Over 130 of them have already turned themselves in. A tsunami warning was lifted for any lands in the suspected path, and no significant tsunami waves are expected. MANY aftershocks can be expected to follow. It is still unclear whether or not this quake will affect nearby active volcanoes, but it is a good bet that it will, eventually.